March 2018 archive

I’m Dreaming Of A White…Easter?

A cold front will blow through central Indiana this evening and colder air will spill into the region overnight.  We’ll wake up with temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s Easter morning with dry conditions in place.

Most of the daytime Easter Sunday will feature dry conditions.  Clouds will increase, lower, and thicken through the afternoon ahead of an area of low pressure that will track through the lower Ohio Valley Easter night.  This will spread precipitation into central Indiana towards 5p-6p.  Initially, precipitation is likely to begin as a cold rain, but we expect a rather quick transition to wet snow shortly after the onset.  Periods of moderate to heavy snow will fall into the nighttime across the I-70 corridor.  This will lead to reduced visibility and slick travel as snowfall rates will (once again) overcome marginally cold surface and pavement temperatures.  If you must travel tomorrow night and early Monday, expect roadways to be slick at times- including being slush and snow covered.

Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like tomorrow night, courtesy of weatherbell.com:

6p forecast radar

8p forecast radar

10p forecast radar

12a forecast radar Monday

This will be a rather quick-hitting event, but “thump” potential is written all over it, including localized intense banding.  These localized bands could result in a couple of reports of 4″+ in spots.  We think heaviest snow falls in the 6p-midnight window.

Our current snowfall forecast:

Another winter event is possible next weekend, including the potential of additional accumulating snow.  Should we get snow down, the possibility of near-record cold is present with the late season blast of arctic air next weekend.  Lows in the 10s aren’t out of the question at least one night next weekend- likely Sunday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/31/im-dreaming-of-a-white-easter/

VIDEO: Gusty Winds & Showers This Afternoon; Accumulating Snow For Easter…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/31/video-gusty-winds-accumulating-snow-for-easter/

Easter Snow Is No April Fool’s Joke For Parts Of The Region…

A cold front will blow through the state Saturday evening (accompanied by showers and gusty winds) before becoming stationary across the Tennessee Valley region on Easter Sunday.  At the same time, a relatively flat wave will scoot east out of the Plains and across the southern Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon and night.  This will spread moisture across the southern half of Indiana Sunday evening.  With unseasonably cold air in place, most, if not all, of the precipitation will fall in the form of snow Sunday evening into the wee morning hours Monday.

Forecast radar 7p Easter Sunday, courtesy of Weathermodels.com.

While we still have another 24-36 hours to monitor the modeling, confidence is rather high from this distance that the southern half of the state (especially south of the I-70 corridor) will experience at least a light accumulation of snow Sunday evening and night- potentially a 1″ to 3″ type event.  This won’t be anything like central parts of the state dealt with last weekend, but considering the time of the year, this will serve as a reminder that winter isn’t giving up without a fight this year.

Speaking of that, don’t look now, but another attempt at an accumulating snow event may be on the table next weekend.  Sigh…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/30/easter-snow-is-no-april-fools-joke-for-parts-of-the-region/

VIDEO: Active Pattern Continues; Wintry Fun And Games Next Weekend?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/29/video-active-pattern-continues-wintry-fun-and-games-next-weekend/

Light At The End Of The Tunnel? Think Again.

March sure has been a wild month!  Indianapolis is running close to 4° below average on the month with around one foot of snow.  The highlight was obviously the 10.2″ of snow that fell last Saturday.

Largely this was driven by the return of blocking- something that has been missing most of this winter and, for that matter, the past couple of winters.  Note the prolonged, sustained negative NAO.  As we’ve written in the past, the NAO, or North Atlantic Oscillation, is the “king” this time of year.  In late winter and spring, negative NAO phases will result in cold periods, even in the face of potentially warmer signals from other, less dominant, teleconnections.

As we look ahead, we don’t really see any significant changes with the forecast NAO into mid-April.

To no surprise, the pattern remains colder than average over the next couple of weeks, overall.

European ensemble predicts well below normal temperatures in the Day 5-10 period, courtesy of Weathermodels.com.

European ensemble predicts well below normal temperatures in the Day 10-15 period, courtesy of Weathermodels.com.

With all of the cold around, it should also be no surprise that at least the threat of additional accumulating snow is on the table.  In fact, an item of “interest” will eject out of the Rocky Mountain region and into the Plains and eastern half of the country in the 8-10 day period.  It’s far too early for specifics, but at least the potential of accumulating snow is present next weekend across the Ohio Valley.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/29/light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel-2/

VIDEO: Active Pattern Remains…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/27/video-active-pattern-remains/

Looking Ahead To Close March And Open April: Cold Set To Return?

Before we discuss some of what has our attention as we move through the next couple of weeks, check out this cool visible satellite image from this morning.  The snowpack shows up nicely.  It’s also neat to see the high resolution modeling understand where that snow pack is and the associated cooler forecast highs compared to areas south and north that didn’t see the heavy snow Saturday.

As we look ahead, a wet week is in store for the region.  Periods of widespread rain, heavy at times, will come at us in waves:

  • Monday evening-Tuesday
  • Thursday
  • Next weekend, including Easter

When totaled up, widespread 2″ totals can be expected, with locally heavier amounts.

