Jan 30
If you have travel plans across central Indiana Friday and Friday night, please make sure you leave plenty of time to get to your destination and prepare for a variety of precipitation types. In fact, it’s entirely possible (depending on what time of day you’re traveling) that you have to deal with rain across south-central Indiana and snow by the time you arrive into the northern Indianapolis suburbs, complete with an icy mixture “in between.”
Digging through the weather playbook for Friday into Saturday:
A cold front is expected to move through the region Friday morning, allowing a wind shift out of the north to arrive into the city in the early to mid morning Friday. We’ll have to be in “nowcast” mode Friday to determine just exactly how far south the front makes it as this will go a long way into determining precipitation types across central Indiana.
Ultimately, a wave of low pressure will move along the front Saturday, which will help milder air push north and result in a changeover from a wintry mix to all rain during the majority of the day Saturday. In fact, there’s the chance portions of central Indiana may not have to deal with much, if any, precipitation through the majority of the day Saturday- especially south. Before that, however, we’ll have to deal with a wide variety of wintry precipitation issues Friday and Friday night… Warmer low level air will be drawn northward and overrun the colder air at the surface Friday and Friday night. What will initially be a period of snow Friday will transition to an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain Friday night and all rain Saturday. That said, we note the milder push will be brief, and colder air will pour back into the region on gusty northwest winds Saturday night. This may result in a brief period of light snow Saturday night (not a big deal).
We think the latest high-resolution, short-term, NAM model (courtesy from the fine folks over at Weatherbell Analytics model suite) has a very good handle on accumulation ideas Friday and Saturday and is in best agreement with our analysis laid out above. This is a look at forecast snow accumulation between now and Saturday night, but we also note there will be some light sleet and freezing rain accumulation on top of any snow that falls Friday. As far as that snow goes, we think a 1-2″ band is laid down from the city and points north, increasing further as you travel into north-central and northern Indiana.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/30/as-promised-complicated-and-complex/
Jan 29
We posted earlier this morning on the near term (below) and Friday and Saturday remain quite challenging and complicated. Precipitation type and amounts will have to be resolved as we…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/29/a-word-about-early-next-week/
Jan 29
We’re going to enjoy another day of sunshine, but moderating temperatures (finally) will help being outdoors become a little more tolerable (we think we “warm” into the middle 20s today). That said, another winter weather maker is brewing and will result in an active Friday-Sunday ahead.
A cold front will sink south Thursday night and could result in a little light snow (not a big deal). As we move into Friday and Saturday, model data handles our sensible weather differently. Precipitation type will be highly dependent upon exactly where the cold front stalls. We want to show you the GFS as it depicts the variety of precipitation types. It should be important to note that the GFS, European, and Canadian, though different in their respected solutions this weekend, are close enough to go with a “blend” of all three models for our official forecast.
We think snow overspreads the region Friday morning and could deposit a quick couple inches across the metro area Friday. It’s as we get into Friday night and Saturday that we’ll note another (stronger) wave moving along the front. In response to this wave of low pressure, warmer air (both at the surface and aloft) will push north. Exactly how far north is still up for debate as a battle will be established with push back being provided from an area of high pressure across the upper Mississippi River Valley. We feel as if south-central Indiana will get in on some mixing issues with sleet and perhaps a cold rain Friday night into Saturday. Depending on how strong the wave of low pressure is will determine exactly how far north the rain line makes it. For now, we think Indianapolis and northern suburbs remain in a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and possible freezing rain through the majority of the day Saturday. That said, we do note this will warrant tight focus in the days ahead as any deviation from the track of the low or strength of the cold high to our north could greatly impact our weekend weather.
Finally, precipitation will begin to taper late Saturday night as the cold high to our north eventually wins out. It’s possible all of central Indiana deals with a quick pop of accumulating snow as precipitation ends Saturday night/ wee morning hours Sunday.
We stress that this is still a highly changing weather situation and most likely will require some “fine tuning” as we move forward. This morning we think heaviest snow (potentially approaching half a foot) falls across north-central Indiana, including Kokomo, Marion, and Lafayette. A wintry mix of all precipitation types will fall south of there, including the Indianapolis metro. South of I-70, we think rain will be the predominant precipitation type, with only a light accumulation of snow as precipitation ends.
