Feb 09
Updated 02.09.24 @ 5p
Scattered showers/ embedded thunder overnight, opportunity for slushy, light snow accumulation, and long range rumblings highlight this evening’s rambles…
I. A thin line of broken showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder will push southeast across central IN during the predawn hours Saturday. More widespread, concentrated rain and embedded thunder will work across the southern 1/3 of the state overnight and early Saturday morning. Across central IN, rainfall amounts of 0.10″ to 0.25″ will be possible with this activity with more widespread 0.25″ to 0.50″ totals across the southern portion of the state.
The front will pass southeast across the region predawn Saturday with a northwest wind shift taking place from northwest to southeast prior to sunrise Saturday. Cooler (not cold by February standards) air will flow into the region over the weekend.
II. The second piece of energy that will lead to a significant rain and associated severe weather episode across the South and a big ole snowstorm for our friends across the Northeast early next week, still appears to mostly bypass our immediate region. It’s possible southern portions of the state (mostly south of Indianapolis) could see a light, slushy snow accumulation, but I think even in these areas the 1″, via today’s EPS is too “generous.” The reason? Snowfall rates, marginal temperatures, and the unseasonably warm ground. Further east, this will be a much different animal with a notable snowstorm anticipated for the central Appalachians into southern New England. Regardless, at least locally, Monday evening into Monday night would be the period to watch for the potential of the slushy wet snow accumulation potential.
III. The upcoming week will undoubtedly be much cooler than what we’ve grown accustomed to from February ’24 so far, but nothing overly cold for this time of year by any stretch of the imagination. We’ll watch for the threat of a couple of clipper systems that could deliver mixed rain/ snow or light snow, but significant snow makers aren’t on the horizon in the week ahead as of this evening. We’ll continue to closely monitor.
The opportunity is present for a shot of colder air behind one of these clippers next weekend.
IV. The reason for “pause” this morning in the long standing idea here of a return to prolonged colder than normal weather into March came from a positive trend in the EPO and what at least appears (from this distance) any sort of MJO venture into Phase 8 will be very brief. If (still a bigger “if” than we prefer) we don’t keep that EPO negative and the MJO goes into the neutral phase, even a negative NAO won’t be able to impact the area with notable cold. Can the other players on the field at least keep the period closer to average or slightly cooler than normal? Yes, but any prolonged or significant cold would be highly unlikely if the EPO/ MJO combo doesn’t come to fruition. You better believe we’ll be watching trends carefully over the weekend into early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/09/friday-evening-rambles/
Feb 09
Updated 02.09.24 @ 7:14a With just enough sunshine we should easily set a new record in the city later this afternoon. Regardless, find a way to get outside and enjoy…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/09/video-going-for-a-new-record-high-this-afternoon-fly-in-the-ointment-late-month-into-early-march/
Feb 08
Updated 02.08.24 @ 6a A weak frontal boundary will limp into the state later this evening. Ahead of the front, anticipate unseasonably mild air and a gusty day. A few…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/08/video-windy-but-unseasonably-mild-colder-times-return-next-week/
Feb 07
Updated 02.07.24 @ 1:39p
Today’s midday computer guidance is trending more bullish for trailing energy to deliver heavier precipitation across central IN and the Ohio Valley. While there are many more questions than answers with respect to precipitation type, confidence is increasing significantly that a period of more significant precipitation will come at us in (2) waves this weekend into early next week: Saturday and again Monday.
Today’s ensemble guidance (12z total precipitation GEFS and EPS shown below) is showing a northward adjustment in more significant moisture into the Ohio Valley over the weekend into early next week.
We’ll continue to closely monitor the trends over the next couple of days but as of now, we feel confident enough to hit the prospects of rain harder Saturday (still nothing overly heavy but certainly more than guidance suggested over the past few days) and another period of widespread precipitation to open the new work week on Monday. As colder air works into the region over the weekend, this secondary wave of moisture may feature more in the way of wintry conditions across at least a portion of the area. Far too early for specifics beyond this overall idea for this time period, but should wet snow work into the picture for some, the recent warm ground and marginal temperatures would likely limit pavement impacts. As colder air becomes more significant and entrenched down the road, winter weather headlines will likely become more frequent late Feb into March…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/07/lunchtime-rambles-trends-for-the-weekend-and-early-next-week/
Feb 07
Updated 02.07.24 @ 7:21a A strong southerly flow will help pull up unseasonably mild air into the region as we close the work week. Highs will flirt with 60° Thursday…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/07/video-spring-fling-to-close-the-work-week-transition-to-colder-times/
Feb 06
Updated 02.06.24 @ 5:27a
We’re pushing 6 days now since our last measurable precipitation and that unusually calm, boring stretch of weather will continue for a couple more days. Despite some low clouds at times, expect our quiet and unseasonably mild weather pattern to continue. A late week frontal passage (FROPA) will pull a true taste of spring north into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes Thursday into Friday. We still don’t anticipate this being a significant precipitation maker for central Indiana.
