Jan 16
Updated 01.16.22 @ 6:15a
The week ahead will feature a couple of reinforcing shots of arctic air. The first of these arrives Monday morning and will be coupled with light snow. After a dry close to the weekend, Martin Luther King Jr day will feature light snow expanding in coverage prior to sunrise. Light snow will continue across central Indiana into mid to late morning before shutting off. Further northeast, some light accumulation is possible with lake enhancement (around 1” of snow across the northeast Indiana snow belt, otherwise it’s nothing more than a coating for most throughout central Indiana).
While Indianapolis may sneak back to 30° Monday afternoon, most of the day will be stuck in the 20s.
Weak high pressure will then control our weather Tuesday and Wednesday. As a southwesterly air flow gets briefly back involved, temperatures will moderate back into the upper 30s to lower 40s with dry conditions.
The next push of arctic air will blow into town Thursday. As of now this appears to be a dry frontal passage but we will monitor (occasionally these reinforcing cold fronts can feature an arctic wave with a brief opportunity for snow). Cold will be a big deal to close the week- Thursday, Friday, and Saturday should feature highs in the low-mid 20s and lows in the single digits to lower 10s. Wind chill values will dip below zero at times. Lake effect will get going during this time frame across the traditional snow belt.
Longer term, the pattern still looks to support a colder than average regime to wrap up January.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/16/cold-air-reinforcements/
Jan 14
Updated 01.14.22 @ 6:05p With each passing the day, the desperation from central Indiana snow lovers is being felt more and more. 😉 This weekend’s significant (memorable in many instances)…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/14/about-those-opportunities-for-snow/
Jan 14
Updated 01.14.22 @ 7a
The primary driver (the Madden Julian Oscillation, or MJO) will be in a favorable phase to allow colder than average temperatures to take up residence across the eastern part of the country as we close out January. To no surprise, these particular phases favor positive heights over the high latitudes (blocking) which helps drive more of a persistent colder than normal pattern.
We’ll keep an eye if the MJO gets stuck in the neutral phase, but the “loop” around into Phase 6 this time of year would continue to favor cooler (to colder) than normal conditions across our portion of the country.
That brings us to our teleconnections. The “big 3” (this time of year include the AO, EPO, and PNA) are also all in favorable position to deliver a colder than normal pattern to close January.
One could also build a case that February would at least open colder than normal based off a combo of the above (MJO and teleconnections) and we agree with that idea, but do believe a “flip” in the regime is ahead after the first week, or so, of the month to milder times.
To no surprise, modeling is showing this cold close to the month.
The opportunity is present for Week 2 to be bitterly cold, as the European is hinting above. Sub-zero temperatures are on the table, especially if we can get some snow down.
Speaking of snow, this pattern should produce a couple opportunities for central Indiana to get in on the act before the end of the month, or beginning of February. Despite the incredibly slow start to the season, take any one particular solution with a grain of salt when looking at operational guidance 2 weeks out.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/14/long-range-update-colder-than-average-close-to-january-looking-ahead-to-early-february/
Jan 13
Updated 01.13.22 @ 6:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/13/video-potential-of-accumulating-for-snow-for-a-portion-of-the-state-this-weekend/
Jan 12
Updated 01.12.22 @ 7:23a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/12/video-significant-weekend-questions-bullish-on-a-very-cold-close-to-january/
Jan 11
Updated 01.11.22 @ 7:30a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/11/video-cold-open-to-january-tracking-a-couple-of-moisture-starved-systems-locally/
Jan 10
Updated 01.10.22 @ 7:20a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/10/video-cold-open-to-the-work-week-wintry-pattern-evolution-into-the-2nd-half-of-january/
Jan 09
Updated 01.09.22 @ 8:30a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/09/video-sunshine-returns-to-open-the-work-week-but-so-do-bitterly-cold-conditions/
Jan 08
Updated 01.08.22 @ 4:35p
While we’re dealing with our own wintry precipitation this afternoon, snow lovers continue to wait for the first big event of the season. Watching 2 snow storms blow by to our south over the past week was an added sting.
Patience may very well be rewarded as we navigate the second half of the month as a classic wintry pattern carves itself out over the eastern portion of the country.
The GFS was first to key in on this pattern evolution, and now, today, the European is finally seeing the light (shown below). What makes this pattern different is the likelihood of high latitude blocking (courtesy of a negative arctic oscillation) which will help the regime sustain itself. On that note, it’s been my experience that the GFS does better handling AO transitions from positive to negative and was the primary reason we leaned on the GEFS earlier this week. Run to run consistency was also another player.
November and December failed to produce teleconnections that were aligned for cold, but that should change as we push towards mid month. This is ultimately a byproduct of the primary driver- the MJO rumbling into Phase 8 (finally). As the AO goes negative, the EPO should follow suit. Unlike in December, the PNA should also be in a much more favorable state for persistent eastern cold.
The idea here is that the majority (if not all) of the second half of January will feature below to well below average temperatures and multiple opportunities for “more meaningful” snow- whether it be from a series of Clippers, a more classic panhandle cross-country winter storm (example pictured below), or a combination of both.
At the very least, it’s certainly not a boring pattern, and for the first time this season, it appears as if we’ll be able to lock this cold in.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/08/cold-wintry-pattern-settling-in-for-the-2nd-half-of-january/
Jan 08
Updated 01.08.22 @ 9:55a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/08/video-freezing-rain-arrives-this-afternoon/