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Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 04.04.21 @ 8:38a

First and foremost, we want to wish you and your family a blessed Easter Sunday. Weather will be absolutely gorgeous, including sunny skies and highs that will top out in the lower 70s this afternoon! Enjoy!

Widespread well above normal temperatures can be expected this week. Greatest deviation from normal will be found across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Large scale drier than normal conditions are on tap. Exception to this will be across the upper Midwest and central Gulf Coast region.
We forecast between 0.50″ and 1″ of rain to fall on most central Indiana lawns over the upcoming 7-day period.
An outbreak of severe weather is expected across the central Plains (starting Monday night and Tue) and into the lower MS Valley by midweek.

Forecast period: 04.04.21 through 04.11.21

High pressure will dominate our weather to open the forecast period. This will result in a gorgeous Easter Sunday and extend into the early portion of the work week. We’ll notice humidity levels slowly climbing and a few more clouds will be around, but otherwise very nice conditions will prevail through most of the daytime Tuesday. Unseasonably warm conditions can be expected throughout the week ahead. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase Tuesday night and coverage will really ramp up through midweek. While the bulk of the severe weather is expected south of here, we’ll want to keep an eye on the potential of a couple stronger storms here Wednesday PM. The slow moving system should push east of here Friday evening, allowing high pressure to build back in as we open up next weekend.

7-Day Outlook, AG Report, Client, Easter, Forecast Discussion, Rain, Severe Weather

April 2021 Outlook…

Updated 04.01.21 @ 7:43a

While April is getting off to an unusually cold start for a good chunk of the country, this (thankfully, for most) won’t be the theme for the month, as a whole. We anticipate a quick bounce back in the temperature department over Easter weekend and on into next week. We’ll let our shorter term products handle that and focus more on the month, overall, with this post.

Let’s take a look at some of the various modeling for the month of April.

JMA take-away: large scale drier than normal conditions with widespread warmth (exception being the immediate West Coast and Southeast).

CFSv2 take-away: widespread warmth through the central and north along with widespread drier than normal conditions (exception being the northern Rockies/ western Plains).

European Weeklies take-away: large scale drier than normal with warmth through the central, upper Midwest, and Northeast.

From a teleconnection perspective, you know we really like to key in on the NAO this time of year. Should that flip negative, then blocking would likely force a colder pattern into our immediate part of the country (can also lead to wet times, as well). That doesn’t appear to be the case this year- at least over the next few weeks. Perhaps what’s more interesting is the MJO as it’s showing signs of wanting to be more amplified throughout the coming weeks.

You get a transitional theme in the temperature department as the MJO traverses phases 4-7 this time of year:

The one constant (exception being Phase 7) is relative warmth throughout the Plains.

Given all of the above, we’re leaning towards a widespread warmer than normal month and relatively quiet month, as well, given the time of year.

Client, Long Range Discussion, Monthly Outlook