February 2015 archive

Feb 23

Busy Winter Weather…

February has been a brutally cold month and there’s no let-up in sight during the upcoming 7-10 days.

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomThe snowpack has expanded over the past few days.

nsm_depth_2015022305_NationalThe arctic air is very hard to move and forecast models can struggle mightily in the mid range when arctic air is involved.  Add in a vast snowpack over the TN Valley and Ohio Valley and I wouldn’t buy full force into the warm, mostly liquid precipitation solutions as depicted by some European and GFS runs as of late.  More on that later.

Arctic air is the story in the short-term along with a gusty wind that will precede very light snow Tuesday afternoon/ evening.

hires_t2m_indy_20

 

hires_ref_indy_29More bitterly cold, arctic air will be with us as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.  Additional records will fall.

Snow may also be with us.  We’re keeping a close eye on a clipper system that could deliver accumulating snow prospects around these parts Wednesday night/ Thursday.  The latest RGEM solution (below) depicts a more easterly track.  We also note the latest GFS delivers light snow in here Wednesday night and Thursday, as well.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

rgem_precip_mslp_mw_17Late weekend into early next week features another complicated and very complex event.  We believe it’s far too early to buy into any one particular solution provided by the various forecast models, but certainly have to “raise an eyebrow” to the mostly wet, warmer solutions.  There’s an awful lot of dense arctic air around and with a widespread snowpack we have to wonder if modeling may be overdoing the warming (where have we seen this before ;-)).

A wavy front may lead to more wintry “mischief” Sunday into early next week.  Again- far too early for specifics, but additional wintry weather is certainly possible.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_29In the longer term, there’s just no let up in sight from the colder than normal conditions.  Sure we may see a couple of days of milder air (we are heading into March, after all), but, as a whole, the majority of the upcoming couple weeks look MUCH colder than normal.

gefs_t2m_mean_conus_d0_7

 

gefs_t2m_mean_conus_d10_15

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/23/busy-winter-weather/

Feb 23

Brutally Cold Week…

Screen Shot 2015-02-23 at 7.30.55 AMBundle Up…A series of arctic highs will build south and result in an absolutely frigid week across a large portion of the country, including here on the home front.  Several cold records will fall this week.

For the most part, we’re looking at a dry week, but a skinny band of light snow may blow through the area Tuesday afternoon/ evening- not a big deal.

Models are struggling on the details with our next storm system.  It’s possible we’ll have to add a wintry mix of rain and snow into your Sunday forecast, but prefer to wait another set of runs before doing so.  Timing and track remain big questions at this point- common from a Day 6+ event.  The GFS and European lean towards a milder, wetter event while the Canadian is colder and more suppressed.  Much more on this later.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/23/brutally-cold-week/

Feb 22

Bitterly Cold Week…

Screen Shot 2015-02-22 at 9.20.31 AMFrigid Times…If you haven’t done so already, we highly recommend cleaning up from yesterday’s snow storm as the bitterly cold conditions moving in this evening will turn any left over slush into concrete.

Most of today will feature dry conditions, but we’ll note scattered flurries and light snow this afternoon as arctic air pours into the region.  Winds will also increase and gust upwards of 20 MPH by evening.  The combination of wind and cold will lead to dangerous wind chill values of 15 to 25 degrees below zero tonight into Monday morning.

Reinforcing arctic air will build into the region with a burst of light snow Tuesday afternoon. This will only help to drive home the point of our title above- a bitterly cold week is upcoming.  Needless to say, we won’t just beat record lows this week, but absolutely smash them.

The next opportunity for a substantial winter event appears to be eyeing us during the upcoming weekend.  We’ll have more on this as time draws closer.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting to 1″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/22/bitterly-cold-week/

Feb 21

Saturday Morning Update

Good snowy Saturday morning, friends! We’re getting reports of 3″-5″ of snow so far across central Indiana from “round 1” of our winter storm.  While heavy snow bursts remain on radar this morning (case in point from Whitestown down to the west side of Indianapolis), the widespread snow has come to a brief end.  Brief is the key word here as widespread snow will overspread most of the region late morning into early afternoon.  An additional 1″-2″ of snow will be a good bet from “round 2.”

Here’s a snap shot of what the radar may look like later this morning- centered on 11a.

hrrr_ref_indy_6As we push deeper into the afternoon, snow should slowly press south and east of our region.  It’ll be important to go ahead and begin the big dig as cold reloads tonight into Sunday and another record cold shot eyes the region early next week.

