A warm and humid airmass will remain intact through the next 72 hours. Little impulses of energy scooting across the area will be all that’s needed to ignite scattered showers and thunderstorms, but not all will see rain. Due to the moisture content, those that do find themselves under a shower or storm can expect locally heavy totals. Thursday will likely offer up the best chance of more widespread thunderstorm activity.
Friday will continue to offer up scattered showers and thunderstorms courtesy of a cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. Once this front slides south, MUCH drier and cooler air will filter into central Indiana, leading to a fantastic weekend. A northeasterly flow around high pressure will create a much more refreshing feel. Lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are a good bet this weekend.
The cooler, more refreshing air won’t stick around for more than a few days before warmth rebuilds. This is in association with the MJO moving into Phase 1 (a phase favoring widespread warmth across the Lower 48 this time of year). Drier conditions should prevail as temperatures warm early June.
An interesting item to keep tabs on has to do with the potential of tropical “mischief” in the Gulf towards mid-late month. If you have beach plans down to those beautiful Gulf Coast beaches, this is something I’d recommend keeping a close eye on over the next 2-3 weeks. Should something develop, the pattern would favor the central/ eastern Gulf it would appear from this distance.