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August 2016 archive
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/20/video-unsettled-now-but-a-beautiful-2nd-half-of-the-weekend-ahead/
Aug 18
Scattered Storms; Turning Much Cooler…
Highlights:
- AM fog burns off today
- Scattered storms
- Much cooler air coming
Afternoon And Evening Thunder…Morning fog (some dense) will eventually burn off and give way to a muggy day. As afternoon heating takes place, scattered evening thunderstorms are a good bet, especially north of Indianapolis. We’ll repeat this to wrap up the work week Friday.
A cold front will take aim at the region Saturday evening and scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this boundary as it moves through. A few storms could reach strong to severe levels Saturday PM as the front moves through.
Winds will shift to the NW and usher in a much cooler and drier brand of air for the second half of the weekend, continuing into the early portion of next week. Many will likely be craving fall by early next week coming off multiple mornings with lows in the 50s.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/18/scattered-storms-turning-much-cooler/
Aug 17
Early Fall Feel Coming…
Highlights:
- Scattered Showers
- Saturday storm chance
- Early fall feel on deck
Drier Overall…It’s been a wet few days across the region. While we’ll begin to transition towards a drier regime to wrap up the work week, scattered showers and storms will remain in the forecast today and Thursday. Best concentration of storms will be located across north-central IN this evening. Rain/ storm coverage will be even less on Thursday.
Our next item of interest will arrive on the scene in the form of a cold front Saturday. Showers and a couple gusty thunderstorms are a good bet Saturday afternoon/ evening as the cold front sweeps through the state. Our winds will then shift to the northwest and help usher in a much cooler, drier time of things for the second half of the weekend. Stepping outside Sunday morning will provide a definite hint of fall, complete with a breezy NW wind.
Early next week will continue to feature dry and unseasonably cool times before we turn our attention to what could potentially be a heavy rain maker setting up just past the 7-day period…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″-0.75″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/17/early-fall-feel-coming/
Aug 16
Another Wet Day…
Highlights:
- Periods of rain
- Increasing sunshine as we push into late week
- Weekend cold front
Keep The Rain Gear Handy…Whew, after an incredibly busy evening, things will be much quieter today. Despite not having a severe threat, we will have to deal with wet times as periods of rain continue. Rain coverage will diminish Wednesday, but we’ll keep scattered showers in the forecast.
Drier air will arrive Thursday and Friday, including a partly cloudy sky. The next weather item on the horizon is a weekend cold front. This frontal boundary will help increase storm chances Saturday into early Sunday (a few storms Saturday evening could be on the strong side). MUCH cooler, early fall-like, air awaits next week…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.75″-1.25″
Here are a few photos I shot Monday evening (8.15.16), between 6:47p-6:55p, just after the tornado touched down in Whitestown.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/16/another-wet-day/
Aug 15
Wet Day; Enhanced Flood Risk Tonight For Some…
The National Weather Service has expanded the Flash Flood Watch to encompass more of the viewing area. This is in effect until 8p Tuesday.
No doubt about it, today will be very wet across the entire region, including periods of heavy rain- especially across the western half of the state.
Tropical moisture will continue to stream into the state tonight into Tuesday. In fact, most intense rains will likely set up tonight and may feature “banding” signatures that would train over the same areas. Within these intense rain bands, prolific rainfall rates can be expected, enhancing the flash flood risk. Latest short-term model data shows this threat, and would place a premium focus on areas generally west of US-31. We’ll have to keep a close eye on things.
Plenty of “juice” is available to tap into across western sections tonight. Precipitable water values (PWATs) of 2″-2.5″ will be more than enough to fuel torrential rainfall.
Eventually (mid and late week), we’ll dry things out and a significant cool down is still in store developing this weekend into early next week. Lows will fall deep into the 50s with highs only in the 70s. Talk about an early taste of fall…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/15/wet-day-enhanced-flood-risk-tonight-for-some/
Aug 14
Heavy Rain Continues; Early Fall Preview Late Next Weekend…
Highlights:
- Periods of heavy rain
- Drying out come mid week
- Cold front arrives next weekend
Flooding Concerns…Renewed heavy rain is pushing through central IN as we write up the morning forecast package. This conveyor belt of moisture will continue to lift northeast and eventually break up and diminish during the late morning and early afternoon. Despite scattered showers this afternoon, drier times will ensue, overall. Unfortunately, this drier period won’t last long as another slug of moisture lifts north late tonight and continues Monday. Additional heavy rainfall can be expected, including the potential of rainfall rates approaching 2″+/ hour. Given the water-logged soils across the region, concerns of flash flooding are very high Monday.
