October 2021 archive

Oct 11

VIDEO: Storms Arrive This Afternoon And Evening; Tracking A Cooler Push Of Air For The Weekend…

Updated 10.11.21 @ 12a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/11/video-storms-arrive-this-afternoon-and-evening-tracking-a-cooler-push-of-air-for-the-weekend/

Oct 10

Weekly #AGwx And #Harvest21 Outlook…

Updated 10.10.21 @ 10:14a

The predominant pattern in the week ahead will feature an eastern ridge and western trough.
Temperatures will run well above normal across the East while an early taste of winter will reside across the West.
Rainfall will run well above normal this week from the southern Plains into the western Great Lakes along with the northern Plains.
We think most central Indiana rain gauges accumulate between 0.75” and 1.25” in the 7-day period.
We continue to track the potential of strong to severe storms Monday afternoon and evening.

Forecast Period: 10.10.21 through 10.17.21

While the bulk of the forecast period will run well above normal, this will be a much more active 7-day period than we’ve seen of late. The first storm system will approach Monday afternoon. After a warm, breezy, and mostly dry day, a line of storms will move through from west to east during the afternoon and evening. Strong damaging straight line winds appear to be the greatest threat but there will also be the potential of an isolated tornado. We bracket the hours from 2p to 10p for this line of storms to impact the state. Another storm system will move through the area late in the work week with widespread rain and a shot of much cooler, fall-like air as we head into next weekend. Dry conditions should return just in time for the weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/10/weekly-agwx-and-harvest21-outlook-6/

Oct 09

Monitoring Monday’s Storm Threat…

Updated 10.09.21 @ 9:30a

After a mostly dry, sunny, and unseasonably warm weekend, our next storm system will approach as we kick off the work week. Southerly winds will usher in an unseasonably moist airmass to combine with August-like temperatures (highs once again are expected to shoot into the lower and middle 80s).

Southerly winds will transport unseasonably muggy air north Monday. South winds will gust 30-35 MPH at times.
Dew points will climb into the middle and upper 60s ahead of the approaching cold front Monday.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlines the western Ohio Valley, including most of Indiana, into the central Great Lakes region for a Slight Risk of severe weather Monday.

A surface wave is expected to develop along the pressing cold front Sunday evening and track northeast into the Great Lakes. After a warm, dry, and breezy start to Monday, a line of thunderstorms should develop late Monday morning or early afternoon across western IL. This line will then track east and move into Indiana during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Given some of the ingredients in place, the primary concern with this line of storms will be the potential of damaging straight line winds. There also is the potential of a couple rotating storms within this overall line of storms that could pose an isolated tornado threat.

After the stormy time of things Monday PM (rainfall amounts should check-in between 0.50″ and 1″ for most), conditions will improve as we move through the day Tuesday. Another (weaker) system will push into the area midweek, but as of now this doesn’t look like a significant event.

A stronger cold front will arrive to close the week with more widespread rain. After an unseasonably warm stretch, cooler air should finally filter into the region next weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/09/monitoring-mondays-storm-threat/

Oct 08

VIDEO: Warming Up This Weekend; Another Busy Week Ahead…

Updated 10.08.21 @ 11:35a

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Oct 07

VIDEO: Conditions Improve Through The Weekend; Tracking 2 Storm Systems Next Week…

Updated 10.07.21 @ 11:15a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/07/video-conditions-improve-through-the-weekend-tracking-2-storm-systems-next-week/

Oct 06

VIDEO: Unsettled Times Give Way To Summer-Like Warmth This Weekend; Taste Of Winter Settles Into The West…

Updated 10.06.21 @ 1:54p

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/06/video-unsettled-times-give-way-to-summer-like-warmth-this-weekend-taste-of-winter-settles-into-the-west/

Oct 06

Wednesday Morning Rambles: Not Finished With Those 80s…

Updated 10.06.21 @ 9a I. Unsettled conditions will continue through the end of the work week. A “cut off” low pressure system will begin to lift north today and pull…

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Oct 05

VIDEO: Widespread Rain Returns Thursday; Summer-Like Weekend Ahead…

Updated 10.05.21 @ 6:55a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/05/video-widespread-rain-returns-thursday-summer-like-weekend-ahead/

Oct 04

VIDEO: Timing Out More When Rain Becomes More Widespread; Warm Pattern Continues…

Updated 10.04.21 @ 7:20a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/04/video-timing-out-more-when-rain-becomes-more-widespread-warm-pattern-continues/

Oct 03

Weekly #AGwx And #Harvest21 Outlook…

Updated 10.03.21 @ 11a

While a trough settles into the West, the eastern portion of the country will have to deal with a pesky cut off low for a good chunk of the forecast period.
Well above normal temperatures will dominate the northern tier, Plains, and East through the period while cooler conditions settle into the West.
A wet pattern will be associated with the cut off low across the Deep South and Ohio Valley. Wetter conditions will also develop across the West.
We forecast central Indiana to pick up 0.50″ to 1″ of rain in the 7-day forecast period with localized heavier totals.

Forecast Period: 10.03.21 through 10.10.21

A stubborn cut off low pressure system will keep things unsettled around these parts for a good chunk of the forecast period. It certainly won’t rain the entire period, but compared to the past couple of weeks, most will notice a drastic difference in the wetter conditions. We think greatest coverage of rain will come today and midweek. By this time next week, most central Indiana rain gauges can expect to tack on an additional 0.50″ to 1″ of rain with locally heavier totals.

The other big story by late in the week will be an expanding ridge of high pressure. This will keep our region well above normal from a temperature perspective, including the likelihood of multiple days of 80°+ in the 6-10 day stretch. This will be driven by a strongly negative PNA and positive EPO and is supported by October La Ninas from the past (analogs). The persistent warmer than normal regime shouldn’t really go anywhere in the longer range. It’s not until we get to the 2nd half of November (and beyond) when we believe a more profound shift to more persistent cold lurks.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/03/weekly-agwx-and-harvest21-outlook-5/

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