March 2018 archive

VIDEO: Nice Today; Messy Friday Night & Accumulating Snow For Some Early Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/15/video-nice-today-messy-friday-night-accumulating-snow-for-some-early-next-week/

Only The Messenger…

While we continue to believe more of a wholesale pattern change awaits early-mid April, we still have a long way to go before we can shake the overall wintry pattern.  When the pattern does flip, the potential is certainly there (as alluded to last weekend) for a rather “turbulent” time, including an uptick on the severe front.

Before we get to April, we still have a prolonged period of overall colder than normal conditions to deal with.  We don’t have any changes to the idea the northern Plains are ground-zero for coldest anomalies, but, it’ll also be plenty chilly, locally, as well.

A couple of storm systems continue to have our attention over the upcoming week:

Potential of freezing rain, especially across the northern half and northeastern parts of the state Friday night into the morning hours Saturday.

Secondly, rain arriving on the scene Monday that will transition to wet snow Tuesday into Wednesday morning, as illustrated by the European model below.

From this distance, neither storms seem to be a “big deal” for central Indiana.  However, we know March storms can “surprise.”  Just ask our friends across KY earlier this week.  🙂  Spring warmth attacking south of systems combined with unusually cold air, associated with the blocking, just to our north can lead to all sorts of fun and models may have to play catch up last minute in some areas.  At the very least, we recommend keeping an eye on the forecast over the next week, or so.

On a more positive note, it still looks like we’ll enjoy plentiful sunshine tomorrow and after a raw, damp start to our St. Patrick’s Day, drier times should win out Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

Much more later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/14/only-the-messenger/

VIDEO: Snow Squalls Tonight; Wintry Pattern Overall…

Quick video update on the go this evening discussing an overall wintry time of things over the upcoming 5-7 days!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/13/video-snow-squalls-tonight-wintry-pattern-overall/

VIDEO: Wintry Open To The Week; Cold Hangs Through Late March…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/12/video-wintry-open-to-the-week-cold-hangs-through-late-march/

Week Ahead: Cold Open Gives Way To Warmer Air In Time For St. Patrick’s Day…

A storm system will gather strength to our south as we progress through the day and into the night.  While central Indiana won’t experience significant impacts from this storm, we’ll indirectly deal with this system with considerable cloudiness and a chilly easterly breeze today.

Our friends to our south (KY and the higher elevations of the southern Appalachians) can expect accumulating snow.  The east TN and western NC mountains will accumulate over 6″ above 5,000 feet late tonight through Monday morning.

The region will be under the grips of a cold northerly flow through the first half of the work week.  Embedded within that air flow will be a couple of upper level disturbances that will drop into the Ohio Valley.  These impulses of energy will help kick off snow showers and localized heavier squalls at times Monday through Wednesday.  Some localized accumulations of a dusting to 1″ will be possible.

High pressure will gain control of our weather Thursday and this will include the start of a nice moderating trend for the second half of the week, including the St. Patrick’s Day weekend.  With full sunshine Thursday, along with WAA (warm air advection) kicking in, we think highs will top out much warmer than the majority of current guidance suggests.  We’ll go with widespread mid to upper 50s Thursday.

Unfortunately, we’ll add more clouds and showers next weekend.  Wet weather will build in Friday and we can’t rule out shower chances Saturday, as well.  Temperatures will warm well into the 60s by St. Patrick’s Day!

In general, we expect 0.25″ to 0.50″ across central IN with showers in the Friday-Saturday time period.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/11/week-ahead-cold-open-gives-way-to-warmer-air-in-time-for-st-patricks-day/

VIDEO: Saturday Morning Thoughts On Late March…

In the midst of trying to keep Bo, our youngest golden doodle, from becoming a tremendous distraction in this morning’s video, here are some thoughts on what lies ahead over…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/10/video-saturday-morning-thoughts-on-late-march/

VIDEO: Weekend And Beyond…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/09/video-weekend-and-beyond/

Long Road Ahead To Sustained Spring…

We note the modeling continues to want to keep the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) negative into late month. As mentioned in previous discussions, the NAO is “king” late winter and spring.

It should be no surprise that the GEFS 5-day temperature anomaly shows widespread below normal air centered on March 22nd.

This doesn’t mean brief surges of warmth, originating in the southern Plains, can’t shoot into the Ohio Valley for a couple of days.  Perhaps we’ll “luck out” and enjoy a briefly milder time for St. Patrick’s Day.  This does, however, mean that overall we have a long, long way to go before “stick and hold” spring can arrive, locally, and the balance of the upcoming 2-3 weeks looks colder than average.

Side note:  The upcoming couple weeks looks drier than average for our region, while the TN Valley into the Carolinas remains abnormally wet.  Our friends in the southern Plains continue to deal with dry times and the drought will only worsen in coming weeks there…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/08/long-road-ahead-to-sustained-spring/

VIDEO: Snowy For Some; Late March Talk…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/07/video-snowy-for-some-late-march-talk/

Weekend Mischief…

The block continues to do it’s dirty work.  An active pattern will continue for the foreseeable future and models will struggle handling the all-important specifics until a couple days before the event(s)- if not the day of.

The first few days of March have gotten off to a warmer than average start, but the coming 5-10 days will run colder than average across a large portion of our region.

Perhaps of more importance, and a greater focus, locally, is the potential one of these storms will slow down and intensify into something more significant than a 12-24 hour period of snow showers and squalls.  The first contender arrives over the upcoming weekend, but with this being 4-5 days out, confidence remains low.

We note the latest GFS continues to “string out” the energy.  The end result would be the potential of some mixed rain and snow showers late weekend into early in the work week, but nothing much more than that.

However, it’s important to understand model biases from this distance.  So often, the GFS can rush things along in the medium range, only to later correct as time draws closer.  If things slow, the associated energy will merge and result in the possibility of a significant, if not major, late-winter storm for portions of the Ohio Valley.  As it is, a few of the GEFS ensemble members show this potential.

Unfortunately, there’s no way to be more specific from this distance.  It’s easy to see both arguments (for and against a more significant storm) from this point, but with high latitude blocking in place (an ingredient missing most of the time from this winter, and several of the past few winters), we most certainly need to keep close tabs on subsequent model runs.  Long-time Hoosiers remember when storms of significance actually did, indeed, impact the area.  🙂

It won’t take much in this pattern for things to slow down enough for a non event to become a big event…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/06/weekend-mischief/

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