Though few and far between this winter, every attempt from the EPO to go negative has been met with wintry challenges. That’s likely going to be the case yet again next week.
Note the negative dip in the EPO next week. This is what initially grabbed our attention last week (when at that time, looking out 2+ weeks away). Modeling has produced a variety of solutions for the middle of next week for quite some time now (the consistency has been impressive), but the details will vary, and continue to do so for the next several days.
The latest GFS is bullish on the wintry threat (especially for the northern Ohio Valley), but as mentioned above, don’t get wrapped up in the details pertaining to the specifics just yet…
It should be noted, there’s ensemble support as well for the threat of a late season winter event for at least portions of the northern Ohio Valley into the Northeast.
Longer range, it’ll be interesting to see if the NAO and EPO begin to trend negative. Even if the MJO doesn’t want to “play,” those 2 ingredients in tandem can create late season headaches. We note some of our long range, sub-seasonal data is trending towards a look for a colder April.
Interesting times ahead- as always.