December 2018 archive

Dec 12

Stormy Pattern Ahead For The Heart Of The Holiday Season?

A “relaxation” of the well below normal cold is on the way.

While this will support a 5-10 day period of temperatures of 5° to 10° above average (milder overnight lows, and a few days with highs at or above 50° are a good bet during the period, as well), the stage is already being set in motion for a return of colder conditions around the Christmas holiday.  While admittedly, transitional periods can be “finicky,” there’s support from other pattern drivers behind a wintry return between the 12.22 and 12.24 time period.  Furthermore, data suggests that there will be plenty of storminess to boot.

For those that love to review the operational model data as it rolls in (in some cases, up to 4 times per day), expect wild swings as the data begins to “hone in.”  Despite some of that model fluctuation, we expect the pattern to look something like this around Christmas.

We expect the mean ridge position to set up shop over the Pacific northwest.  This will result in a warmer than average regime across the west.  At the same time, the trough will be pushing back into the east. As the cold air settles back in, we expect a rather active time of things during the period.  This certainly doesn’t mean we’re talking snow storms, but it does appear likely that at least one or two systems of interest loom.  We’ll have to deal with the challenges that will come from one or both as time draws closer.

While a “transitional” pattern appears likely around Christmas, there are growing concerns of a return of sustained cold as we get into the new year.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/12/stormy-pattern-ahead-for-the-heart-of-the-holiday-season/

Dec 11

Turning More Unsettled; Looking Ahead Towards Christmas…

A couple of storm systems will impact the region between Wednesday and the weekend, but neither look particularly impressive. What does look a little more “interesting” is the pattern evolution as we get closer to Christmas… Video discussion and updated 7-day below!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/11/turning-more-unsettled-looking-ahead-towards-christmas/

Dec 10

Freezing Fog This Morning; Unsettled Late Week Conditions…

Highlights:

  • Freezing fog this morning
  • Mid and late week rain
  • Briefly milder mid-month

Slow It Down…Freezing fog is creating slick travel in and around the city, itself, and points north.  Please allow extra time to reach your destination this morning and take it slow.  As we move into the afternoon, the low clouds and fog should slowly lift, but it’s likely not until we get to mid to late afternoon. With the longer period of fog and clouds, we’ve dropped forecast highs a few degrees today.

We should still get in on a sunny Tuesday before our first of a series of storm system begin to impact the area Wednesday.  Weak low pressure will result in increasing clouds and a narrow band of showers Wednesday afternoon.  Rain may mix with snow across north-central parts of the state.

As we look ahead, a slow moving (bigger) storm system spells periods of wet weather as we close the week and head into the weekend.  While it won’t rain the entire time, periods of moderate to heavy rain are possible during the period, along with gusty winds, and an overall “raw” feel.  Early thinking here is that we salvage the 2nd half of the weekend with at least a touch of sun.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/10/freezing-fog-this-morning-unsettled-late-week-conditions/

Dec 09

Nice Quiet Stretch Of Weather…

Highlights:

  • Nice stretch of sunny days
  • Moderating temperatures
  • Late week storm system

Needed Vitamin D…It’s not often that we can string up consecutive sunny days in early and mid December, but that’s exactly what we’ll do this week- and we won’t complain!  With the clear, calm conditions, overnight lows will continue to plummet into the 10s before we slowly begin to moderate as we move into the middle of the week.

With the moderating temperatures will also come increasing moisture as a new storm system organizes to our southwest Wednesday night and Thursday.  Models continue to differ on specifics with respect to rainfall totals and we’ll fine tune things as we progress through the next couple of days. While late week turns unsettled, we don’t expect a wash-out any day.

Looking ahead, the longer term models continue to suggest we’re going to pull out of the predominantly cold pattern that we’ve been in with an overall milder shift in the pattern for the next couple of weeks.  There’s much debate around when the flip back to a cold pattern returns- is it in time for Christmas or closer to the New Year?

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/09/nice-quiet-stretch-of-weather/

Dec 08

Cold And Quiet; Big Winter Storm To Our Southeast…

Highlights:

  • Prolonged stretch of cold, quiet weather
  • Major winter storm for the southern Appalachians
  • Next storm delivers rain late next week

Brrrrrrr…It’s another frigid early December morning across central Indiana, but there really isn’t any “exciting” weather to discuss through the early part of next week.  High pressure will supply quiet conditions through the daytime Wednesday.  We’ll notice some mid and high level cloudiness today from a winter storm that will drop historic snow amounts across the southern Appalachians tonight into Monday.  Otherwise, plentiful sunshine can be expected with slowly moderating temperatures into the new work week.