As stated above, stay tuned…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/29/wintry-mix-issues-late-week-weekend/
Jan 27
A major battle is taking shape between two of the more respected mid range forecast models for the late week period, including Super Bowl weekend. The differences range from yet another wintry weekend, with a couple shots of accumulating snow to one that’s much milder and includes some rain. Operational guidance today has remained consistent with what each particular model has been saying for the past 24-48 hours, adding further complexity to the upcoming late week period. Usually we’d give a slight nudge towards the European output (warmer solution), but here in a bit we’ll tell you why we’re really not ready to hedge more towards one particular model over the other at this time frame. Instead, we want to give it a couple more days and see which model “gives in” to the other.
Let’s dive into the European output first.
We note both models in relative good agreement on Thursday night into Friday as light snow overspreads the region (not a huge deal, but potentially enough to make for a slippery Friday morning commute).
As we move into Saturday the European tracks a developing surface low much further north than the GFS, resulting in a milder solution across central Indiana and a forecast that would produce a rain to snow solution Saturday as cold air quickly pours back into our region, with enough snow, perhaps, to produce a light accumulation Saturday night. However, it’s important to note, most European ensemble members are colder than the operational run and this is something we’ll need to continue to monitor.
As we head into early early next week, the European forecast model remains bullish on a potential major winter storm, with a favorable storm track for heavy amounts of wintry precipitation across central Indiana. The time we’re eyeing for this next storm falls in the Monday night-Tuesday time period so we have plenty of time to monitor things and iron out the details…
Now, as we look at the GFS forecast model, we note a colder solution from start to finish. We have to raise an eye brow here as the track record of the GFS in the mid range is one that has been known to be biased too “flat” and too cold in handling similar patterns. Is that saying the GFS is wrong here? Absolutely not…nobody knows that at this juncture. It is saying we have to rely on experience and remember similar patterns of the past, including the way the model “corrected” itself with time as we drew closer to the particular event in most cases…
Nonetheless, similar to the European, the GFS delivers a round of accumulating snow Friday morning, but is flatter (colder) with the initial wave and also leads to quite the overrunning event through the Ohio Valley. As a matter of fact, we deal with two rounds of accumulating snow…Friday morning into the early afternoon and again Saturday morning, associated with yet another wave of low pressure.
Of interest, the GFS also sees the potential strong winter storm that could impact our neck of the woods early next week. Needless to say, the surface map next Tuesday morning would have snow lovers smiling in a big way should this come to fruition…
While we have many details to iron out late week and on into early next week, the overall weather pattern is one that we remain confident on and the results are cold and stormy (i.e. snowy) over the upcoming 10-14 day period. As a matter of fact, long range teleconnections suggest we remain colder than normal and stormy through the majority of February. In short, there’s really no let up in sight from the overall cold and wintry time of things Hoosiers have grown oh so accustomed to this winter…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/27/big-fight-late-week-into-the-weekend/
Jan 26
Today will be briefly milder as a nice southwesterly air flow develops and helps send temperatures close to 40 degrees for the city, itself. Though winds will be gusty, 40 degrees will seem awfully nice! Enjoy! It won’t last long though as our next major arctic front already has it’s eyes set on our region. In fact, we think snow showers and embedded heavier squalls arrive just prior to midnight. These will be short, but intense, bursts of snow and will be capable of producing white out conditions, as well as leading to a quick 1-2″ of fresh snow tonight for many across central Indiana.
Here’s a look at forecast radar tonight, showing the heavy bursts of snow during the overnight.
Winds will once again become a problem, gusting in excess of 30 MPH and helping drive in some dangerously cold air. We think we fall below zero early Monday morning (before the rush hour begins in earnest) and anticipate yet another horrible Monday morning commute.
This arctic air really tightens it’s grip heading into Tuesday and we think lows approach 15-20 degrees below zero Tuesday morning. Below zero readings make it as far south as the southern Appalachians.
We’ll deal with yet another, potentially more widespread, winter event late in the week. More on that in the coming days… Enjoy your Sunday!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/26/arctic-front-hits-tonight-with-wind-and-snow-squalls/
Jan 24
The first of three rounds of accumulating, wind-whipped, snow is blowing into central Indiana as I type this. We still think widespread 2-3″ totals fall across many central Indiana neighborhoods during the overnight, with snow ending from north to south between 6-8am. Additionally, blowing and drifting snow will be a huge concern and local white-outs/ near blizzard conditions will develop into the morning Saturday. Needless to say, if you don’t have to travel tonight or Saturday, it would be a great time to hunker down at home, start a fire, and enjoy friends and family!
