Feb 09
Updated 02.09.22 @ 7:36a
With only a few weeks left in meteorological winter, our thoughts are beginning to shift to spring. A weak La Niña is expected to persist through spring 2022.
See the cooler than normal central and eastern PAC sea surface temperatures below, courtesy of NOAA’s Physical Science Laboratory.
The IRI/ CPC plume shows the idea of a weak Nina continuing March, April, and May (meteorological spring season).
We also like to pay close attention to the SST configuration in the Gulf of Mexico. As the mean trough position pulls into the west, an active storm track is likely to emerge across the Mid West. With warmer than normal SSTs in the Gulf, these storms will be able to tap into the Gulf moisture and this could help spawn bigger rain/ severe weather episodes from the mid-south into the Ohio Valley as the season matures (don’t worry snow lovers, we aren’t finished with the white stuff just yet).
The idea here is for an active spring- complete with a busy storm track through our neck of the woods, slightly above normal temperatures, and a fast start to the severe weather season (especially given those Gulf SSTs). We don’t have any reason to disagree with the overall idea that both the American climate model and European seasonal products are displaying.
Of course the MJO and NAO will play a factor in the shorter term period as spring gets underway. We’ll most certainly monitor closely.
Much more as we get closer!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/02/09/initial-thoughts-on-spring-2022/
Feb 08
Updated 02.08.22 @ 7:09a
After an unseasonably mild December the pattern flipped in January. Indianapolis finished the first month of 2022 down 3° from normal. Add in a hefty winter storm last week and the narrative this winter has changed significantly from how things opened up.
The coming couple of weeks will feature some ups and downs but will balance out colder than normal.
Where we go thereafter is an interesting question. Teleconnections shout it’s time to think spring. However, the MJO says we may want to “tap the brakes” on the spring chatter- at least until the last week of February.
After heading into the chilly Phase 3, we’ll round the turn into a milder Phase 4 late month.
The call here remains unchanged: cold dominates through the medium range (from an overall standpoint, thanks to the MJO) before a flip in the regime and a milder than average pattern to close out the month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/02/08/where-do-we-go-from-here/
Feb 07
Updated 02.07.22 @ 7:27a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/02/07/video-moisture-starved-clippers/
Feb 06
Updated 02.06.22 @ 9:37a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/02/06/video-chilly-pattern-persists-with-fast-moving-clipper-systems-in-the-days-ahead/
Feb 05
Updated 02.05.22 @ 8a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/02/05/video-short-term-update-and-long-range-pattern-discussion-to-close-out-february/
Feb 04
Updated 02.04.22 @ 7:30a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/02/04/video-the-snowy-beat-goes-on-tracking-clipper-systems-in-an-almost-every-other-day-fashion/
Feb 03
Updated 02.03.22 @ 7:05a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/02/03/video-let-it-snow-let-it-snow-let-it-snow/
Feb 02
Updated 02.02.22 @ 8:47p
After reviewing the latest data, we have no reason to adjust our ongoing ideas from our latest Client Brief or this morning’s video discussion. Thursday will feature a prolonged period of heavy snow into the evening hours, along with an increasingly stiff NNE wind that will lead to significant blowing and drifting issues- especially during the afternoon and evening. Much more in the AM, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/02/02/video-its-show-time/
Feb 01
Updated 02.01.22 @ 7p
Type: Severe Winter Weather
What: Heavy mixed precipitation, heavy snow, & strong winds
When: Wednesday afternoon through predawn Friday
Temperatures: Mid 30s, falling into the upper 10s Thursday night
Wind: NNE 15 – 25 MPH (gusts up to 30 MPH Thursday)
Blowing/ Drifting: Significant to severe (especially on east-west roadways)
Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required
Summary: While we don’t have any significant changes to this morning’s video update, we continue to draw that much closer to “show time” with this winter storm. Conditions will deteriorate from northwest to southeast as we progress through the day tomorrow, but the “main show” for immediate central IN will come late tomorrow night and through the day Thursday. It’s during this time where snowfall rates will exceed 1″/ hour for a widespread portion of the region. Simply put, if you don’t have to travel, please don’t. The added concern also remains present of blowing and drifting issues that will likely develop during the day Thursday. This will be from a byproduct of an increasingly fluffy snow (anything that falls tomorrow will be of the wet, slushy nature), thanks to higher ratios, as the arctic air pours into the region. Add in a stiff north, northeast wind of 15-25 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH and you can easily see where the problems are likely to ensue. In particular, east-west roadways in the open country are likely to drift shut by late morning or afternoon Thursday. Snowfall coverage and intensity will finally begin to diminish from northwest to southeast Thursday night. By that point, it’ll be time to bring the heavy equipment out to engage in removal of the “BIG SNOW.” We still anticipate bitterly cold (5° to 15° below zero) temperatures to take up shop Saturday morning across the region.
Confidence: High
Next Update: 7a Wednesday
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/02/01/client-brief-all-systems-go-for-highly-impactful-winter-storm/
Feb 01
Updated 02.01.22 @ 7:14a
Here’s our snowfall forecast. Most of what accumulates through the heart of the 8″ to 12″ zone and points south will fall with “round 2” Wednesday night and Thursday. This morning’s video update has the details!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/02/01/video-conditions-deteriorate-wednesday-mixed-precipitation-gives-way-to-heavy-snow-wednesday-night-across-central-in/