January 5, 2016 archive

A look over model data from overnight suggests we need to focus on a “leader-follower” event for the upcoming weekend.

We’re confident the “leader” player is a rain maker for IN in the Thursday afternoon-Friday time frame (.40-.70 rainfall potential).

Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

As we progress into the second half of the weekend, details get quite murky on the specifics with the secondary (follower) area of low pressure that develops along a pressing arctic front.

As we’ve been discussing, model solutions will vary within each respected model (GFS, Euro, GEM, etc.) in a run-to-run fashion.  Stack them up against one another, and we’ll likely continue to have as many different solutions as we do models that we’re looking at.  It’s a byproduct of a pattern transition and that crashing SOI (which is still crashing this morning, btw).  Case in point, note the various options below for Sunday.

The GFS takes a low from southern AL into the coastal plain of NC. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

The Canadian is a blend of the GFS and European as it tracks low pressure from eastern LA into the central Appalachians. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

The European is most aggressive in the west track as it takes low pressure from the MO bootheel into northern IN. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Past experience with similar patterns certainly leads us to lean more towards the European/ Canadian solution over the GFS from this distance.  We know that models have their own biases though.  Time and time again the GFS bias is to rush things along a bit too much from this distance and become too progressive.  On the flip side, the European is notorious for dragging it’s heels a bit and, at times, can be too slow with bringing energy out of the west.  This in return impacts things downstream…

From this distance, we still can’t be too specific with snow/ precipitation prospects Sunday.  While confidence is increasing on at least some sort of snow to contend with, the significance of such isn’t possible to iron out at the moment.  Much fine tuning will be required.  Stay tuned.