January 2015 archive

Crippling Snow Storm For Some; Just Wet For Others.

An incredibly difficult and challenging forecast is in store for central Indiana over the course of the next 24-36 hours.  I want to get out front with this right from the get go: bust potential is high with this type set-up, as a jog 10-20 miles north or south of the surface low will mean the difference between half a foot of snow and plain cold rain.  As it stands now, and after careful consideration of every piece of data available, here’s our updated snowfall map:

SnowfallMap2115V2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I still am not sure any one piece of data is handling the interaction between the arctic high to the north and the developing low to our southwest “perfectly.”  As such, additional fine tuning will have to take place tonight.  That arctic high is powerful at nearly 1045mb.  From a meteorological standpoint, it’ll be a fascinating battle watching the fight play out.

As you can see, we’re going to be looking at a very tight thermal gradient and it, unfortunately, appears to set itself up directly over the I-70 corridor.  Precipitation type and amounts are the biggest challenge within the I-70 corridor.  Further north, confidence increases rather significantly for a crippling snow storm.  For central Indiana, this will be a very wet and heavy snow event before ending as a drier, powdery snow on the back end.  As winds increase Sunday afternoon/ evening, the heavy “paste” like snow won’t blow around as easily as it would if it was drier.  Further north the snow consistency will be drier and blowing and drifting will be severe (in the 8″-12″+ zone).

In the shorter-term, rain and a wintry mix will arrive into the region as early as early as 6-7 o’clock.

Stay tuned.  Another post will hit here late tonight (midnight-ish).  In the meantime, we’ll keep our thoughts coming at @indywx through the afternoon.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/31/crippling-snow-storm-for-some-just-wet-for-others/

Saturday Morning Rambles

Overnight model data remains very much out of agreement with one another concerning Sunday. The struggle continues trying to figure out the precise track of the low and the influence…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/31/saturday-morning-rambles-4/

Weekend Snow Storm…

Screen Shot 2015-01-30 at 7.10.35 AMWeekend Snow Storm On Deck…Scattered snow flurries and snow showers will come to an end this morning with increasing sunshine following.  Despite seeing a little vitamin D this afternoon, it won’t do anything to help us in the temperature department.  In fact, we already experienced our high around midnight.  Temperatures this afternoon will remain in the middle to upper 20s with a gusty wind.

Most of Saturday will be quiet (calm before the storm) with dry conditions and afternoon highs around 40.  Clouds will lower and thicken as we go through the afternoon and evening and snow will develop (rain or a wintry mix down state initially) across central Indiana during the overnight.  Snow will increase in intensity Sunday morning and grow heavy at times during the day as low pressure tracks along the Ohio River (a classic track for central Indiana snow storms).  See our initial accumulation map below, which is still subject to change.  We’ll introduce a gusty east and northeast wind into the mix Sunday evening and night and this will lead to blowing and drifting snow Sunday night.  Stay tuned.

The big story next week will be the cold, but we’re also watching two potential snow makers, as well.  More on that after we deal with Sunday’s snow storm.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 5″ – 10″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: Trace

2115SnowfallMap

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/30/weekend-snow-storm/

Late Night Update: Snow Storm Brewing…

Early forecast model data into the office tonight suggests we remain on track for a disruptive widespread snow storm this weekend. We note the timing is speeding up just a…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/29/late-night-update-snow-storm-brewing/

Weekend Snow Storm On Deck And A Word On February…

First, enough energy needed out of the SW is going to come out and lead to a widespread snow storm from the central Plains through the Ohio Valley.  Here on the…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/29/weekend-snow-storm-on-deck-and-a-word-on-february/

Weekend Snow Storm Brewing?

Forecast models for the most part have been much more aligned with this upcoming event, with the exception of a couple runs on Wednesday. Overnight and this morning modeling is…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/29/weekend-snow-storm-brewing/

Wednesday Evening Thoughts…

Quick video update on our thinking tonight, as well as a look at the weekend…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/28/wednesday-evening-thoughts-2/

Now This Is More Like It…

Screen Shot 2015-01-28 at 7.30.19 AMMaking Up For Lost Time…Many snow lovers out there have been disappointed by the lack of the white stuff winter to date.  The cool thing is that the next 7-10 days (most likely longer) will offer up multiple opportunities to serve up accumulating snow.

First things first and that’s today- look for bright sunshine and a frosty start.  Temperatures will “warm” to just under seasonal levels this afternoon.  A fast moving storm system will scoot through here late tonight and Thursday morning with light rain, possibly transitioning to light snow showers before precipitation ends Tuesday (not a big deal).  Far eastern areas may experience a brief period of light freezing rain or light sleet during the onset of precipitation, but things should switch over to light rain rather rapidly even for you.  We’ll turn dry and cold to wrap up the work week.

All eyes are on the weekend as a storm system moves towards the region.  We have a ways to go and we’ll have to fine tune the details over the next few days, but this has potential to be the most widespread significant wintry event of the season.  Stay tuned.  MUCH colder air will punch in here early next week and may set the stage for more wintry “mischief” by the middle of next week.

ISRlogo2-280x121IU at Purdue: 9p tonight

Good news is that for those driving to West Lafayette tonight, you should be dealing with dry conditions.  Precipitation chances will begin to go up as we near 11p, or after, for western portions of the state.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 3″ – 6″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/28/now-this-is-more-like-it-2/

Weekend Thoughts…

The video goes into the detail around our weekend thoughts.  Is a winter storm brewing?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/27/weekend-thoughts/

Keeping An Eye On The Weekend…

Forecast models have been printing out wintry solutions for the upcoming weekend- particularly Saturday night through Super Bowl Sunday.

The GFS 500mb charts between 12z Monday and this morning show the key with this potential storm.  Note the difference between yesterday (top) and today (bottom).  The GFS model brings more energy out and the result is a stronger storm system.

SunGFS5001

 

GFSSun5002Timing between cold and moisture associated with storm systems has been the important missing link this winter with bigger storms.  Does that trend continue this weekend?  Snow lovers hope not…

A key ingredient that has been missing in the past is a big area of high pressure north of the region supplying cold air as surface low pressure tracks in a favorable position for wintry precipitation.  Models do suggest not only renewed arctic high pressure building down the Plains region Sunday into Monday, but also a 1040mb high over the northern Lakes region.  This would help go a long way in keeping cold air flowing into the region.

What about the sensible weather here?!  Keeping in mind that this is still an event 5 days out…..  The GFS model suggests mostly a snow event north-central, but also brings in a wintry mix of icy precipitation and rain across the southern half of the state.  The Canadian forecast model (not shown here) is more suppressed and leads to an accumulating weekend snow event across the region and targets southern portions of the state for heaviest snowfall.  The European model is the most “ideal” scenario for central Indiana snow lovers and leads to a significant snow event across the heart of the state.

Note the European forecast model track a wave of low pressure in an ideal location for heavy snow across central Indiana before intensifying and hammering the Northeast region.

ecm_mslp_east_7

 

ecm_mslp_east_8

We’ll continue to keep a close eye on this developing situation. Stay tuned….

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/27/keeping-an-eye-on-the-weekend/

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