Updated 03.31.22 @ 7:09a
As we look ahead over the next couple weeks, a rather active pattern is expected to continue, including multiple storm systems that will likely impact our area every few days. This will likely also result in brief but significant spikes of warmth ahead of the system (example: yesterday’s high of 78°) in what otherwise will be a period of cooler than normal conditions.
Despite the active nature of the pattern, precipitation should be pretty close to average through the middle of April, locally. The heavier rainfall, relative to average, will be confined to the Gulf Coast.
It’s been a while since we talked about the MJO and that’s due to it being a non-factor over the past couple weeks residing in the null, or neutral, phase.
Other teleconnections (namely the NAO and EPO) have supported the overall cooler regime of late. However, these drivers are in the process of flipping to states (positive) that will at least likely attempt to drive more sustained warmth our way as we approach mid-April. Modeling may be catching on to that as well. Note when looking at 5-day increments, the ‘mean’ trough position is looking to dump the trough into the West closer to mid April.
Moral of the story is to hang in there. Though we still yet have additional chilly times to get through over the next 10-14 days, there’s reason to begin buying into the potential of more sustained warmth trying to take hold towards mid and late month.