Mar 04
Updated 03.04.22 @ 7:38a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/04/video-heading-for-the-70s-saturday-unsettled-conditions-return-early-next-week-and-eyeing-a-big-blast-of-unseasonably-cold-air-late-next-week/
Mar 03
Updated 03.03.22 @ 6a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/03/video-warm-weekend-ahead-significant-pattern-change-looms-next-week/
Mar 02
Updated 03.02.22 @ 7:56p
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is back in the null, or neutral, phase.
That means it’s time to start leaning heavier on the teleconnection blend. This time of the year, that encompasses all, including the NAO.
As we look over the course of the upcoming 10-14 days, we note rather strong alignment between the teleconnections favoring a return of a cold pattern. That is, of course, after the taste of spring that will continue into the day Sunday (aside from one “speed bump” tomorrow).
We note the EPO, or East Pacific Oscillation, is forecast negative until around the 12th and then back towards neutral. This is a cold signal for the east, relative to average.
The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is forecast neutral through the bulk of the upcoming couple weeks. – Likely won’t have a significant impact on the overall pattern.
The PNA (Pacific North American pattern) is forecast negative through the 13th before trending neutral. This should allow a southeastern ridge to remain in play to at least some degree which suggests a very active storm track into the Ohio Valley. As the colder air pushes east and runs up against the resistance from the southeastern ridge, late season wintry threats loom towards mid month.
Finally, the WPO (West Pacific Oscillation) is forecast strongly negative which also implies cold should try and fight east.
With all of that said above, we note the ensemble guidance (both the EPS and GEFS) brings the trough back into the central and eastern portion of the country as we move out of the Day 1-6 period and suggests it’s far too early to think about putting away those winter clothes, or even the snow removal equipment just yet…
Note the colder than normal temperatures spilling back into the region next week and the week beyond.
We’re likely far from finished with snow or wintry precipitation either…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/02/winter-isnt-done-yet/
Mar 02
Updated 03.02.22 @ 6:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/02/video-gorgeous-day-dialed-up-unsettled-and-colder-next-week/
Mar 01
Updated 03.01.22
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/01/video-quiet-open-to-march-before-we-turn-active-next-week/
Feb 28
Updated 02.28.22 @ 8:30a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/02/28/video-calm-quiet-work-week-begins-to-turn-much-more-active-down-the-road/
Feb 27
Updated 02.27.22 @ 7:17a
A fast moving northwesterly flow aloft will zip weak and moisture starved systems through the Great Lakes and into the northeast through the upcoming work week. We’ll remain just south of the path of these features, resulting in an extended period of quiet and milder conditions. We should remain precipitation-free at least until Saturday.
We’ll want to be sure to take advantage of this prolonged period of calmer conditions as things will become much more active by next weekend. By all indications, the regime looks to continue being quite busy into mid-March. In fact, the longer range charts suggest we have to deal with (4) separate storm systems between the 5th and 15th.
While the short-term will be milder, I don’t think we’ve seen the last of the wintry weather for the year either…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/02/27/enjoy-the-quiet-times-while-we-have-them/
Feb 25
Updated 02.25.22 @ 5a
As another wintry event comes to an end, most Hoosiers are ready for spring. As we look ahead at the upcoming couple of weeks, there are signs that at least a “taste” of spring awaits. But, as is typically the case, there are contradicting signals.
The consensus from our big player teleconnections would suggest a warm-up (compared to normal) in the 5-10 day period, but note that the trends are favorable for cooler than normal temperatures thereafter.
Ensemble guidance shows the transition over the upcoming couple weeks.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) argues that eastern warmth should come back with a vengeance towards mid-March after the potential of a brief cooler setback. We note guidance is in better alignment taking things into Phase 5 and that should result in an expanding eastern ridge between the 10th and 15th.
The JMA Week 2 500mb pattern looks pretty good to me based on the MJO activity. Meanwhile, unseasonably cold air is likely to dump into the West and we’ll have ti monitor thing the pattern drivers closely once passed mid-month for the possibility of colder air to ooze east.
The transitional theme to the overall pattern should promote wetter than normal conditions over the upcoming 14-16 days as a whole.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/02/25/long-range-update-spring-is-that-you/
Feb 24
Updated 02.24.22 @ 7:40a
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/02/24/video-wintry-precipitation-overspreads-the-area-yet-again-this-afternoon-into-the-evening/
Feb 23
Updated 02.23.22 @ 5:15p
Type: Impactful wintry weather
What: Impactful wintry weather
When: Tonight and Thursday morning and Thursday afternoon through predawn Friday
Temperatures: Middle 20s to lower 30s
Wind: East Northeast 10-20 MPH, shifting to the north late Thursday
Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal across n-central Indiana
Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required across n-central Indiana and points north. Salting required across southern and central Indiana.
Summary: (2) waves of moisture will stream over central Indiana between this evening and predawn Friday. The initial, lead wave of precipitation will feature a mixture of light snow, light sleet, and light freezing rain. “Light” is the key word, but area roadways will likely become slick through the evening and into tonight- including in and around Indianapolis-proper. In and around the I-70 corridor and points north, this precipitation is expected to primarily fall in the form of snow. Further south, a mixture of sleet and freezing rain is anticipated. While this will be light in nature, precipitation should be rather persistent, lasting up until, or just after, sunrise. By sunrise, areas in and around Indy and points north can expect between 0.50″ and 1.50″ of snow (should sleet mix in, amounts will be closer to the lighter end of the spectrum vs. if we stay mostly snow, amounts closer to 1.5″ can be expected). Further south, a light glaze (up to 0.1″) and light sleet is expected to be the predominant precipitation type with this initial wave of moisture.
We’ll then undergo a “lull” in the action mid morning into the early afternoon hours, but low pressure will be organizing off to our southwest and have eyes set on a northeast trek into the southern portion of the state Thursday evening. This will be when we anticipate the heavier precipitation to move across the region. Across southern IN, this should primarily fall in the form of a cold rain, but further north the same can’t be said: a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain is expected to redevelop Thursday afternoon and continue into the night before ending as light snow. Across n-central IN and points to the MI/ IL state line, all snow is anticipated.
Precipitation will diminish from southwest to northeast predawn Friday with high pressure regaining control of our weather to close out the work week (just a few light lingering snow showers are expected Friday). Please see our updated snow and ice forecast below that includes total amounts for both parts of this event.
Confidence: High
Next Update: 7:30a Thursday
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/02/23/client-brief-2-waves-of-wintry-precipitation-set-to-impact-area/