Updated 01.20.22 @ 10:18p
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to remain in the neutral, or “null, phase into early February. Phase 8 did the “dirty work” on helping drive a more persistent cold pattern into the eastern United States prior to moving into the null phase.
You know the drill, that means we will lean on the teleconnection blend to formulate the baseline of the upcoming 2-4 weeks. During the middle of winter, we lean heaviest on the AO, PNA, and EPO. (The NAO will be more strongly factored into the equation during the late winter and into spring).
2 out of 3 of the big teleconnection drivers favor cold to wrap up the month and open February. The one fly in the ointment? The strongly negative PNA. With that said, if we can, indeed, get the EPO and AO to come to fruition, it’s a stormy, cold signal as compared to what we saw back in December.
Thinking here is that headlines during the Weeks 1-2 period will continue to be dominated by cold before some moderation of the cold allows an increasingly stormy signal to grab the attention in the Weeks 3-4 period. Far too early for specifics, but more in the way of moisture-laden systems should emerge beyond next week.
While we still are in the cold camp to open February, pressure will be put on the pattern that should drive more eastern ridging once out of the 1st week. Accordingly, the pattern should flip towards more of a persistent above normal regime roughly between Feb. 7th and 14th. Above normal precipitation would also be favored into the 1st half of February.
