December 2014 archive

Colder Air Moving In…

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Mixed Rain/ Snow Showers…Colder air will pour into the region on gusty north and northeast winds through the early week stretch.  Left over moisture will produce scattered mixed rain and snow showers Tuesday, particularly during the morning.

Cold Mid Week…Dry, but cold conditions can be expected through the middle and latter portion of the work week.  Temperatures will run below average, but at least we’ll enjoy a little vitamin D!

Milder Air Coming…Our air flow will shift around to the southwest over the weekend into early next week and this will help promote much milder times- at least for a brief period of time.  We caution though that a much different look (and feel) awaits by the middle and latter part of next week and this will likely set the stage for a cold end to December, including Christmas.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.20″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/08/colder-air-moving-in/

Sunday Morning Rambles…

1.) It’s nice to see the sun for once.  While we’ll still have mid and high level cloudiness to deal with later today, we’ll gladly take what we can get of the good ole vitamin D this time of the year!

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2.) Rain over the Thursday-Friday period followed along very closely to what modeling suggested.  Heaviest rains fell central and south.

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3.) A cold front will move through Monday evening with a few showers, gusty winds, and set up a cold week, overall.

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4.) In the long range, we continue to really like the looks of things from a winter weather lover’s point of view.  Undercutting jet supplying storm potential, arctic intrusion, and a blocky look… Details will have to be sorted through as time draws closer, but from this perspective, the pattern continues to look like it’s heading towards one capable of widespread colder than normal air and winter storm potential Christmas week.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/07/sunday-morning-rambles-3/

Blustery And Cold Day…

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Half & Half Weekend…After a wet Friday today will begin a drier theme that will continue through the weekend.  Despite the overall drier regime, don’t expect much in the way of sunshine today.  Instead we’ll deal with considerable cloudiness, patchy drizzle, and blustery winds shifting around to the northwest.  We’ll introduce more in the way of sunshine into your Sunday forecast with high temperatures a few degrees below the average high of 42.

Early Week Cold Front…A frontal boundary will move through the region Monday and could have a couple showers as it blows through the state.  Colder air will move in behind the front for mid week and may be accompanied by a few flurries or a scattered snow shower Tuesday.

Dry Ending…Indications at this point are that we’ll enjoy dry conditions to wrap up the work week along with slowly moderating temperatures.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.25″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/06/blustery-and-cold-day/

Wet Stretch Ahead…

First, be sure and scroll down to the next post (from Thursday night) on our long range thinking. We’re focusing on a wet 24 hours ahead, Hoosiers. Rain will build…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/05/wet-stretch-ahead/

Short-term Cold; Mid-range Warm…

There’s been a ton of conversation as of late about where this overall weather pattern is heading.  Perhaps it’s the Christmas season that brings out the conversation as everyone is hoping for that cold pattern to provide a White Christmas.

While in the short-term cold will continue to dominate, we’re becoming increasingly confident of an unseasonably mild stretch of air in the mid-range period.  That’ll take us up to the week before Christmas…

In the short-term, the positive PNA will continue to be the primary driver in our pattern.  This will ensure a colder east through the majority of week 1 (through next Friday).

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A positive PNA pattern typically leads to below normal heights (trough) and associated cooler than normal pattern across the eastern region.

A positive PNA pattern typically leads to below normal heights (trough) and associated cooler than normal pattern across the eastern region.

Modeling sees the cool east in week 1 and warm west- typical of a positive PNA pattern:

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There are changes in the mid-range period that’ll have lovers of winter and cold frowning.  Many of our long-term readers know how we use the “typhoon rule” as a good indication of what we can expect across our region 6-10 days down the road.  As stated multiple times in the past (want to give credit where credit is due), we learned this from the great Joe Bastardi.  For those that are new here, I’ll describe this very briefly (you can read through the archives, if you’d like, for a longer/ more detailed description).  Typically when you have a recurving typhoon in the WPAC, that suggests a trough (colder pattern) across the central and eastern Lower 48.  On the flip side, when you have a westward moving typhoon, that’s a good indication of eastern ridging (warmer pattern).

Courtesy of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Super Typhoon Hagupit is forecast to move on a general westward trajectory.

