Jul 04
Updated 07.04.23 @ 6:14a
There’s something about the 4th of July that signals a shift within. It’s been this way for me since back in the high school days. Back then, the following week meant 2-a-days were beginning as a new football season was only a few weeks away. Fast forward to today, and I understand some of the big box retailers are preparing to display their fall and Halloween decor over the next couple weeks. SEC Media Days, the unofficial “official” start of the college football season gets rolling in Nashville on July 17th. Heck, before you know it, we’ll be producing our annual winter outlook.
Okay, back to present.
As the Nino continues to mature, we believe the rest of meteorological summer (through end of month August) continues to keep any significant or long lasting heat away from our neck of the woods. In addition, the dry stretch that typically develops at some point each and every summer is also behind us. Simply put, the next 6-7 weeks appear to run near normal from a temperature standpoint and slightly above to above normal from a precipitation perspective. Overall, I prefer to lean on the latest JMA monthly product.
July
Temperatures
Precipitation
August
Temperatures
Precipitation
As we look ahead to autumn, the early call is for a warmer than normal open to fall as a whole. Certainly fits the bill with recent autumn trends…
We note both the JMA and latest European Seasonal product going towards this mild look. More on the entire fall seasonal outlook over the next few weeks.
From our family to yours, we’re wishing you a blessed Independence Day! A fresh batch of storms arrive later Wednesday and our short-term update later tonight will handle the latest look there.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/04/brief-break-in-the-pattern-gives-us-time-to-look-ahead-to-the-remainder-of-met-summer-open-to-autumn/
Jul 03
Updated 07.03.23 @ 7:34a
For most, the long holiday weekend continues on for another couple days. Thankfully, after round upon round of rain and storms, a drier trend will develop today and for Independence Day, itself. While we can’t totally rule out a passing shower today (case in point north and northeast of the city this morning), coverage and intensity of precipitation the next 48 hours will be significantly reduced. I think any sort of rain Tuesday will be very hard to come by (“isolated” coverage at best).
A new frontal boundary will push into the state Wednesday and the Storm Prediction Center has already included a Slight Risk of severe weather by Wednesday afternoon into the evening.
In addition to a damaging wind threat, localized flash flooding is possible as the cold front pushes through the region.
Thereafter, yet again, “timing” will be on our side as a much drier airmass filters into the region just in time for the weekend. Both Friday and Saturday appear dry and comfortable with significantly lower humidity.
A renewed wet, stormy pattern kicks off for the 2nd half of the weekend into next week. Buckle up.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/03/timing-certainly-is-on-our-side/
Jul 02
Updated 07.02.23 @ 8:15a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/02/video-another-round-of-storms-this-afternoon-evening-then-we-dry-things-out-for-the-holiday-itself/
Jul 01
Updated 07.01.23 @ 9a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/01/video-busy-weather-pattern-continues-multiple-rounds-of-weekend-storms-including-severe-threat/
Jun 30
Updated 06.30.23 @ 7:40a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/30/video-dramatic-change-in-the-overall-pattern-to-wet-active-holiday-weekend-with-multiple-rounds-of-storms/
Jun 29
Updated 06.29.23 @ 12p
The storm complex currently entering IL will likely have a downstream impact on Indiana later this afternoon into the early evening hours. Several ingredients are in place that leads to a higher confidence in this storm cluster including a widespread damaging wind threat (55+ MPH gusts).
High resolution data continues to show this complex gaining steam as it rolls across central Indiana between 4p and 6p. We caution, these kind of storm clusters can pick up momentum downstream so it’ll be important to remain weather-aware and in position to act when (don’t think it’s a matter of “if” any longer) warnings are issued really anytime after 3p.
Ingredients are in play that may carry this wind machine across the entire central IN stretch and even into northern KY and southwestern OH by evening.
I’d recommend taking the opportunity to ensure your electronic devices are charged and severe weather safety plan is in place now prior to this activity moving in over the next few hours. Unfortunately the evolving look to current radar trends just after the 12p timeframe only raises confidence of this being a rather widespread damaging wind maker with resulting power outages.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/29/short-term-discussion-afternoon-storm-complex-with-heightened-damaging-wind-potential/
Jun 29
Updated 06.29.23 @ 7:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/29/busy-busy-busy-tracking-multiple-storm-clusters-and-heavy-rain-into-next-week/
Jun 28
Updated 06.28.23 @ 7:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/28/video-transitioning-into-a-wet-stormy-pattern-reviewing-long-range-guidance-into-the-last-month-of-meteorological-summer/
Jun 27
Updated 06.27.23 @ 7:32a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/27/evolving-wet-stormy-pattern/
Jun 26
Updated 06.26.23 @ 7:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/26/video-evening-storms-return-wet-pattern-sets-up-late-week/