Here’s a look at forecast radar during the “height” of the storm, most likely between 2-4a for most areas:
Snow will end Saturday morning, but we’ll have to contend with continued severe blowing and drifting, especially in central Indiana’s open country. Remain cautious if you must venture out. Winds will back around from the southwest during the wee morning hours Saturday to a colder (yet again) northwest direction late Saturday morning, resulting in another bitter feel to the air Saturday afternoon.
We’ll enjoy a brief calm period Saturday evening (despite continued gusty winds), but our meteorological eyes will already be poised to the northwest, focused on our next round of accumulating snow Sunday morning. We call this “warm advection” snow as it’ll fall on milder southwest winds ahead of yet another arctic front due in here Sunday night. This will likely be a “thumper” snow as additional accumulation Sunday of 1-3″ is a solid bet at this point- most of which falls within a 2-3 hour time period.
Sunday afternoon will likely turn drier (and briefly milder) before that “famous” arctic front slams into the region Sunday night. We think additional snow showers and embedded heavier squalls will accompany the frontal passage (FROPA) and could easily lay down yet another half inch to one inch of accumulation Sunday night/ early Monday.
All of this additional weekend snow will be capped off with some of the most brutally bitter air so far this season (and that’s obviously saying something, considering how cold it’s been). Gusty northwest winds will lead to continued blowing and drifting issues in the open country early next week, but produce dangerous wind chill values, colder than 30 degrees below zero from time to time. Additionally, overnight lows Monday night into Tuesday morning will likely fall to between 15 and 20 degrees below zero and highs on Tuesday will likely struggle just to make it to the 0 degree mark for a high…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/24/1st-of-3-rounds-of-wind-whipped-snow-this-weekend/
Jan 23
We wanted to take some time to focus solely on our next shot of accumulating snow due in here late Friday night into early Saturday morning. This will be a quick-hitter, but with snow ratios much higher than normal (thanks to the arctic air mass in place), it won’t take much moisture to fluff up a few inches of powder.
Before we get into the next snow, we can’t ignore what will be a growing concern as morning progresses into afternoon Friday. The pressure gradient will really begin to tighten between arctic high pressure to our south and the next cold front and associated low pressure to our north. West winds will increase and gust in excess of 30 MPH by early to mid afternoon. This will lead to concerns for blowing and drifting in the open country from the existing snow pack in place. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies will begin to cloud up later in the afternoon and evening.
A continued very windy evening will be coupled with light to moderate snow spreading south over the region late Friday night into Saturday morning. We note the heaviest snow likely to fall in the pre dawn hours Saturday and may become briefly heavy at times. We forecast 2-3″ of new snow with this system across all of central Indiana, but when you combine a strong west wind, shifting to the northwest Saturday morning, trouble will result. Significant blowing and drifting snow can be expected through the night and into Saturday. Travel will likely be very tough late Friday night into Saturday morning. Not only will we have to contend with severe blowing and drifting, but we’ll also have to deal with local white-out conditions.
The latest high resolution model data shows widespread snow across the region Saturday morning before snow tapers by mid morning from north to south.
