Dec 03
Updated 12.03.21 @ 7:20a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/03/video-topsy-turvy-regime-over-the-upcoming-10-days/
Dec 02
Updated 12.02.21 @ 6:40p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/02/video-unseasonably-mild-and-quiet-for-now-but-are-changes-lurking/
Dec 01
Updated 12.02.21 @ 6:45a Just a quick note this morning to let you know I don’t have any changes to the ideas presented here last night. We’ll review the latest…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/01/video-wintry-mischief-next-week/
Dec 01
Updated 12.01.21 @ 7:40a
In the short-term, we have to deal with a fast moving system that will deliver rain to central parts of the state through the 1st half of the day. Most of the measurable rain will be off to our southeast after lunchtime.
A breezy warm-up will take place Thursday, helping boost temperature all the way into the lower 60s for several central Indiana neighborhoods- not bad at all for December 2nd, huh?!
Mostly dry weather will prevail across immediate central Indiana into the 1st half of the weekend. Similar to last week, we’ll note systems flying by to our north, but most, if not all, of these features will remain just to our north.
Moisture will return by Sunday as a rather widespread rain builds into the state ahead of a cold front. Behind the front, a punch of colder air will flow into the Ohio Valley as we open the work week.
That will then potentially set us up for more interesting times from a wintry perspective for the next system (targeting next Tuesday). We note, to no surprise, 6 days out, differences with the model guidance. Things range from a healthy winter storm (GFS solution) to an all rain event (European solution). We will keep close eyes. Timing will have to be perfect for the system to take advantage of the colder airmass flowing into the region early next week behind the front, especially without a favorable position from the high to our north (that would be able to continue funneling in colder air as the low pressure system moves through the region). Stay tuned.
If that wasn’t enough to keep us busy over the coming several days, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is once again trying to show some life. Note how the amplitude carries things into Phase 6 and 7 towards mid-month. While Phase 6 is a very warm phase (compared to normal), major changes take place with Phase 7 as more widespread and meaningful cold air takes hold.
There’s no denying the warmth associated with Phase 6 and unfavorable teleconnections in the short-term (shown below), but it’ll be mighty interesting to see if data starts trending colder towards mid-month if we can get things into Phase 7.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/01/welcome-to-december-things-begin-to-grow-more-interesting-with-each-passing-day/
Nov 30
Updated 11.30.21 @ 6:20a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/11/30/video-tracking-2-systems-to-close-out-the-week/
Nov 29
Updated 11.29.21 @ 7:30a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/11/29/video-december-set-to-open-on-a-quiet-warmer-than-normal-note/
Nov 27
Updated 11.27.21 @ 5:56a
The theme of the better part of the autumn season has been a story of contradicting signals- teleconnections and MJO alike. When we look ahead to the beginning of meteorological winter (Dec. 1st), it sure appears that will continue to be the story. For a brief moment the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) tries to go negative. This is interesting in and of itself as only a couple days ago the EPO was forecast positive during this period.
Meanwhile, the PNA is forecast negative to open the month.
The “wildcard” in this entire December outcome has to do with the MJO. If (still a big if) we can get things to amplify, then a whip around the historically December cold phases (7, 8, and 1) appear in order.
If the MJO doesn’t get in the game, the pattern, at best, will be one of continued transition (colder and warmer than normal periods) and that’s what the majority of ensemble guidance currently shows. Without a favorable MJO, it’s tough to see how meaningful, more sustained arctic air can get into the mix, locally.
As far as storm systems of note, we’re in an incredibly quiet period and that looks to continue through the upcoming 5-6 days. We’ll keep eyes to our north where weak systems will zip by in the fast flow aloft, but most, if not all, of these should remain to our north and east. It’s not until early next weekend (looks like Friday or early Saturday as of now) when our next system of more significance is slated to impact the area.
War Eagle and happy Iron Bowl Saturday! 😀
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/11/27/long-range-rambles-on-iron-bowl-saturday/
Nov 25
Updated 11.25.21 @ 6:53a
Our Thanksgiving morning is off to a wet start but the rain won’t last all day. A cold front will push across the state this afternoon (arriving into Indianapolis around noon) putting an end to the rain and allowing much colder air to blow in. Before that takes place, anywhere from 0.25” – 0.50” of rain is expected through the morning hours.
The airmass will grow cold enough by evening to allow snow showers and squalls to fire up off Lake Michigan and track into north and east central parts of the state (not expecting any significant accumulation).
Black Friday will feature a return of dry and sunny conditions but it’ll be cold. A gusty northwest wind will mean you’ll want to grab the heavier coat out the door as temperatures that start out in the lower 20s won’t rise out of the 30s Friday afternoon.
The upcoming week will showcase a series of storm systems zipping by across the northern tier but most, if not all, of those systems will remain north of our immediate area. A generally quiet week of weather is forecast for now, once we get the upcoming 12-24 hours behind us.
From our family to yours, have a safe, happy, and blessed Thanksgiving.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/11/25/rain-moves-out-much-colder-air-arrives/
Nov 24
Updated 11.24.21 @ 5:52p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/11/24/long-range-update-looking-at-the-1st-half-of-december/
Nov 24
Updated 11.24.21 @ 7:21a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/11/24/video-thanksgiving-cold-front-and-a-look-at-the-long-holiday-weekend/