You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
December 2015 archive
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/30/quiet-cold-pattern-turns-more-active-next-week/
Dec 29
A Word About What Lies Ahead…
No need for model data or fancy graphs with this post, but instead we just wanted to level set with you on where we think we’re heading as we rumble…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/29/a-word-about-what-lies-ahead/
Dec 29
Rambling Around; Only A Couple Days Left In 2015…
December has been a warm and wet month for the region. In fact, it’s been so warm, some have labeled this “October in December.” Snow and ice cover…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/29/rambling-around-only-a-couple-days-left-in-2015/
Dec 28
Strong Winds; More Heavy Rain…
Highlights:
- Strong winds and flood threat continues
- Weak mid week system
- Much colder to open the New Year
Strong Winds And Flood Threat Remains…What an active morning across central IN! Northeast winds are already gusting around 40 MPH with periods of heavy rain this morning. Across our northern tier of counties (mainly north of a line from LAF to KOK) freezing rain and sleet is the issue this morning with temperatures below freezing.
Periods of heavy rain will continue today, and we also note the threat of embedded thunder (damaging wind risk) this evening, bracketed between the hours of 6p-8p.
Image below is courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Temperatures will remain cold and raw through most of the day before we see a late day rally briefly into the lower to middle 50s. It’ll be another day with a tight temperature gradient across the state, as northern IN will struggle to make it much above freezing, while southern IN approaches the upper 60s this evening.
Midnight highs Tuesday can be expected before temperatures crash.
We’ll then set our eyes towards a weak wave of low pressure that looks to deliver a light mixed bag of precipitation Wednesday morning. The freezing line will run through the central part of IN and a mixture of light snow and light rain can be expected. MUCH colder air flows into the state behind this system and sets the stage for a cold open to 2016.
Image below is courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Forecast models continue to show an expected pattern shift to all-out sustained cold and wintry conditions for mid and late winter. Note the W NA ridging developing. Additionally, blocking and a negative AO develop as mid January nears. Think this is the year without a winter? Better think again, my friends.
Image below is courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/28/strong-winds-more-heavy-rain/
Dec 26
Periods Of Heavy Rain…
Saturday will dawn dry across the region, but that will quickly begin to change as morning progresses into afternoon. Moisture is streaming north and a “wavy” frontal system will remain…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/26/periods-of-heavy-rain/
Dec 25
Flooding Concerns…
Highlights:
- Periods of heavy rain
- Tight temperature gradient
- Much colder to open 2016
Very Wet Period Before We Turn Colder…We hope you had a blessed Christmas full of joy, peace, and laughter!
It was a beautiful Christmas across the region, complete with temperatures reaching the 50 degree mark for the first time since 1987! Many would prefer cold and snow (yours truly included), but we couldn’t ask for better weather to get out and enjoy those new gifts from Santa! The countdown to Christmas 2016 begins now. 🙂
The weather will once again turn quite active around these parts as we head into the extended Christmas weekend. Waves of heavy rain will push north Saturday and grow heavy Saturday evening. Periodically heavy rain will continue Sunday. Flooding concerns are present as event rain totals of 3″-5″ should be widespread, with locally heavier amounts.
The other big weather item to note will be the tight temperature gradient from north to south Saturday evening. Note the modeled temperature forecast Saturday night, including temperatures ranging from the lower 40s north to the upper 60s south. Heads up for central IN communities, the cold air will win out Sunday as temperatures fall through the day after an early morning high.
Image below is courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Another push of heavy rain will surge into IN Monday as low pressure tracks northeast into the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of low pressure will form along the Mid Atlantic coast Monday and provide interior portions of the NE an icy/ snowy combo to open the new work week.
Image below is courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
Things will (FINALLY) begin to dry out and chill down as we rumble closer to closing 2015 and welcoming 2016. Though forecast models aren’t seeing much in the way of precipitation with the surge of cold air, don’t be surprised if we deal with scattered snow showers during the Thursday-Friday period as upper energy teams up with the arctic surge.
All-in-all, it’s a step in the right direction for establishing the winter pattern that we think lies ahead, but we caution with a positive AO, things are likely to still be transient over the first 7-10 days of January. Once to mid month, we still believe a sustained shift to colder, more wintry times loom.
Image below is courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/25/flooding-concerns/
Dec 24
Weather Highlights As We Go Into Christmas…
First and foremost, Merry Christmas Eve to all! 🎅🏻 1.) After a busy Wednesday with severe weather and heavy rain across the region, high pressure will build in and provide…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/24/weather-highlights-as-we-go-into-christmas/
Dec 23
Severe Weather & Record Warmth…
A very active weather day is in store for central IN. As we type this (6:30 am), temperatures are hovering around 60 degrees. Simply put, that’s hard to believe. We’re on our way to a record warm day, with highs in the middle 60s across central IN.
The main story, however, will be the severe weather our area may have to deal with in (2) waves this afternoon/ evening.
The Set-up: A short wave trough will eject out of the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region. A surface low and associated cold front will accompany this trough. Unseasonably warm and moist air will spread north this afternoon and evening, including surface dew points in the lower 60s. PWATs (precipitable water values) will exceed 1.25″.
The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Slight Risk of severe for all of the state, including an Enhanced Risk across southern IN.
Timing: We think potentially (2) waves of storms will rumble through the state today. The first likely comes during the early afternoon with a potential second line of storms blowing through the area in direct association with the cold front later this evening/ tonight. Admittedly, it’s tough to pin point the second potential wave of activity until we see what/ how the first round of storms impact the local air mass.
*As always, the forecast radar products we show should not be taken verbatim. These are used for guidance in building our forecast and provide a look at what the radar may look like during a given time frame.
2p forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Impacts: We remain most concerned for the potential of damaging thunderstorm winds, but stress that we can’t rule out a quick spin-up tornado with this type set-up.
Most importantly, have a means of getting the latest weather information today, especially if you’re traveling. Set those weather radios to alert you of any watches or warnings that may come later today.
Looking ahead: We still forecast a significant rain event that will likely lead to flooding early next week. Model data remains very consistent on the potential of 4″-6″ of rain over the upcoming 7-day period. Afterwards, a blast of arctic air looks to invade to welcome in 2016. More on both of these events after we deal with today’s severe.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/23/severe-weather-record-warmth/
Dec 22
Tuesday Evening Video Brief: Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow.
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/22/tuesday-evening-video-brief-severe-weather-possible-tomorrow/
Dec 22
Active Wednesday Only The Beginning….
Rumbles of thunder woke several folks up (yours truly included) during the overnight. This was just a teaser for what lies ahead Wednesday as we continue to think a very…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/22/active-wednesday-only-the-beginning/