January 2016 archive

Jan 09

Hope You Like Winter…

Screen Shot 2016-01-09 at 7.20.28 AMHighlights:

  • Rain changes to snow
  • Much colder and windy
  • Quick-hitting intense snow squalls
  • Arctic air

Rain To Snow Late Tonight…Most of today will be mild, but big changes will take place tonight as cold air whips around an area of low pressure that will deliver rain, especially the second half of the day.  With the colder air moving in, rain will change to snow overnight and stick in spots.  Timing the changeover is key in obviously determining snow amounts, but after looking over morning data, we feel as good as we can about our initial snowfall map issued last night.  Additional fine tuning may be required later today, and bust potential remains high.

1stCallSnowfallMap11016The second half of the weekend will feature morning snow along with strong and gusty north winds.  It’ll be a harshly colder day (don’t let that high around freezing fool you, as that will take place around midnight).

Monday will dawn very cold, but dry, but the quiet times will be brief.  Clouds will increase late day and snow will develop Monday night into Tuesday morning.  Embedded heavy, quick-hitting, snow squalls will accompany arctic reinforcements Tuesday morning and set up a messy morning commute.

A third snow maker is possible Thursday and then our attention turns to next weekend for additional wintry “fun and games.”  Get the idea now that we’re in a drastically different pattern when compared to December?

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/09/hope-you-like-winter/

Jan 08

Saturday Night-Sunday Challenges…

Here’s our initial snowfall map, brought to you by dustytaylorphotography.com.

1stCallSnowfallMap11016

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/08/6103/

Jan 08

Busy Times; Winter To Make A Come Back…

Screen Shot 2016-01-08 at 7.01.21 AMHighlights:

  • Wet close to the week
  • Rain to snow Saturday night into early Sunday
  • One-two punch of arctic air
  • Snow squalls Tuesday

Wet Close To The Week; Winter Blows In To Town…The region will deal with two storm systems as we go through the next few days.  Today’s area of low pressure will be responsible for pushing rain showers through the state and while it won’t rain the entire day, it’ll be wise to keep the rain gear nearby.

A secondary area of low pressure will lift northeast Saturday into Saturday night.  Heavier rains will arrive into central IN Saturday afternoon and the precise track of this second area of low pressure is key in determining the transition from rain to snow as cold air arrives on the scene.  As of now, we’ll focus on a changeover overnight Saturday night/ Sunday morning.  Initial thinking paints a 1″-3″ swath across central IN, but before issuing our first snowfall map, we want to have an opportunity to see the complete 12z model suite.

Regardless of how much snow falls Sunday morning, expect a much colder feel and strong and gusty winds as we go through the second half of the weekend.  Arctic reinforcements arrive Tuesday and we’ll know it.  Expect snow squalls and bitterly cold air for mid week.

Looking ahead, busy times continue down the road.  An early look at next weekend shows a pattern plenty capable for renewed wintry “fun and games…”

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/08/busy-times-winter-to-make-a-come-back/

Jan 07

Focus On Saturday Night-Sunday…

We continue to sure up the forecast Saturday night and Sunday.  Most all model data today began to trend southeast with our “follower” system, as expected.  Past experience suggests the…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/07/focus-on-saturday-night-sunday/

Jan 06

The Plot Thickens…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/06/the-plot-thickens/

Jan 05

Tuesday Evening…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/05/tuesday-evening/

Jan 05

Confidence Increasing On Leader-Follower Event; But Details Murky…

A look over model data from overnight suggests we need to focus on a “leader-follower” event for the upcoming weekend.

We’re confident the “leader” player is a rain maker for IN in the Thursday afternoon-Friday time frame (.40-.70 rainfall potential).

Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

As we progress into the second half of the weekend, details get quite murky on the specifics with the secondary (follower) area of low pressure that develops along a pressing arctic front.

As we’ve been discussing, model solutions will vary within each respected model (GFS, Euro, GEM, etc.) in a run-to-run fashion.  Stack them up against one another, and we’ll likely continue to have as many different solutions as we do models that we’re looking at.  It’s a byproduct of a pattern transition and that crashing SOI (which is still crashing this morning, btw).  Case in point, note the various options below for Sunday.

