Overall, as mild as this winter has been (particularly on the snow front), it’s easy to think we’re done with wintry precipitation- especially after this stretch of 60°+ weather. That said, we still have to get through March, and as long-time Midwesterners know, the third month of the year can yield some wild swings, including late season wintry events. Yes, including even the mild winters of the past…
Modeling is beginning to show at least a shift towards unseasonably cold conditions as we progress through the first couple of weeks of March. In the face of the prolonged stretch of April-like warmth of late, this will be a shock in and of itself.
Longer-term indications would suggest the period of chilly, wintry-like, air has a window to take over, but the window is small. Trends would seem to yield warmer solutions once past mid-month, with perhaps a “stick and hold” spring regime taking over.
Before that, we have a couple of weeks in front of us to open March that won’t only provide out-of-season cold, but we must also pay close attention to the potential of northwest flow clipper systems. There’s no reason to get detailed and specific from this distance, but the pattern suggests we need to be on the look-out for the potential of one or two snow makers as we move through the first couple weeks of the month. March clippers can be a headache as the March warmth south of the track of the system can help add energy and turn a weak event into an impactful snow event to the north of the low’s track. Hoosiers don’t have to be reminded how significant March clippers can be at times. Is this the year we have to deal with one or two of these stronger clippers? Wouldn’t it be ironic after such a mild winter thus far? Don’t let Mother Nature “lull” you to sleep…
Summary:
Threats and Timing: