There’s been a tremendous amount of buzz concerning the late week winter storm, and for good reason. This will be a doozie for some (perhaps many) folks. While most data keeps this storm too far south and east for a big snow for Hoosiers, it’s wise not to write this storm off at this juncture.
A latest scan of the GFS ensembles show 9 of 21 members suggest snow impacts central IN Thursday night.
Source: Weatherbell.com
While we can’t show them here (due to licensing issues), we note 19 of 51 European ensemble members also agree on snow prospects for southern/ central IN.
Experience here (and during my time in the mountains of east TN) suggest time and time again that when surface lows track through the TN Valley, you’ll see a reflection of that low track west of the spine of the Appalachians before the new primary low forms east of the mountains. This takes place due to the natural impact of downsloping off the Appalachians. (We’ll bore you with the fascinating impacts of upsloping and downsloping at another time). 🙂 Is that far enough west to provide the “snowy goods” to central IN? Sometimes yes, and sometimes no. We’ll continue to keep a very close eye on things as we rumble closer towards late week and we suggest you do as well.
In the near term, challenges also abound. We still favor a swath of 2-3″ snows through the I-70 corridor tomorrow night-Wednesday morning. Upper level energy and the higher ratio snow should fluff those amounts up, despite current data tracking amounts south. We’ll keep a close eye on 00z data.
Much more later! Have a great evening!