Eventually, we’ll dry things out come mid week and introduce more sunshine back into the forecast. Our next item on the agenda will be a cold front that will sweep through the state Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the boundary as it moves through the region before much drier and cooler air blows in for the second half of the weekend. In fact, a welcomed early fall preview awaits come Sunday. Thoughts of football, pumpkin “everything,” bonfires, and apple cider will be prevalent this time next week…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 2″-4″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/14/heavy-rain-continues-early-fall-preview-late-next-weekend/
Aug 13
“Lull” In The Rain Won’t Last…
Central Indiana is enjoying some needed “down time” in the rainfall department this evening, but this won’t last as rain coverage and intensity returns overnight and Sunday morning. Like today, locally heavy downpours will be likely.
Forecast radar at 4a
Forecast radar at 6a.
Forecast radar at 11a.
In looking at early 00z data, it appears as if we deal with (2) waves of rain Sunday:
Sunday morning will feature widespread rain across central Indiana, including localized heavy rain. Another “lull” in the activity will likely arrive Sunday afternoon into the evening hours, but we caution rain and embedded thunder will really begin to ramp up and increase in coverage and intensity yet again late Sunday night into the day Monday.
The second surge of moisture is more in direct association with the tropical moisture and energy moving north. This area of rain will likely include embedded rates of 3″-4″/ hour for some very localized areas. It’s impossible to pin point where these areas are, but don’t be surprised to hear (or see) some very heavy rain Monday.
A true Gulf of Mexico connection will be present Monday and aid in flooding prospects.
When we factor in expected rain from tomorrow and Monday, it would appear as if central IN is in line to accumulate an additional 2″-4″ with locally heavier amounts. Flooding prospects will increase dramatically Monday as heavy rain falls on saturated soils. Please, take warnings seriously. Rapid water rises are likely.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/13/lull-in-the-rain-wont-last/
Aug 13
Saturday Evening Update…
We’re not even through the first 1/4 of this rain event, and we’ve already had several flash flood warnings issued today. Periods of rain, occasionally heavy, will continue through central IN through the weekend. Additional flash flood warnings will come. As of this report, localized rainfall totals are approaching 3″ in a few spots (Greencastle area, between Vincennes and Bedford, and around Muncie).
As mentioned, this is a long-duration event, but there will be dry times. Perhaps the most widespread heavy rains arrive on the scene late Sunday night into early next week. Monday into Tuesday looks very wet. The moisture and energy associated with the area of low pressure over Louisiana will meander northwest over the next (24) hours before moving north and eventually northeast along the frontal boundary that will be stalled over the region.
Precipitable water will once again surge to 2.5″+ and promote intense rainfall rates over a more widespread portion of the region Sunday night through Tuesday.
Unlike the localized banding features of the rain today, the rain shield should be much more widespread Monday into Tuesday. Factor in the hefty rain totals today into Sunday, combined with additional heavy rain Monday and Tuesday, and it wouldn’t surprise us to see a few double digit rainfall reports by the time all is said and done Wednesday night/ Thursday. Widespread 4″+ totals will be common across central IN by the time all is said and done.
We flip the script next weekend and turn much drier and unseasonably cool. It’ll feel like an early taste of fall next weekend (perhaps even some upper 40s for a few folks across central portions of the state)?!
Heed flood warnings that come over the next few days. Rainfall rates will be downright tropical in nature and result in fast water rise.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/13/saturday-evening-update/
Aug 13
VIDEO: More On Our Multiple Day Heavy Rain Event…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/13/video-more-on-our-multiple-day-heavy-rain-event/
Aug 12
Multi-Day Heavy Rain Event…
Central IN is still in play for a multi-day heavy rain event that begins this weekend and continues into the middle of next week.
The setup is still one that features a wavy cold front that will halt to a crawl (eventually becoming stationary) over central and southern IN over the weekend. Additionally, tropical moisture will continue to slowly push north, before curling northeast (following the frontal boundary) into the Ohio Valley. The image below from Monday displays the setup nicely.
Despite lackluster model output from our American suite (latest NAM and SREF data, for instance, paints rainfall totals under 1″ across most central IN neighborhoods), the European remains consistent on the evolution of things from this weekend into the middle of next week. We’ll lean more towards it’s solution at this juncture. Simply put, when you have a stalled frontal boundary entraining tropical moisture, expect problems. Precipitable water values will approach and even exceed 2″ at times this weekend. Dew points will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s along and south of the boundary. Where the boundary stalls will be key in determining the heaviest rain totals and resulting flood problems that will ensue. For now, here’s the best idea we have in regards to local 4″+ totals between this weekend and next Wednesday.
It should also be pointed out that we’re not looking at all day rains Saturday through Wednesday, but instead “waves” of moisture throughout the period. Areas of locally heavy rain will be with us, but we’ll also see dry periods in between. Thankfully, as we move into the latter portions of next week, drier times should return.
We’ll be here through the weekend to keep you updated on things, as well as on social media. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/12/multi-day-heavy-rain-event/