We’ll have more on your 7-day forecast later today, including another potential winter storm late in the period.  For now, enjoy the snow!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/21/saturday-morning-update/

Feb 20

Winter Storm Video Brief

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/20/winter-storm-video-brief/

Feb 20

Winter Storm Tonight-Saturday

Good morning and happy Friday, friends!  Boy, Old Man Winter is really beginning to turn some minds around from thinking this was an easy winter to one that’s quite impressive, especially from a cold standpoint.  By the way, there’s MUCH more from where this came from!  Essentially we remain on “lock down” for more brutally cold and wintry conditions for the upcoming 7-10 day period.  More on that later.

Here’s a look at our initial snowfall forecast map for tonight and Saturday:

2201522115SnowMapForecast radar shows heavy wet snow encompassing central Indiana Saturday morning:

hires_ref_indy_29Bullet point highlights you need to know:

  • Snow will overspread central Indiana from the southwest between 10p-1a
  • Snow will become heavy at times between 3a-7a
  • Sleet and freezing rain will accumulate significantly downstate
  • Most of the snow will be east of the area by 3p Saturday
  • You’ll want to plow and clean snow up Saturday night as cold air quickly returns Sunday
  • Arctic outbreak next week likely will feature record cold, and colder than this week has been
  • No let-up in sight from this unrelenting winter pattern

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/20/winter-storm-tonight-saturday/

Feb 19

Latest Thinking On Friday Night-Saturday Winter Storm…

Here’s our latest thinking in regards to Friday night and Saturday.

2201522115Snowfall1stCallHighlights:

  • Light snow will likely overspread central Indiana Friday night with precipitation intensity increasing late night into early Saturday.
  • Periods of light to moderate precipitation (location dependent between snow, ice, and rain) will impact the area Saturday, especially through early afternoon. Several inches of snow will be possible in the “mainly snow zone,” and a first call accumulation forecast will be posted Friday morning.
  • You’ll want to shovel and plow any snow and ice Saturday night as temperatures fall Sunday.
  • We’ll welcome in the arctic express yet again next week, including more sub-zero temperatures ahead. In fact, next week may feature colder conditions than our current arctic outbreak, especially if we put a snowpack down across central Indiana.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/19/latest-thinking-on-friday-night-saturday-winter-storm/

Feb 19

Arctic Express Rolling Down The Tracks…

Screen Shot 2015-02-19 at 7.24.59 AMHeavy Cold Weather Gear Needed…It’s a frigid morning across central Indiana with all reporting sites well below zero.  Despite the sunshine today, we’ll only “warm” into the middle single digits- smashing the former record cold maximum of 12 degrees.  Amazing stuff!  Wind chills will remain below zero and downright dangerous.

Eyes shift to a wintry weather maker this weekend and overnight computer guidance has begun to catch onto a much more realistic suppressed, colder solution, as opposed to the warmer and more aggressive storm into the Ohio Valley.  We still have time to watch for additional changes, but for now we think light snow overspreads central Indiana Friday evening, before a bit heavier precipitation moves in late Friday night and Saturday morning.  The “2nd round” of precipitation will likely consist of most of the ice/snow accumulation, including mostly snow across north-central Indiana, a messy mix of sleet and freezing rain across the heart of central Indiana, and a cold rain downstate.  Caution though that this is still preliminary thinking and certainly subject to change.  An early guesstimate on central Indiana snowfall potential with this system would be for a light to borderline moderate event- 2″ to 4″ type deal.

The Arctic Express quickly gains momentum yet again Sunday night and will lead to another frigid week next week.   This pattern is getting to be unbelievable from both the sustained cold, but the extreme nature of the cold, as well.  Put this into perspective, only three days of the above forecast period feature high temperatures close to, or slightly warmer, than our average low.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 2″ – 4″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/19/arctic-express-rolling-down-the-tracks/

Feb 18

Dangerous Cold; Weekend Talk…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/18/dangerous-cold-weekend-talk/

Feb 18

Dangerously Cold; Still Watching The Weekend…

Arctic air just continues to pour into the region and if you’ve been paying attention, each arctic air mass has been colder than the previous. The upcoming couple of days…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/18/dangerously-cold-still-watching-the-weekend/

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