A secondary (much stronger) low pressure system will ride along this pressing boundary and impact areas to our east (and south) with heavier precipitation over the weekend into early next week. The southern Appalachians once again may “cash in” on a hefty snow event.
This more active period comes as a wholesale pattern change gets underway with a significantly colder air mass aimed to overwhelm much of the Lower 48 as we push into next week.
We note longer range models showing cross polar flow setting up late February. To no surprise, the ante is upped for the threat of a period of significant cold prior to month’s end.
We’ll watch for the threat of new winter weather opportunities to emerge during this colder pattern down the road.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/06/tuesday-morning-rambles-opportunity-for-cross-polar-flow-late-month-and-looking-ahead-to-a-renewed-active-pattern/
Feb 05
Updated 02.05.24 @ 6p Potential is on the increase for a period of notable cold during late-February. We look into this along with the staying power, and early thoughts on…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/05/video-potential-of-significant-period-of-cold-plant24-pattern-thoughts/
Feb 05
Updated 02.05.24 @ 7:30a This week will be about as quiet and mild as it gets around these parts for early-February. Enjoy, friends. A weak frontal boundary will slip through…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/05/video-enjoy-a-quiet-and-mild-week-ahead-of-a-significant-pattern-change/
Feb 04
Updated 02.04.24 @ 11:11a
The coming pattern change back to cold has been long advertised and fits the overall theme of El Nino winters. The question now centers squarely on not “if” the cold is going to return, but just “how” cold will it get? Should we spend time in Phase 8 then the door opens for another opportunity to rival the magnitude of cold we saw in January. The strongly negative AO and NAO argues for pronounced high latitude blocking to develop yet again, and likely with more staying power than our January blocking episode.
But enough about the return of below normal temperatures. What is the longer range guidance suggesting as far as the overall precipitation pattern goes? During the pattern “transition state” (late week into Week 2), we favor a more active precipitation pattern as at least (2) more organized storm systems should roll through the Ohio Valley. Specifically, we’re targeting a system 2/8 into 2/9 followed by a more organized and heavier precipitation maker in the 2/11 -2/13 timeframe.
Beyond mid-month, the majority of extended, long range forecast models highlight a drier than normal pattern returning to the picture. This is forecast to continue into the 1st half of March. A more active (wet) pattern is forecast for the Southeast. Not shocking, especially given the anticipated colder than normal regime.
This doesn’t mean snowfall will run below average, but it’s also impossible to get specific with winter storm potential more than a week out. While we’ll keep an eye on next weekend, the threat of winter weather potential will increase through the 2nd half of the month and into the 1st half of March with the colder pattern returning. The latest ensemble guidance is bullish on a snow pattern emerging during that time period.
Perhaps we’re gearing up for a busy 2nd half of the season?
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/04/we-know-the-cold-is-set-to-return-but-what-about-the-precipitation-pattern-mid-feb-into-mid-march/
Feb 04
Updated 02.04.24 @ 8:55a
An unseasonably mild and quiet week is on tap. We aren’t forecasting rain to return into the picture until late week and the upcoming Super Bowl weekend. Highs will likely flirt with, if not exceed, the 60° mark Friday ahead of a frontal passage.
After Friday’s FROPA, we’ll watch the trailing, more significant piece of energy impact the Ohio Valley next weekend. Obviously, it’s far too early to determine if we’re talking about more rain and/ or snow, but the initial hunch here is that this should be primarily a liquid event, despite the snowy solution on the overnight European model. We’ll watch carefully in the coming days.
The more active pattern late week and over the weekend is a signal that the pattern is changing. Once again, we believe that we’re heading into more of a prolonged version of what we dealt with in January, thought the jury is still out on the extreme solutions on the table with respect to just how cold (should we get into Phase 8 of the MJO then look out). As it is, the teleconnection suite aligning in a manner that they are is reason enough to be fired up on an all-out return of winter for mid-February. The forecasted strongly negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) provides us with a greater than normal confidence level that this cold pattern will have staying power not only through the remainder of the month, but into the 1st half of March (at least).
Latest long range modeling highlights the prolonged nature of the cold pattern:
Temperature anomalies Feb. 17 – Mar. 20
Make it a great Sunday, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/04/mild-week-ahead-more-prolonged-cold-pattern-on-the-table/