After a brief relaxation in the unseasonably cold regime, well below average temperatures are expected to return as we move through early April.  It’ll feel more like winter than spring through the better part of the first half of the month.

It’s also too early to think about yesterday as the last snow of the season.  Given the early April look, it wouldn’t surprise us if an additional snow event or two came along…

(As a reminder, you can always catch our most up-to-date 7-day forecast in the top left of the homepage).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/25/looking-ahead-to-close-march-and-open-april-cold-set-to-return/

Heavy, Wet Snow Continues For Most Of Central Indiana…

Right out of the gate, our ongoing snowfall forecast remains unchanged:

Heavy, wet snow will continue through the majority of the day for central Indiana.  At times, banding will produce snowfall rates in excess of 1″ per hour.  On the southern periphery of the snow zone, a mixture of sleet and rain will mix in at times, but as precipitation rates increase, dynamic cooling will keep the predominant precipitation type as snow even on the southern tier.

Despite marginally cold pavement temperatures, the heavy snowfall rate is having no problem accumulating on area roadways and multiple traffic hazards have already been reported this morning, particularly in Boone County.  If you don’t have to travel today, it’s best to remain at home.

As temperatures fall into the lower to middle 20s tonight, refreezing will occur and areas of black ice will develop, especially on untreated, secondary roadways.

The “big dig” will begin in earnest Sunday morning as dry conditions return and the added increasingly strong March sun angle will also help in clean up efforts by afternoon.

By the way, please keep your snow reports and photos coming!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/24/heavy-wet-snow-continues-for-most-of-central-indiana/

Settling In From The Road: Quick Review Of Latest Thoughts…

I apologize for not having an update out sooner, but have been on the road all day and just getting settled in.  With that said, I’ve been keeping up-to-date with the latest model data and really have no significant changes to our ongoing snowfall forecast:

Latest highlights:

  • A cold rain will overspread the state during the overnight
  • Expect rain to change to wet snow during the pre-dawn hours for Indianapolis and surrounding areas
  • Heavy wet snow will continue through the morning and afternoon and where heaviest bands set up, snowfall rates of 1″+ per hour can be anticipated
  • Winds will gust to 30 MPH+ into the evening hours Saturday
  • Snow will diminish from northwest to southeast Saturday evening
  • As we always say, late March snow events always bring surprises and while bust potential is present (both on the high and low side on the going forecast), this is our best idea and it’ll be fun to watch things unfold.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/23/settling-in-from-the-road-quick-review-of-latest-thoughts/

Winter Storm Impacts Central Indiana Saturday…

Today is the proverbial “calm before the storm” as sunny skies give way to increasingly cloudy conditions during the afternoon and evening.  We remain dry today and pleasant, too, with highs around 50 across most central Indiana reporting sites.

Things will begin to change rather quickly during the overnight as rain builds into the state from northwest to southeast, especially after midnight.  As we move through the predawn hours (5a to 7a time frame) we expect rain to transition to wet heavy snow across central parts of the state, including Indianapolis.

The culprit?  Surface low pressure tracking off the lee of the Rockies (today) into the Missouri boot heel (Saturday evening).  Add in a blocking high to the north and this will help provide the cold needed to lead to our winter storm.  From an overall pattern perspective, this “blocky” regime is really what’s been missing for the better part of the past few years as we’ve written in previous posts.  It’s no coincidence that with the blocky regime, central parts of the state are in line for the biggest winter storm in years.  Also of interest is the correlation between late winter blocking patterns and what the next winter can provide, along with other items (another story for another day), but there’s reason to believe we may be on the cusp of returning to winters featuring more snow in the coming 2-3 years.

Back to the present:

Our snowfall forecast includes a widespread swath of 4″ to 8″ amounts through the heart of the state.

We remain very impressed with the prospects of banding which could include snowfall rates of 1″ to 2″ per hour Saturday morning into the afternoon hours.  With such snowfall intensity, even marginally cold surface/ pavement temperatures will allow for slick and hazardous travel across many central Indiana communities Saturday.  Additionally, within localized heavier bands, don’t be surprised for a report or two of thundersnow across central Indiana.  Please share your reports with us as things unfold tomorrow!  Finally, an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain will also mix with the snow at times along the southern periphery.

Forecast radar 11a Saturday

Snow should begin to diminish in overall coverage and intensity by Saturday evening- from northwest to southeast.  By that point in time, we’re left with the clean up duties from what will likely be the heaviest snow in a few years for some of us.  The other item to touch on: gusty winds as we still expect 30 MPH + gusts during the day Saturday.

With all of that said, let’s remember March snow events always offer “surprises-” no matter how much we try to eliminate those surprises.  There will be winners and losers with this event in the snow department.

Forecast radar 7p Saturday.

Sunday will feature a return of dry conditions, as well as a return of the sunshine!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/23/winter-storm-impacts-central-indiana-saturday/

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