Updated 10.03.22 @ 5:32p
The NEW European Weeklies are in and continue to paint an intriguing picture as we look ahead to November. Remember, we’re of the belief that the pattern may, indeed, get off to a fast start to the winter season (for a change) this year.
At any rate, note the evolution at 500mb continues to up the ante that this idea may be right as we rumble into mid-November.
However, at the surface, the European doesn’t display the type of cooling one would imagine given the upper air pattern look.
My hunch is that we’ll see the trough “tuck in” further west to include a good portion of the central and east as we move forward and zone in on that mid-November time frame. That will likely force the surface temperature anomalies above to cool (significantly so if this idea is correct) for that time period.
It’ll be interesting to see what the update European seasonal product says in a couple of days. We’ll include that in Thursday’s long range update.