After an unseasonably cool and dry week to open the month, much more active times await as we head into the middle of August.
Upper air disturbances will ride southeast into the region to open the work week on the nose of a much more humid airmass trying to invade the area. These ripples of energy will be enough to lead to more organized thunderstorms, including locally heavy rain at times. Unlike what’s typical this time of year, this week will feature times of storms that rumble in during the nighttime and morning hours.
A frontal boundary will settle south into the region during the middle and latter parts of the work week before stalling out. This will serve as a focal point for additional thunderstorm chances for the 2nd half of the week, continuing into the weekend.
While it’ll be a warmer week, it’s more the humidity that will really make a difference. Daytime highs will remain close to average this week, overall, but overnight lows will be muggy- only falling to around 70° most nights.
We have no changes to our weekly rainfall forecast: 1″ to 2″ for most with localized heavier totals where stronger storms track.
I’ll be on the road tomorrow and will have our client video posted Monday evening.
While we still have a few weeks left of meteorological summer, we’re hard at work finalizing our fall outlook and prep continues for winter. By the way, our fall outlook will be online Friday morning, the 28th.
From this distance, there’s obviously a risk involved with seasonal data that we’re reviewing and tweaks (particularly to the initial winter idea) will undoubtedly have to be made. In short, we anticipate a weak La Niña to dominate the fall and winter, with a robust MJO.
Of course, it’s important to remember, no La Niña is like the other and a simple “broad brush” approach never works.
Without question, the tropics will claim headlines through the fall. Unfortunately, like others, we anticipate a significant uptick in activity late August into October. A few major hurricanes are likely, as well. The Gulf of Mexico and Carolina coast appears particularly vulnerable…
Most computer model data is leaning towards a warm autumn. We’d agree, overall, but leaning wetter than the majority of data right now, due in large part to tropical impacts.
European seasonal data for September through November.European seasonal data for September through November.CFSv2 seasonal data September through November. CFSv2 seasonal data for September through November.JAMSTEC seasonal data for September through November.JAMSTEC seasonal data for September through November.
The coolest of the seasonal data is the CFSv2. It’s easy to interpret a cooler Central and East if the ridge and associated heat is so strong across the West. We will keep close tabs on trends over the next few weeks. Nina falls are notorious for at least a few weeks early on of unseasonably cool weather as well. Stay tuned.
As for winter, from this distance we’re bullish on a wetter, warmer than normal season, locally. Below normal snowfall is expected as of now. A dominant southeast ridge is expected to carry the day, at times flexing north into the TN and Ohio Valley.
European seasonal data November through January.JAMSTEC seasonal data December through February CFSV2 seasonal data December through February
Interesting, like fall, the CFSv2 is the “coolest” of the big 3 seasonal models. Again, we’ll continue to keep close eyes on trends. Given performance of recent winters past, you may say I’ll just go with the opposite of what these seasonal models say. You’d have good reason for doing so. Unfortunately, that southeast ridge almost seems like a lock though. It’s also becoming more difficult to ignore the trends over the past decade or two.
Much more later on both fall and winter! Enjoy your Sunday!
