January 27, 2015 archive

Forecast models have been printing out wintry solutions for the upcoming weekend- particularly Saturday night through Super Bowl Sunday.

The GFS 500mb charts between 12z Monday and this morning show the key with this potential storm.  Note the difference between yesterday (top) and today (bottom).  The GFS model brings more energy out and the result is a stronger storm system.

Timing between cold and moisture associated with storm systems has been the important missing link this winter with bigger storms.  Does that trend continue this weekend?  Snow lovers hope not…

A key ingredient that has been missing in the past is a big area of high pressure north of the region supplying cold air as surface low pressure tracks in a favorable position for wintry precipitation.  Models do suggest not only renewed arctic high pressure building down the Plains region Sunday into Monday, but also a 1040mb high over the northern Lakes region.  This would help go a long way in keeping cold air flowing into the region.

What about the sensible weather here?!  Keeping in mind that this is still an event 5 days out…..  The GFS model suggests mostly a snow event north-central, but also brings in a wintry mix of icy precipitation and rain across the southern half of the state.  The Canadian forecast model (not shown here) is more suppressed and leads to an accumulating weekend snow event across the region and targets southern portions of the state for heaviest snowfall.  The European model is the most “ideal” scenario for central Indiana snow lovers and leads to a significant snow event across the heart of the state.

Note the European forecast model track a wave of low pressure in an ideal location for heavy snow across central Indiana before intensifying and hammering the Northeast region.

We’ll continue to keep a close eye on this developing situation. Stay tuned….