Mid and high level cloudiness continue to drift into the state this evening and we note some rain and storms downstate. Across central Indiana, all-in-all it’s a very pleasant evening, including very comfy temperatures and humidity levels for early August.
Model consensus today has been to shift the axis of heavy rain across southern Indiana Wednesday night and Thursday, including some locally heavy totals with flooding possible.
We show the GFS above and we note the European, NAM, and Canadian all agree with the overall idea of heaviest rain across southern Indiana and points south.
Just as we were beginning to get all modeling onboard with the southern shift, the latest high-resolution NAM has shifted back north rather considerably. Note the difference in rainfall totals expected from the high resolution NAM just from the 12z run to the latest 18z run.
No doubt the high resolution NAM is an anomaly, but we also can’t totally discard this solution just yet either based off the longer term projections and relative consistency just a couple days ago. The higher resolution models can handle these type systems better at times so we’ll keep a close eye on things.
Confidence should increase rather dramatically with tonight’s model runs and we’ll be up to watch those trickle in.