Updated 03.23.21 @ 7:10p
After a couple predawn showers Wednesday, the remainder of the day should be quiet and free of any significant rain. However, by this time, eyes will be focused on the possibility of a more significant event on Thursday.
Model guidance is beginning to suggest this will come at the state in (2) waves. The first rain/ storm cluster will likely arrive mid to late Thursday morning and may feature some embedded strong/ severe cells across downstate Indiana. Given the ingredients in play, hail would be the greatest threat from these morning storms across southern Indiana. Further north, across immediate central Indiana, severe weather isn’t expected, but general rain and storms will be a good bet, including locally heavy rain.
We will then likely see a lull in the activity into the early to mid afternoon hours before a second round of storms blows through during the evening. This 2nd wave of storms may feature more of a damaging wind threat from places in and around Bloomington and points south. From this distance, it appears as if the time period between 5p-8p is the one to watch.
While it continues to look like the more substantial severe threat will be south of the region, that isn’t to say the southern portions of the state won’t see a warning or two Thursday and we’ll continue to keep a close eye out as time draws closer.