Nov 20
Updated 11.20.23 @ 5:30p
I. The weather pattern will turn progressively colder as we move through the Thanksgiving holiday. This isn’t anything earth-shattering by any stretch, but temperatures running 4° to 8° below normal is pretty stout. There’s also still the potential of an early season arctic “jab” prior to us getting out of the first 3-5 days of December, but that likely comes after this weekend- if at all.
As a whole, it’s a dry pattern that will accompany the chill, but we will want to continue keeping an eye on energy that will eject off the Rockies over the weekend. At times models can underplay these features only to have to correct stronger as we grow closer to the potential event. Will that be the case this time? Impossible to say from this distance- just something we’ll continue to monitor with such a busy travel period. As it is today, modeling wants to “string” the energy out which would essentially be a light or non-event.
II. While the pattern drivers all are aligned for a cold open (first few days) of December, there’s reason to believe a period of milder than normal air will take foot just after- say sometime between 12/5 and 12/8, or so. That said, we’re in a bit of a fork in the road so to speak.
The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is going to pop positive at least for a period of time prior to mid-December. This strongly argues for a relaxation of the cold regime that we’ll endure to open the month. Guidance differs on the handling of the MJO, however. Should the American guidance be correct in taking things into Phase 4, when combined with what we see transpiring with the EPO, then we’re off to the races for at least a 7-10 day period of much warmer than normal temperatures. That said, European guidance collapses the MJO into the “null” phase and even hints at things emerging again in the colder phases come mid December. While we still have time to sort through this “mess,” the idea here is that the cold open to the month will moderate to slightly to moderately above normal for a 7-10 day period leading us into mid-month. Thereafter, I’m becoming increasingly bullish for a renewed cold pattern developing towards the Christmas and New Years holidays…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/20/dinnertime-rambles-talking-thanksgiving-weekend-and-early-december/
Nov 20
Updated 11.20.23 @ 7:24a Showers this afternoon will give way to a steadier and heavier axis of rain overnight and into the predawn hours Tuesday. We continue to believe a…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/20/video-timing-out-weather-conditions-for-the-all-important-thanksgiving-week-cold-pattern-evolves/
Nov 19
Updated 11.19.23 @ 9:13a If you still need to put up those Christmas lights and other holiday decor, take our advice and use today to get that done. An area…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/19/video-getting-the-yuck-out-of-the-way-ahead-of-thanksgiving-cold-close-to-november-and-open-to-december/
Nov 18
Updated 11.18.23 @ 10:20a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/18/video-pre-thanksgiving-day-storm-and-a-cold-close-to-november/
Nov 17
Updated 11.17.23 @ 11a
The stars are all aligning to drive a significant shift in the overall regime towards one that should yield cooler (and, at times, colder) than normal temperatures as we navigate the back half of the month.
First, we have the MJO. Note how we’re set to slide into Phases 1 and 2 between now and end of the month.
These are progressively cold phases this time of year. Phase 1 has residual warmth across the Northeast (more seasonable here on the home front) before Phase 2 becomes overwhelmingly cold.
We then have the combo of the negative EPO and positive PNA. Both cold signals for our neck of the woods.
It’s no wonder model guidance is jumping on the persistent eastern trough to close out the month.
At some point in the 8-12 day period, I’d anticipate a true dislodge of true early season arctic air to get involved in the pattern. Think lows into the upper 10s, lower 20s and highs in the 30s. Still far too early to get specific with snow chances, but they will come before month’s end.
Stay tuned…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/17/more-on-the-cold-close-to-november/
Nov 17
Updated 11.17.23 @ 6:46a Happy Friday, friends! A cold front will come barreling through central Indiana around lunchtime and put an end to our unseasonably mild air, but also the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/17/video-much-colder-pattern-develops-to-close-november/
Nov 16
Updated 11.16.23 @ 7:20a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/16/video-thanksgiving-week-and-arctic-air-gets-back-involved-in-the-pattern/
Nov 15
Updated 11.15.23 @ 7:40a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/15/video-thanksgiving-forecast-and-a-little-wintry-mischief-to-close-november/
Nov 14
Updated 11.14.23 @ 6:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/14/video-colder-late-month-changes/
Nov 13
Updated 11.13.23 @ 1:50p
Good afternoon, Clients! As additional seasonal guidance updates, we wanted to take a moment to review the latest trends with you as that data becomes available. Today, the latest JMA monthly product updated and “doubles down” on the idea of an overall mild, but active December morphing into a colder, stormy eastern US regime come January and February. Overall, the model is very consistent from October’s update.
December
Highlights
I. A milder than normal open to meteorological winter, but quite an active pattern on a widespread level- centered Central and Southern tier.
II. Lets keep an eye on the potential of a colder pattern to evolve the last 10 days, or so, of December.
January
Highlights
I. Ridge pulls back into the “sweet spot” and subsequent trough develops across the East. (Would watch for potential of cold to grow more widespread in the next update should this 500mb be accurate, and we think it is).
II. Active Nino southern stream delivers a hectic and busy pattern across the southern tier and up the eastern seaboard. Ripe pattern for eastern winter storm threat(s).
February
Highlights
I. Persistent pattern from January. If anything, ‘mean’ trough/ ridge positions only become that much more prominent. Cold becomes more widespread across the East, compared to January. Again, should the upper air pattern be correct, I’d lean that the model will have to grow colder in time for this period.
II. Very stormy southern and eastern seaboard. Likely multiple attempts at wintry “fun and games,” including deep into the south with this pattern.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/13/doubling-down-on-the-winter-idea/