December 5, 2016 archive

Dec 05

Arctic Air Inbound…

screen-shot-2016-12-05-at-11-19-01-pmHighlights:

  • Morning showers
  • Snow showers late tomorrow night
  • Arctic air arrives
  • Weekend storm system

Find That Heavier Winter Gear…Our next area of low pressure will push northeast between now (north-central Gulf Coast) and Tuesday night (central Appalachians).  Most of the widespread rain will fall across southeast IN this go around, but enough moisture will spread west to result in scattered to numerous showers Tuesday morning.  With temperatures in the lower to middle 30s, don’t be surprised if a sleet pellet or snow flake mix in at times.  All in all, expect another “raw” day.  Drier times will await for the evening rush home.

Wednesday will feature mostly dry conditions, but the arctic hounds will be howling to our northwest.  Snow showers will precede this arctic blast Wednesday night and Thursday morning and may be enough to accumulate for some.  While models remain drier than we’d expect (given the overall set-up), we may “eek” out just enough moisture to coat the ground up for some. Thursday will be a frigid day, including wind chills in the single digits.  Heavier winter gear will be required to wrap up the work week.

The weekend features more “fun and games” as an area of low pressure attacks stale cold air left over from the late week arctic push.  Is the cold air deep enough to create wintry problems or does the southerly flow help scour out the chill and lead to more of a liquid event.  Stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/12/05/arctic-air-inbound/

Dec 05

Monday Morning Rambles…

1.) Rain builds back in late tonight and Tuesday morning and will favor the southern and eastern half of the state.  Drier trends develop Tuesday afternoon as the moisture pulls northeast.

Forecast radar 11a Tuesday

Forecast radar 11a Tuesday

2.)  A surge of arctic air will pour into the region as we wrap up the work week, including single digit wind chills.  Lows in the 10s and highs in the 20s can be expected Thursday and Friday.

Forecast temperature anomalies to close the work week.

Forecast temperature anomalies to close the work week.

3.)  Despite the cold, snow chances look unimpressive, per the latest data.  While we, personally, still believe there will be more of an arctic wave to deal with along the arctic boundary pressing Wednesday night into Thursday (enough to accumulate), modeling says “we’re crazy” and brings the arctic plunge in without much fanfare (flurries).

4.)  Speaking of snow, modeling also says the 3rd wintry threat we spoke of Sunday (for about a week from now) arrives with a warm-up and is more of a liquid event.  While we tend to think this is still a threat that could deal our region wintry conditions, it would be irresponsible of us not to convey the lower confidence (heck, modeling suggests we’re close to 60 degrees next Monday).

5.)  Our thoughts on a snowy December began last summer as research began on the upcoming winter.  It’s based off a variety of solutions, but leans heavily on the idea blocking would develop and help “lock in” an active pattern with just enough cold air to create the wintry “goods.”  (Pressing cold and an active jet undercutting the cold to create winter storm potential).  While bullish on snow (still are), we’ve never had out a very cold December forecast (instead only “slightly,” or 1 degree, below average).  If the recent weekend trend is correct, it says the upcoming (10) day period we thought would essentially deliver a month’s worth of snow is incorrect.  Sure that gives us the second half of the month to still make up for it, but it becomes increasingly difficult to see the wild model swings and inconsistency without relaying those inconsistencies to you, the viewer.

Our overall thinking remains (as stubborn as it may seem) on December, but please know we also see how this could bust.  There’s a fine line between communicating both ideas to you.  Confidence is lower than we would like it to be…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/12/05/monday-morning-rambles-2/

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