January 20, 2022 archive

Long Range Outlook Into Mid-February…

Updated 01.20.22 @ 10:18p

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to remain in the neutral, or “null, phase into early February. Phase 8 did the “dirty work” on helping drive a more persistent cold pattern into the eastern United States prior to moving into the null phase.

You know the drill, that means we will lean on the teleconnection blend to formulate the baseline of the upcoming 2-4 weeks. During the middle of winter, we lean heaviest on the AO, PNA, and EPO. (The NAO will be more strongly factored into the equation during the late winter and into spring).

2 out of 3 of the big teleconnection drivers favor cold to wrap up the month and open February. The one fly in the ointment? The strongly negative PNA. With that said, if we can, indeed, get the EPO and AO to come to fruition, it’s a stormy, cold signal as compared to what we saw back in December.

Thinking here is that headlines during the Weeks 1-2 period will continue to be dominated by cold before some moderation of the cold allows an increasingly stormy signal to grab the attention in the Weeks 3-4 period. Far too early for specifics, but more in the way of moisture-laden systems should emerge beyond next week.

30 Day temperature anomaly map for the upcoming 30 days.
A more active storm track will emerge as we head into February.

While we still are in the cold camp to open February, pressure will be put on the pattern that should drive more eastern ridging once out of the 1st week. Accordingly, the pattern should flip towards more of a persistent above normal regime roughly between Feb. 7th and 14th. Above normal precipitation would also be favored into the 1st half of February.

Upper pattern projected Feb. 7th-14th per the latest European Weeklies
Surface temperature anomalies Feb. 7th-14th per the latest European Weeklies.
Upper pattern Feb. 14th-21st per the latest European Weeklies
Surface temperature anomalies Feb. 14th – 21st per the latest European Weeklies

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/20/long-range-outlook-into-mid-february/

VIDEO: Bitterly Cold Wind Chills; Tracking Light Snow Chances Sunday And Looking Ahead To February…

Updated 01.20.22 @ 7:32a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/20/video-bitterly-cold-wind-chills-tracking-light-snow-chances-sunday-and-looking-ahead-to-february/

IndyWx.com