February 11, 2024 archive

Feb 11

Pre Super Bowl Rambles: Cooler Week Ahead, But Milder Late Month Trends…

Updated 02.11.24 @ 3:31p

I hope this finds you enjoying a relaxing and fun Super Bowl Sunday afternoon! Before we talk longer range, trends this afternoon have been to shove the heavier snow banding potential further south tomorrow night. We’ll keep an eye on overnight model trends but the threat of accumulating wet snow is looking more likely to impact far downstate into portions of northern KY and even western and portions of north-central TN now.

Monday night’s system has trended further south today.

While we’ll trend at least closer to seasonal levels in the upcoming 10-day period (also need to keep an eye on the potential of late week snow and a brief arctic “jab”), the impact of a lack of MJO amplitude into the colder phases (8, 1) and the positive trends on the EPO late month suggest the once cold idea during the period here will be a fail.

In fact, latest ensemble guidance in today shows a milder than normal pattern to return during the last week, or so, of February.

Just a couple quick updates prior to the big game! Enjoy, friends!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/11/pre-super-bowl-rambles-cooler-week-ahead-but-milder-late-month-trends/

Feb 11

Localized Wet, Heavy Snow Bands Set Up Downstate Monday Night; Tracking 2 Additional Systems In The Week Ahead…

Updated 02.11.24 @ 8:38a

We’ll get to enjoy one more quiet, calm day. Our Super Bowl Sunday will feature a continuation of unseasonably pleasant conditions with plentiful sunshine and mild temperatures. We’ll rise from the upper 20s this morning into the mid to upper 40s this afternoon with dry conditions.

This morning’s visible satellite image shows mostly clear conditions in place across the state.

We’re still tracking an area of low pressure that will move into the lower Ohio Valley Monday. As of this morning, this continues to look like a south of I-70 event, including rain that will overspread downstate Monday afternoon before making the transition to wet snow Monday evening. A period of localized heavier banding is likely Monday night downstate and its within these localized “mesoscale bands” that a few folks may wake up Tuesday morning to 3″+ of snow. Otherwise, this appears to be a 1″ to 2″ slushy accumulation for our friends from the southern Indianapolis ‘burbs and points south. Outside of the heavier banding zone, this will be an accumulation event that takes place on grassy and elevated surfaces only.

An area of low pressure will lead to unsettled weather downstate to open the work week.

This is the zone we highlight for the potential of the meso banding to set up, leading to the potential of a bit more “hefty” accumulation.

We’ll be left with a few scattered snow showers Tuesday morning, otherwise, that’ll be it with this system for our neck of the woods. Heads up, if your travels take you to the Northeast big cities this week, plan for impacts from this system. (This should be the most widespread heavy snow so far this season from in and around NYC up to Boston).

Attention here will then shift to a weak (rain maker) system Thursday and then another opportunity for wintry mischief to close the week. Stay tuned!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/11/localized-wet-heavy-snow-bands-set-up-downstate-monday-night-tracking-2-additional-systems-in-the-week-ahead/

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