December 19, 2017 archive

Highlights:

• Unseasonably mild for now
• Dry midweek
• Turning colder and wintry as Christmas approaches

Bottle It Up…By this time next week, most will want to go back in time to the unseasonably pleasant December weather we’re currently experiencing.  If you’re one of these individuals, it’s too bad you just can’t bottle it up for the frigid times that loom.

The short-term period will continue to be dominated by relatively quiet conditions given the time of year.  A storm system will pass to our south Wednesday and provide the Tennessee Valley a good soaking.  We’ll turn cooler for midweek, but remain well above seasonal averages.

A cold front will move towards the region as we wrap up the work week.  This will deliver showers Friday into Saturday before colder air results in a potential transition to wet snow Saturday.  Thereafter, details remain sketchy (at best), but overall confidence is increasing in at least some snow falling during the Christmas Eve – Christmas morning period.

Models are struggling with a second piece of energy that will blow through prior to the big cold blast next week.  Typical model biases are showing themselves this morning (more progressive GFS versus the more amplified European and Canadian).  The best idea at this point is to go with a blend and trend towards a period of snow developing during the afternoon and evening on Christmas Eve, but please understand we’ll have to fine tune things over the next few days.  The other item to consider is that it won’t take much upper energy at all to ring out any available moisture as the arctic intrusion arrives.

Regardless of whether we enjoy Christmas snow or not, the period next week into early parts of 2018 looks particularly cold (at times bitterly so) with additional winter weather opportunities.  Snow removal companies might want to begin stocking up on the coffee!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

• Snowfall: 1″
• Rainfall:  0.50″ – 0.75″