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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/09/06/video-significantly-warmer-times-on-deck-by-mid-month/

Sep 05

Weekly #AGwx And #Harvest21 Outlook…

• Filed under 7-Day Outlook, AG Report, Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest21, Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weekly Outlook

• September 5, 2021

Updated 09.05.21 @ 8a

Forecast Period: 09.05.21 through 09.12.21

A very quiet weather pattern will settle into the region as we go through the upcoming week. The one exception to that is Tuesday night as a cold front quickly passes through the area. Moisture levels will return ever so slightly ahead of the boundary and may be enough to produce a couple of storms Tuesday evening (widely scattered coverage). The front will help to reinforce the dry airmass in place, along with provide cooler temperatures for mid and late week. As we look ahead beyond this week, indications are that things will moderate and turn a bit more active (though that’s admittedly not saying much, considering just how quiet things will be this week).

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/09/02/video-tracking-a-couple-of-cold-fronts-saturday-morning-and-next-tuesday/

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/09/01/video-extended-stretch-of-early-fall-like-weather-as-we-welcome-in-meteorological-autumn/

Sep 01

September 2021 Outlook: Welcome to Meteorological Fall…

• Filed under Autumn, Client, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest21, Long Range Discussion, MJO, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

• September 1, 2021

Updated 09.01.21 @ 7:30a

Welcome to fall- at least from a meteorological perspective! Averages in Indianapolis for the month of September include highs that fall from 82.6° on the 1st to 72.7° at month’s end. Lows drop from the lower 60s (62.5°) to the low 50s (51.6°). We average 3.2″ of rainfall during the month.

As we look at September 2021, the month will get off to a cooler than normal start, but we don’t think we’re quite done with the warmer temperatures. The MJO is forecast to rumble into the notorious warm phases for September and the EPO is showing signs of wanting to spend most of the time in a positive manner.

We’ll take this into account, along with factoring in the trends from the latest longer range computer models (European Weeklies, CFSv2, and JMA) to build our September forecast:

Summed up, we’re talking about a month that is very near seasonal norms from a temperature perspective (once all is said and done) and slightly wetter than average.

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Aug 31

Winds Of Change On The Doorstep…

• Filed under Autumn, Client, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest21, Rain, Summer, Weather Rambles

• August 31, 2021

Updated 08.31.21 @ 8:11a

We have one more day of humid conditions, but a wholesale pattern change will have things feeling much different around these parts beginning tomorrow, and continuing for the foreseeable future.

Note the drier air beginning to invade northern portions of IL, IN, and OH this morning. While dew points are still stuck in the mid-upper 60s, locally, that less humid air is heading south.

Note how the trough really amplifies next week across the eastern portion of the country. This will pull down an extended stretch of cooler, less humid air as we move through the better part of the first half of September.

A reinforcing cold front will sweep through here Saturday (yes, we’re giving in to building rain and storm chances into our Saturday forecast) with unsettled conditions.

This is likely going to set the stage for an overall wetter, cooler stretch of weather next week. Additional rain chances will arrive Tuesday and Thursday of next week.

8 of the past 10 days featured highs at or above the 90° mark, and was easily the hottest stretch of the summer. Looking ahead, a “hint” of fall shows up on the medium range charts just in time for us to kick off meteorological fall (officially, tomorrow).

Much more later, including our September Outlook…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/08/30/video-tracking-heavy-storms-over-the-next-24-36-hours-before-much-drier-cooler-air-invades-to-close-out-the-week/