Clouds will lower and thicken Wednesday afternoon and light rain will likely arrive after dark.  Our next storm system will deliver rain and gusty winds in here late week.  Though we haven’t “taken the bait” just yet, there’s the chance of some wind-whipped wrap-around snow Friday.  We’ll give it another couple model runs before building that into the forecast…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/08/cold-and-quiet-big-winter-storm-to-our-southeast/

Dec 07

Cold, But A Good Supply Of Vitamin D…

Highlights:

  • Frigid start
  • Prolonged stretch of sunny weather
  • Next storm holds off until mid to late next week

Bundle Up…“Number-busting” cold has settled into many Mid West communities this morning as just enough snow cover combined with clearing overnight skies.  The result is a 5º to as much as a 10º difference in actual low temperatures this morning when compared to the majority of guidance yesterday.  Bundle up, as many across central Indiana are waking up to temperatures in the upper single digits to middle 10s.  Thankfully, dry conditions are expected not only today, but straight through the weekend and on into early next week- along with plentiful sunshine!

Temperatures will gradually turn “less cold” early next week and we’re eyeing our next storm system for a Wednesday night to Thursday arrival.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/07/cold-but-a-good-supply-of-vitamin-d/

Dec 06

…Slick Spots Possible on Roads and Overpasses…

The Indianapolis National Weather Service has issued the following SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT: Special Weather Statement...UPDATED National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 236 PM EST Thu Dec 6 2018 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-070100- Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery- Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/06/slick-spots-possible-on-roads-and-overpasses/

Dec 06

Snow’s On The Lunchtime Menu; Cold, But Quiet Stretch Of Weather Ahead…

Highlights:

  • Snow arrives around lunchtime
  • Cold weekend ahead
  • Increasing sunshine

Messy Afternoon Commute For Some…The day is starting quiet, but a fast moving arctic cold front will push through the state this afternoon.  Ahead of the boundary, an expanding area of precipitation will break out late morning into the early afternoon hours.  From the city and points north, most of this should fall as wet snow.  South of the city, a mixture of rain and snow is expected.  A quick 1″ of snow is likely for areas north of Indianapolis and as temperatures fall this afternoon and evening, a slick evening commute is possible.  Allow yourself extra time.

Cold air will reinforce itself behind the front tonight and through the weekend, BUT sunshine will return!  All eyes will be off to our south as a major winter storm impacts our friends across the TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians.  If you’re one of our viewers from the east TN/ western NC mountains, get to the grocery store today and plan to hunker down.  You’ll need the yardstick to measure this one when all is said and done Monday night…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/06/snows-on-the-lunchtime-menu-cold-but-quiet-stretch-of-weather-ahead/

Dec 05

Snow Arrives Thursday And Looking Ahead…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/05/snow-arrives-thursday-and-looking-ahead/

Dec 05

Cold Pattern Continues With Light Snow; Major Winter Storm To Our South This Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Light snow showers makes things slick in spots
  • Reinforcing cold air arrives with a band of snow Thursday
  • Watching a southern Winter Storm this weekend

Wintry Times…We’re waking up to light snow showers across central Indiana, thanks to just enough upper level energy interacting with the colder air. Coverage of snow showers will be greatest this morning.  As we look forward, reinforcing cold air will blow into town Thursday evening.  Ahead of this cold front, look for a band of precipitation to develop around, or just after, the lunchtime hour.  For central and northern portions of the state, this will fall in the form of snow with a rain/ snow mix expected across southern sections of the state.  A quick dusting to 1″ of snow is possible Thursday afternoon.  Areas of lake effect snow will then develop across the northern Indiana snow belt Thursday night.

We close the week on a dry note, but all eyes will be aimed to our south on a major winter storm.  The Southern Appalachians continue to look like the “sweet spot” for this storm- including snow amounts that will require a yardstick to measure by the time all is said and done early next week.  Back here on the home front, we remain confident the brunt of this storm will remain south of central Indiana, but the potential is there for a bit of snow to “sneak” into the forecast Sunday- courtesy of upper level energy on the tail end of the storm.  Stay tuned as we continue to review the data over the next couple days.  If you’re a skier, we suggest packing the bags and heading southeast to the mountains of NC for some tremendous early season skiing early next week in the wake of the storm.

Early next week will feature calmer conditions with moderating temperatures as high pressure returns.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/05/cold-pattern-continues-with-light-snow-major-winter-storm-to-our-south-this-weekend/

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