The GFS takes a low from southern AL into the coastal plain of NC. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

The GFS takes a low from southern AL into the coastal plain of NC. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

The Canadian is a blend of the GFS and European as it tracks low pressure from eastern LA into the central Appalachians. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

The Canadian is a blend of the GFS and European as it tracks low pressure from eastern LA into the central Appalachians. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

The European is most aggressive in the west track as it takes low pressure from the MO bootheel into northern IN. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

The European is most aggressive in the west track as it takes low pressure from the MO bootheel into northern IN. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Past experience with similar patterns certainly leads us to lean more towards the European/ Canadian solution over the GFS from this distance.  We know that models have their own biases though.  Time and time again the GFS bias is to rush things along a bit too much from this distance and become too progressive.  On the flip side, the European is notorious for dragging it’s heels a bit and, at times, can be too slow with bringing energy out of the west.  This in return impacts things downstream…

From this distance, we still can’t be too specific with snow/ precipitation prospects Sunday.  While confidence is increasing on at least some sort of snow to contend with, the significance of such isn’t possible to iron out at the moment.  Much fine tuning will be required.  Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/05/confidence-increasing-on-leader-follower-event-but-details-murky/

Jan 04

Monday Evening Update: Significant Arctic Blast Coming…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/04/monday-evening-update-significant-arctic-blast-coming/

Jan 04

Significant Period Of Cold; What About Snow?

The first work week of the new year will feature us looking ahead to a significant period of cold around mid month.  Additionally, we’re still trying to figure out the snow situation.  While we’re not ready to pull the trigger on a southern stream event or high ratio clipper, it’s going to be tough to get out of this cold blast without some sort of snow.  Those details we’ll become clearer as time draws closer.

A word of caution to those who watch operational data and want to iron out specific solutions in the 7-10 day range, you may want to stop (or have the dramamine handy).  When the pattern is in states of major transition, model mayhem can ensue.  Add in a crashing SOI and model output will continue to offer up a variety of solutions from run-to-run.

Screen Shot 2016-01-04 at 7.04.50 AMWhile we’re still not confident on how things unfold from a precipitation perspective in the Sunday-Monday time frame, we’re much more confident on the coming cold.  What’s on the table is a day where we see lows around zero and highs in the lower teens.  (Lay snow down and those numbers will drop lower).

The GFS ensemble is FINALLY coming around to seeing the arctic plunge. Source: Weatherbell.com

The GFS ensemble is FINALLY coming around to seeing the arctic plunge. Source: Weatherbell.com

The European ensemble screams “trouble” with a leader-follower type scenario Sunday-Monday.  We know Friday’s storm system is a rain maker for our area, but does a secondary push of energy lead to renewed storm development cutting through the Ohio Valley early next week?  That’s what we’ll continue to monitor.

Saturday

Sunday

MondayWhat do we know: That a significant period of cold arrives in the 13th-14th time frame.  Depending on the snow situation, temperatures around zero can be expected for lows with highs in the lower teens.

Still trying to sort through the details:  A lot is going on with our weather pattern right now and models will continue to struggle with storm specifics.  Whether we see a southern stream system put us on the table for snow potential, or deal with fast-moving, high ration clipper systems remains unclear at the moment.  Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/04/significant-period-of-cold-what-about-snow/

Jan 03

Snow Showers Arrive Tonight…

Screen Shot 2016-01-03 at 9.45.06 AMHighlights:

  • Increasing clouds; snow showers tonight
  • Calmer mid week
  • Next storm delivers rain late week
  • Significant cold outbreak looms

Cold Shot On Deck; Snow Showers To Develop…Our Sunday is dawning with sunshine across central IN, but we note a low cloud deck sinking south and this will engulf all of the region by afternoon.  Snow showers will begin to fall across the area by tonight and continue into Monday, and this is showing up well on our high resolution forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

MondayAMWe note the best chances of snow showers will favor the eastern half of the state as lake moisture gets involved.  Speaking of that, accumulations of a dusting to an inch will be possible across east-central IN with higher amounts north in the snow belt (3-6″ amounts with a Lake Effect Snow Advisory in effect).  You may want to leave extra travel time for your Monday morning commute.

Our mid week stretch will be dominated by a quiet couple of days as high pressure shifts east and we get into a return (milder) SW flow.

Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Our next storm system approaches late week and will result in increasing cloudiness and showers developing by Friday, continuing into Saturday.

All eyes will then remain locked in on the 11th-13th time frame for potential wintry “mischief.”  There remain many more questions than answers concerning winter storm potential, but confidence continues to increase on a very cold blast of air around, or just before, mid month.  Stay tuned!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/03/snow-showers-arrive-tonight/

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