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This is a very good sign of a much milder than normal period in the mid-range (days 8-12).  Modeling, in return, is going towards a warm pattern (associated ridge) week 2:

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The GFS ensembles and NAEFS agree on the warmth and given what we’ve discussed above, so do we:

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In fact, it wouldn’t surprise us to see high temperatures in the 55-60 degree range during a day or two week 2.

Really quick and before we end- lovers of winter weather, there’s absolutely NO reason to throw in the towel.  In fact, indications in the long range suggest the trough collapses into the east during the week leading up to Christmas and that could provide for all sorts of wintry “mischief” when almost all of folks are wanting snow…

Much more on that in the days ahead.  Have a great night!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/04/short-term-cold-mid-range-warm/

Thursday Morning Rambles…

A wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain continues to advance slowly northeast this morning. Thankfully, most of the rush hour should be over by the time any of this wintry precipitation arrives and we have a couple things going for us this morning: 1.) Drier air is giving this precipitation a tough time advancing northeast and 2.) by the time the precipitation arrives, temperatures will be marginal for many road problems, if any.  By far the more concerning issues are off to the southwest of Indianapolis, including places like Terre Haute (where moderate snow was reported at 9am).

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The HRRR slowly pushes the wintry mix along the I-70 corridor this morning.

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Attention then turns to a heavy rain event Friday into Saturday morning. Widespread 1-2″ amounts are expected.

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Forecast radar shows periods of heavy rain overnight Friday into Saturday morning.

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Much more this evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/04/thursday-morning-rambles/

Another Bout Of Rush Hour Wintry Mix; Longer Range Talk…

We think we’re dealing with another round of light freezing drizzle and a wintry mix for the Thursday morning commute.  Plan to allow extra travel time.

Forecast radar Thursday morning suggests freezing drizzle and a light wintry mix is in play across central Indiana.

Forecast radar Thursday morning suggests freezing drizzle and a light wintry mix is in play across central Indiana.

There’s some longer term data that’s in stark contrast from what a positive PNA should produce (yet alone a strong positive PNA).  Typical positive PNA pattern should promote an eastern trough and associated colder than normal pattern as drawn below:

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Needless to say, we disagree strongly with the NAEFS and GFS ensembles:

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Regardless, the future will tell!  

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/03/another-bout-of-rush-hour-wintry-mix-longer-range-talk/

Hoping For Afternoon Sunshine; Tricky Thursday Morning…

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Watch For Slick Spots This Morning…A light wintry mix of freezing drizzle, snow, and sleet fell across central Indiana during the overnight.  Most roads have been treated, but still leave extra time to reach your destination and travel safely.  We think we’ll get rid of the low clouds, fog, and pesky light wintry precipitation during the afternoon and introduce at least a look or two of sun into your forecast!  It’ll be a chilly day as highs struggle to reach 40.

Tricky Thursday…Another fast moving disturbance will deliver light precipitation to central Indiana as early as Thursday morning.  With temperatures below freezing during the onset of precipitation, much of this may fall in the “frozen” or “freezing” form.  We’re concerned about light freezing rain and light sleet arriving during the morning commute Thursday and we’ll fine tune timing and precipitation type with tonight’s update.  Temperatures should slowly “warm” above freezing during the afternoon switching wintry precipitation over to just plain ole rain.  Stay tuned.

Wet Open To The Weekend…This morning’s model data is in much better agreement in regards to our wet weather maker slated for the opening to the weekend.  A slug of widespread moderate to heavy rain will push in here Friday and continue into early Saturday.  We think the back half of Saturday will feature drier air moving into the region which will set up a dry, but cold Sunday.

Cold Push Early Next Week…We’re siding with the colder solution early next week for now.  We forecast a cold front to blow through the area Monday afternoon with a quick shower possible (not a big deal).  Tuesday will feature colder northwest breezes and a scattered snow shower, or two.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.00″ – 1.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting to less than 1″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/03/hoping-for-afternoon-sunshine/

Tuesday Evening Video Update

We cover rain chances later this week and some of the conflicting data that’s currently out there regarding amounts.  We’ll post a more extensive piece about the longer range later…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/02/tuesday-evening-video-update-3/

Tuesday Morning Wintry Mix….

Our high resolution models continue to be rather aggressive on the idea of a wintry mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain falling across central Indiana Tuesday morning. The HRRR…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/01/tuesday-morning-wintry-mix/

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