As mentioned in posts from earlier this week, we’ll also deal with yet another round of accumulating snow for the second half of the weekend and we’ll have more on this tomorrow and Saturday…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/23/combo-of-snow-wind-likely-to-cause-problems/
Jan 22
An intense snow squall blew through central Indiana this evening, thankfully post-rush hour (what a horrendous situation we would’ve had on our hands had this snow burst arrived an hour…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/22/model-vs-reality/
Jan 22
We have enough to worry ourselves with tonight and again Friday night-Saturday, but many are wondering about what Sunday holds. The consensus of operational model data today is for a north track Sunday, keeping most of the heavy snowfall across northern Indiana. That said, is it the correct idea? We’re not ready to buy the extreme north trend just yet…
While anything is possible, the northward trend in operational runs today has me scratching my head a bit given the overall pattern. Current thinking here would suggest operational models “correct” south with time over the next couple days, but time will tell. The GFS ensembles help illustrate the wide variance with the track of Sunday’s snow storm (below). While the track of the system is still up for debate, confidence is growing on amounts just north of the low’s track that approach half a foot Sunday. Much more later!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/22/quick-remark-on-sunday/
Jan 21
The winter of 2013-2014 is off to a rip-roaring start and, as we’ve discussed in previous posts, the mid to long range data suggests we remain locked in an exceptionally cold and snowy pattern. Officially, as of this evening, the Indianapolis National Weather Service has posted some impressive stats (the full report can be found here), including:
As we look ahead to the upcoming 7-10 day period, we note a continuation of arctic reinforcements- each which will be plenty capable of adding to the snowfall total. Additionally, our cold air mass will only grow even more severe and bitter over time, including multiple days during the aforementioned period where central Indiana will go below zero. Finally, there have been many questions concerning a potential big storm centered on early February. I’m not sure where this rumor started, but it’s far too early to say with any sort of confidence any specifics around a possible big winter storm early February. That said, as we’ll get into briefly below, the pattern does appear to be aligning itself in a way where a widespread winter storm is possible somewhere across the eastern half of the country.
Okay, okay, back to the near term… Let’s start with tomorrow! After a cold and dry start to the day, our next arctic front will blow into the region during the evening. Arctic fronts are notorious for having bursts of heavy snow rates in a scattered fashion and this appears to be the case as the next arctic front moves through Wednesday evening. We bracket the hours of 5p-8p for the possibility of heavy snow bursts racing through central Indiana. While these won’t last long, they’ll likely be intense- capable of depositing a quick 1″-2″ of new snow on a gusty northwest wind within 30-60 minutes. White-out conditions and extremely heavy snowfall rates will accompany the heavier bursts of snow. Latest high-resolution model data shows the heavy snow bursts accompanying the arctic front tomorrow evening:
Thursday will be mostly dry and frigid, but all eyes will then begin to turn to our next significant winter event Friday into Saturday. The pressure gradient between high pressure across the Mississippi River Valley and the next approaching arctic front (and associated low pressure) will really being to kick up the wind across our region Friday. We’re afraid we deal with another round of severe blowing and drifting snow Friday, especially Friday afternoon and night. Areas most suspect to drifting and blowing snow will be central Indiana’s open country and may not be too different from the problems our region dealt with Sunday into Monday morning from blowing and drifting.
As we approach Friday night into Saturday, snow will overspread the region and will likely accumulate to the tune of a “few inches” during this time period. Strong winds will remain, shifting from the west to the northwest and eventually north. Open country will remain the prime place for continued severe blowing and drifting problems.
Just as soon as Saturday’s snow systems exits stage right, we turn our attention to potentially another significant snow maker for the second half of the weekend. Latest model data remains consistent on moving another potent clipper system into our region Sunday, including the GFS and Canadian forecast models. We still have time to fine tune the precise track of the storm, but just north of the low’s track an additional 3-5″ type snow is possible Sunday. Note the GFS and Euro in relative agreement on the track of the low, with the Canadian currently a touch further north. We’ll fine tune in the days ahead… Experience with similar patterns from the past suggests central Indiana should brace for more accumulating snow Sunday.
As for the brutal cold, we note multiple pushes of fresh arctic air behind each snow maker. We currently target Thursday morning, Friday morning, Tuesday morning, next Wednesday morning, and next Friday morning as having the most likely shot at dipping below zero. The “coldest of the cold” likely means Tuesday morning takes the crown, with lows potentially dipping into the double-digit below zero range for central Indiana. The European forecast model (below) even shows sub-zero temperatures making it as far south as the southern Appalachians.
As we look even longer term, there have been many questions centered on the potential of a big winter storm for early February. Before we go any further, we want to stress it’s far too early to make any claim of certainty to the above. That said, there are items we can pick up on to a least “raise an eyebrow” that something of significance may be brewing… Do we mean for anyone to take that verbatim and to the bank? Absolutely not.
The European Weeklies suggest we need to keep an eye on the first week of February. They show a potential phasing of the jet (where the northern and southern streams of the jet stream phase together- often times resulting in a big storm)… That said, we want to again stress this is far too early to be discussing with any sort of certainty. Heh, the next week will keep us busy enough!
Keep the shovel handy! Snow removal companies, thank you for your service and hard work…hopefully you have plenty of coffee on hand!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/21/historic-snow-season-keeps-rolling-along/