January 2015 archive

Early Morning Freezing Rain For Some; Watching Sunday-Monday…

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Slick Spots For Some; Accumulating Late Weekend Snow?  A fast-moving disturbance will move through the region during the overnight/ wee morning hours and provide light rain for most of central Indiana, but areas just north of the city will deal with an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain (be watchful of slick spots if traveling north Tuesday morning).  Sunshine will make a quick return and “work” on our temperatures to help boost afternoon highs into the middle 40s (once again :-))!  Another fast-moving weather maker will arrive late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with mixed light rain and light snow.  Again, light is the key word.

Colder, but drier weather will build in for the midweek stretch.  The next weather item on the agenda will be a more vigorous clipper system that will slide southeast and result in increasing cloudiness Saturday night into Sunday morning followed by snow overspreading the region Sunday morning.  Accumulating snow is possible Sunday afternoon into Monday morning and will require fine tuning in the days ahead.  Precise track of the clipper system will determine where little, if any, snow falls and potentially several inches.  Stay tuned.  Regardless of the snow potential over the weekend, the stage is set for a MUCH colder time of things next week…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.20″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″ – 3″

Longtime viewer and friend of IndyWx.com, Rick Ehrhardt, sent this fantastic Monday evening sunset from the Avon area.  Thanks, Rick!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/19/early-morning-freezing-rain-for-some-watching-sunday-monday/

Fast-Moving Weak Weather Systems…

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Challenging Northwest Flow…A series of fairly weak weather systems will scoot through the region through the first half of the week.  Each disturbance will be capable of depositing a quick round of light precipitation.  Timing will be the biggest issue at hand with the first couple weak disturbances.  We’ll forecast light rain (perhaps a wet snow flake or two) tonight into the wee morning hours Tuesday and again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

A drier stretch of weather will arrive for the second half of the work week and early portions of the weekend.  We target Sunday evening as the next opportunity for accumulating snow followed by a push of colder air.  As of now, week 2 is looking unseasonably cold after seasonable to above average temperatures this week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.30″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 2″ – 3″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/19/fast-moving-weak-weather-systems/

A Word On The Longer Range; Steady As She Goes…

We wanted to touch briefly on the longer range weather pattern as we’ve been answering questions this weekend out there concerning what lies ahead. Ultimately, the good Lord above is the only one who knows tomorrow and this idea we have very well may be the wrong one. However; we still see a lot of winter in this weather pattern. The combination of below average snowfall to date, combined with milder air the past 24 hours has led some winter lovers into a panic. Despite the past 24 hours, let’s remember where we are for the month of January through the first half:

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Now let’s compare this to the infamous January 2014:

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So far, this January the cold is more widespread across the nation. Additionally, through the first half of January, IND is actually running colder than last January. Many remember the brutal cold following the major winter storm early last January. Let’s also remember that a few days after that snow and cold we were dealing with much milder air and rain- a bonafide January thaw.

That brings us back to the present and our current January thaw. Looking back through the record books indicate even the coldest Januarys on record have “thaws.” What’s perhaps more impressive is that the end of this year’s thaw appears to be seen really before it even begins.

There are so many different drivers trying to take the wheel this winter it, admittedly, makes for an incredibly challenging time of things forecasting. That said, should we see the “stars align” (negative AO, negative NAO, positive PNA) in the coming weeks, this is the type scenario that could carry winter deep into spring.

In the shorter term, as of now we see no reason to abandon the idea the cold reloads to close January and open February. It’s possible that some weather outlets lean heavily on particular model runs and base their mid to long range forecast accordingly. While we agree you have to supplement some of that data into your mid and long range forecast, this is the type pattern than can make for risky business putting all the eggs in one basket.  (We also suggest any outlets leaning solely on operational and ensemble output are in need for a serious dose of dramamine). Instead, we prefer a blend of the above with the foundation being a combination of a nearly ideal SST profile for wintry times continuing and big-hitter analogs. It must also be noted that we have to keep the current AO/ PNA state in the back of our mind.

Speaking of those teleconnections… The current AO and PNA leave a lot to be desired for winter lovers in the longer range:

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That said, it should be noted the first two weeks of January cold was in the face of teleconnections that screamed of a warm pattern and a MJO phase that was also mild.

Perhaps the bigger driver here is the surface temperature profile in the PAC and ATL. Also note the modoki El Niño.

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That warmer water sitting across the northeast Pacific Ocean promotes ridging into the PAC NW and AK.  In return the upper level winds tap available arctic air and send it southeast (see the first two weeks of January).

In the mid range, ensemble data is bullish on this aforementioned pattern returning after the very brief January thaw.

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The sensible weather that should result the upcoming 10-12 days?  An active pattern and one that’s very challenging with that northwest flow (we’ll be on clipper watch), biased colder than average.  In fact, the GFS ensembles aren’t too shy about eastern cold week 2.

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Let’s watch things unfold in the coming couple of weeks.  Make it a great day and GO COLTS!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/18/a-word-on-the-longer-range-steady-as-she-goes/

Touching Base Saturday Afternoon…

Quick video update this afternoon to touch base.  Enjoy this amazing weather!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/17/touching-base-saturday-afternoon/

Friday Morning Thoughts…

I’m blessed to have family in town this weekend so posts will be a bit off schedule the next few days, but keep it tuned here as they will come!

