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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/24/video-strong-cold-front-shot-of-heavy-rain-prior-to-halloween/

Oct 23

Dinner Time Rambles: Prospects Of HVY Rain On The Increase And Brief, Yet Potent Early Season Arctic Jab…

• Filed under Arctic Cold, Autumn, Client, First Freeze, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Halloween, Harvest23, Heavy Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Rambles

• October 23, 2023

Updated 10.23.23 @ 5:45p

I. Today’s model suite continues to suggest quite the unsettled stretch of weather awaits for pre-Halloween festivities. I know, please don’t shoot the messenger. The culprit? A strong autumn cold front stalling out for a time in response to waves of energy riding along the boundary. The end result will likely be a widespread swath of 1″+ rains over the weekend with a more localized 2″+ band. Details will have to be fine tuned as we get closer, but folks with outdoor activities and ag/ harvest ’23 interests should plan on a rough stretch of weather in the Saturday through Monday timeframe.

II. The coldest air so far this fall season will come rushing in on the heels of all of the aforementioned rain in the 8-10 day timeframe. Today’s European guidance is going all-in on a potent early season “jab” of arctic air, including highs around freezing and lows deep into the 20s. Perhaps extreme? Certainly, but this also has merit given where the pattern is. Though this will likely only be a brief intrusion of bitter air (at least by early November standards), I’d certainly go ahead and plan on the growing season coming to a screeching halt in just a little over a week from today.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/23/dinner-time-rambles-prospects-of-hvy-rain-on-the-increase-and-brief-yet-potent-early-season-arctic-jab/

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/23/video-warm-up-this-week-eyeing-wetter-times-this-weekend-and-a-big-blast-of-chilly-air-to-close-october-open-november/

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/22/video-widespread-frost-gives-way-to-warmer-weather-in-the-new-week-ahead-potent-storm-around-halloween/

Oct 21

The Pending Halloween Pattern Transition And Initial Taste Of Winter…

• Filed under AG Report, Autumn, Client, Ensemble Discussion, First Freeze, First frost, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Halloween, Harvest23, Lake Effect Snow, Long Range Discussion, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Winter Storm

• October 21, 2023

Updated 10.21.23 @ 7:34a

The upcoming week will feature a pattern shift, albeit a transitional one, that will drive unseasonably warm temperatures north into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. This will be on the heels of the first widespread frost of the season Monday morning. Ah, Indian summer at its finest.

A couple of disturbances will try to make inroads into this ridge mid and late week, but will likely struggle in providing much in the way of precipitation or cooler air initially. As we push into the latter part of next week and the Halloween weekend, a larger storm system is anticipated to move east out of the Plains region. This storm will likely deliver the first widespread winter impacts (outside of the mountains of course) of the fall season.

Specifics will be fine tuned as we get closer, but we expect a widespread rain (perhaps a clap of thunder) here next weekend followed by sharply colder weather prior to Halloween, itself.

We’re left with a much different pattern to open November. This is the type regime that will likely lead to the first lake effect snow in the snow belt, drive the 1st widespread freeze into the Ohio Valley, and result in highs in the 40s in the wake of the frontal passage.

Farmers and those with ag interests, we’d suggest wrapping up harvest 23 efforts by mid next week if at all possible. Conditions will certainly become harsher and less favorable by next weekend. More to come…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/21/the-pending-halloween-pattern-transition-and-initial-taste-of-winter/

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/20/video-gusty-saturday-followed-by-a-frosty-start-monday-morning-warmer-week-on-deck/

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/19/video-damp-thursday-gives-way-to-a-gusty-saturday-a-lot-to-discuss-over-the-next-10-days/

Oct 18

Unsettled Weather Returns To Close The Work Week; Widespread Frost To Open The New Week…

• Filed under Autumn, Client, First frost, Forecast Discussion, Harvest23, Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather

• October 18, 2023

Updated 10.18.23 @ 6:17a

Today will start on the seasonally cool side with plentiful sunshine. We’ll note an increase in mud and high level clouds this afternoon that will eventually lower and thicken tonight. These clouds will signal rain by Thursday morning, and perhaps embedded thunder. The culprit? A cold front. This front will move through the state during the day Thursday.

Additional showers will follow Friday morning thanks to trailing upper level energy.

Most area rain gauges should expect to accumulate between 0.10” and 0.30” during the aforementioned time period but there will be some 0.50”+ exceptions.

Seasonally chilly air will flow in behind this system for the weekend. As high pressure settles overhead, the coldest night upcoming should be Sunday night/ Monday morning where widespread frost is expected across central Indiana. Most will wake up to temperatures between 33° and 35°.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/18/unsettled-weather-returns-to-close-the-work-week-widespread-frost-to-open-the-new-week/

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/17/video-new-seasonal-guidance-ups-the-ante-for-upcoming-winter-unsettled-close-to-the-work-week/