A major battle is taking shape between two of the more respected mid range forecast models for the late week period, including Super Bowl weekend. The differences range from yet another wintry weekend, with a couple shots of accumulating snow to one that’s much milder and includes some rain. Operational guidance today has remained consistent with what each particular model has been saying for the past 24-48 hours, adding further complexity to the upcoming late week period. Usually we’d give a slight nudge towards the European output (warmer solution), but here in a bit we’ll tell you why we’re really not ready to hedge more towards one particular model over the other at this time frame. Instead, we want to give it a couple more days and see which model “gives in” to the other.
Let’s dive into the European output first.
We note both models in relative good agreement on Thursday night into Friday as light snow overspreads the region (not a huge deal, but potentially enough to make for a slippery Friday morning commute).
As we move into Saturday the European tracks a developing surface low much further north than the GFS, resulting in a milder solution across central Indiana and a forecast that would produce a rain to snow solution Saturday as cold air quickly pours back into our region, with enough snow, perhaps, to produce a light accumulation Saturday night. However, it’s important to note, most European ensemble members are colder than the operational run and this is something we’ll need to continue to monitor.
As we head into early early next week, the European forecast model remains bullish on a potential major winter storm, with a favorable storm track for heavy amounts of wintry precipitation across central Indiana. The time we’re eyeing for this next storm falls in the Monday night-Tuesday time period so we have plenty of time to monitor things and iron out the details…
Now, as we look at the GFS forecast model, we note a colder solution from start to finish. We have to raise an eye brow here as the track record of the GFS in the mid range is one that has been known to be biased too “flat” and too cold in handling similar patterns. Is that saying the GFS is wrong here? Absolutely not…nobody knows that at this juncture. It is saying we have to rely on experience and remember similar patterns of the past, including the way the model “corrected” itself with time as we drew closer to the particular event in most cases…
Nonetheless, similar to the European, the GFS delivers a round of accumulating snow Friday morning, but is flatter (colder) with the initial wave and also leads to quite the overrunning event through the Ohio Valley. As a matter of fact, we deal with two rounds of accumulating snow…Friday morning into the early afternoon and again Saturday morning, associated with yet another wave of low pressure.
Of interest, the GFS also sees the potential strong winter storm that could impact our neck of the woods early next week. Needless to say, the surface map next Tuesday morning would have snow lovers smiling in a big way should this come to fruition…
While we have many details to iron out late week and on into early next week, the overall weather pattern is one that we remain confident on and the results are cold and stormy (i.e. snowy) over the upcoming 10-14 day period. As a matter of fact, long range teleconnections suggest we remain colder than normal and stormy through the majority of February. In short, there’s really no let up in sight from the overall cold and wintry time of things Hoosiers have grown oh so accustomed to this winter…