What a remarkable January this is as temperatures are averaging more than 9 degrees (fahrenheit) below average AND COLDER than last January.  While I know snow lovers are wanting more snow (yours truly included), one has to sit back and really appreciate the pattern for what it is from a cold standpoint.  I would go as far as to argue this pattern is actually more impressive than last January as the cold has come in the face of what’s been a much less impressive snow pack (for the most part).

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Despite a brief “relaxation” now, models suggest the cold comes on like gangbusters yet again to wrap up the month.  Given where we’ve been and what appears to lie ahead, it would seem as if this January will be even colder than last January- not only through the first half, but at month’s end.  It’ll be fascinating to watch unfold.

Speaking of snow, I still believe this is the type pattern that can “flip on a dime” in the snow department.  The sea surface temperature profile and analogs at least suggest we’re on the playing field for a stormy ride through the month of February and even into March this year.  Does it mean it has to be a snowy pattern?  No, but at this distance it’s at least nice knowing we’re on the field with a chance to win the game.

In the shorter term, a windy “mild up” will occur Saturday as highs reach the middle to upper 40s with a gusty southwest wind in play.  Winds will top 30-40 MPH so you’ll definitely want to “batten down the hatches” Saturday.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/16/friday-morning-thoughts/

Quiet Weather For Now….

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Moderation Continues; Windy Saturday…A weak frontal boundary will slip through the state this afternoon/ evening and could offer up a snow flurry.  Otherwise it’s a rather uneventful forecast until Saturday when we introduce a gusty southwesterly wind (up to 30 MPH).  The bright side of that southwesterly breeze will be that temperatures will reach the middle 40s.

The milder air will be very brief as a cold front moves through Saturday night and provides snow shower potential as early as Sunday morning.  We should remain dry for the better part of the first half of next week, but we’ll be keeping a close watch for a potential winter storm brewing the middle to latter portions of next week…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: Trace
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting – 1″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/15/quiet-weather-for-now/

Relatively Quiet Now, But It Won’t Last Long…

Enjoy our relatively quiet and briefly milder weather pattern as mid and long range guidance suggests we reload the cold with authority and associated wintry precipitation threats…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/14/relatively-quiet-now-but-it-wont-last-long/

Bitterly Cold Start, But Moderation On The Way…

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“Relaxation” Of The Bitterly Cold Pattern…That forecast package title sure wouldn’t suffice describing the weather outside this morning.  It’s a downright bitter feel, including below zero temperatures throughout north-central Indiana.  Patchy freezing fog and scattered flurries are also with us this morning.  With some sunshine later, we’ll “warm” into the lower 20s this afternoon.  A few flurries may fly tonight as a weak disturbance moves through the region.

Sunshine will be with us to wrap up the work week along with slowly moderating temperatures.  Average highs this time of the year are in the middle 30s so we’ll be closer to average Thursday and Friday- though it’ll likely feel much warmer simply based off just how cold it’s been as of late.  Gusty southwest winds will blow milder air in here briefly Saturday as temperatures climb into the middle 40s.

A cold front will sweep the state Sunday morning with a possible rain shower that’ll quickly transition to scattered snow showers as the colder air filters back into the region.  The next storm system of note arrives early next week.

Upcoming 7-day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.20″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/14/bitterly-cold-start-but-moderation-on-the-way/

Looking Ahead…

January is off to a colder than average start across a large portion of the country, including the Hoosier state:

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomThe snow and ice pack has expanded over the past couple of weeks in rather significant fashion:

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Two storm systems have offered up busy times over the Ohio Valley the past week. Note liquid equivalent numbers the past (7) days- most significant over central Indiana.  Most of this has been in the form of wintry precipitation (snow and ice).

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A weak weather system may offer up light snow chances mid week.  The high resolution NAM and European print off light snow while other models “see” us mainly dry mid week.

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The other big story in the short term will be more bitterly cold arctic air (single digits tonight and close to zero Wednesday morning).

While we’ll certainly “warm” compared to the freezer we’ve been in the first two weeks of January, sneaky arctic highs remain on the field and will put a dent in the air masses from reaching unseasonably mild levels for any length of time this weekend and Week 2.  See Friday’s GFS output and the sneaky arctic high north:

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The next significant storm system brews around the 20th (give or take a day, or two) and could offer up rain or a more wintry option.  Keep a close eye on the period 01.20 – 01.23.

Thereafter, the arctic hounds likely come calling again as the period quickly returns to “lock and load” cold late January into February.  The European and GFS ensembles both show a rebuilding blocking AK ridge and suggest arctic air floods the country yet again as cross-polar flow gets involved:

GFSensembleslateJan

It’s all part of a package that should be the beginning of a colder than average and stormy mid and late winter stretch.  Sea surface temperature anomalies are a textbook setup for a very wintry time of things for our neck of the woods.  Note the Modoki El Nino and warm waters sitting off the PAC NW- both cold/ stormy indicators here:

SSTLateWinterSetUp

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/12/looking-ahead/

Turning Colder; Icy Mix To Light Snow Before Ending…

Greatest ice accumulations set up from Indianapolis and points north last night and this morning.  Glaze reached just under one quarter inch here across southern Boone County.

The icy mixture will transition to light snow before ending mid morning.

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Temperatures will also be sliding backwards through the day.  Morning highs in the lower 30s will fall into the 20s this afternoon.

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The big push of arctic air arrives tonight into Tuesday and sets the stage for widespread sub-zero lows Wednesday morning.  Wind chills will, of course, be even colder (10 to 20 below zero).

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We’ll be back later tonight to talk about what lies ahead in the longer term.  Stay safe out there!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/12/turning-colder-icy-mix-to-light-snow-before-ending/

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