Highlights:
- Nighttime storms
- Prolonged wind event
- Eyeing our next storm
The morning has dawned with mid and high level clouds painting the back drop as the sun rises. We’ve shared several photos on our Twitter page (@IndyWx) of the beautiful sun rise. Thank you and keep ’em coming!
Low pressure is moving off the Rockies this morning (where another hefty snow dump took place overnight) and into the Plains. The low will then track into the Great Lakes Thursday. As the low moves northeast, it’ll swing a cold front through our neck of the woods Thursday morning. We still bracket tonight into the wee morning hours Thursday for thunderstorm potential. See the simulated radar valid at 10p this evening, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is lacking with this storm and moisture return isn’t impressive. This is good news as it will reduce the amount of severe weather we’ll see. However, it should be noted that it won’t take much to bring down a severe wind report or two and that is our primary concern tonight with any storm.
CAPE- courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Surface Dew Points- courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Precipitable Water- courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Because of the lack of moisture return and the overall speed of the system, rainfall tonight won’t be impressive for most (0.25″-0.50″ on average) with the exception of localized stronger storms.
What will be impressive is the wind, even without storms. A Wind Advisory has been issued for late tonight and Thursday, via the National Weather Service out of Indianapolis, and rightfully so. We wouldn’t be surprised if a portion of this is upgraded to a High Wind Warning later today or tonight as gusts of 50 MPH+ will be a concern through the day Thursday as our low occludes over the Lakes.
A period of drier air will return to wrap up the week and head into early next week, but we eye another big storm system for the middle of next week. Forecast models differ on precise details, as you’d expect at this juncture.
The GFS (above) isn’t shying away from another significant impact event. The European isn’t as bullish early on. All mid range models do produce moderate to heavy rains over the region. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor.