December 3, 2014 archive

Another Bout Of Rush Hour Wintry Mix; Longer Range Talk…

We think we’re dealing with another round of light freezing drizzle and a wintry mix for the Thursday morning commute.  Plan to allow extra travel time.

Forecast radar Thursday morning suggests freezing drizzle and a light wintry mix is in play across central Indiana.

Forecast radar Thursday morning suggests freezing drizzle and a light wintry mix is in play across central Indiana.

There’s some longer term data that’s in stark contrast from what a positive PNA should produce (yet alone a strong positive PNA).  Typical positive PNA pattern should promote an eastern trough and associated colder than normal pattern as drawn below:

PositivePNA

Needless to say, we disagree strongly with the NAEFS and GFS ensembles:

2014120312_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186

Regardless, the future will tell!  

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/03/another-bout-of-rush-hour-wintry-mix-longer-range-talk/

Hoping For Afternoon Sunshine; Tricky Thursday Morning…

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Watch For Slick Spots This Morning…A light wintry mix of freezing drizzle, snow, and sleet fell across central Indiana during the overnight.  Most roads have been treated, but still leave extra time to reach your destination and travel safely.  We think we’ll get rid of the low clouds, fog, and pesky light wintry precipitation during the afternoon and introduce at least a look or two of sun into your forecast!  It’ll be a chilly day as highs struggle to reach 40.

Tricky Thursday…Another fast moving disturbance will deliver light precipitation to central Indiana as early as Thursday morning.  With temperatures below freezing during the onset of precipitation, much of this may fall in the “frozen” or “freezing” form.  We’re concerned about light freezing rain and light sleet arriving during the morning commute Thursday and we’ll fine tune timing and precipitation type with tonight’s update.  Temperatures should slowly “warm” above freezing during the afternoon switching wintry precipitation over to just plain ole rain.  Stay tuned.

Wet Open To The Weekend…This morning’s model data is in much better agreement in regards to our wet weather maker slated for the opening to the weekend.  A slug of widespread moderate to heavy rain will push in here Friday and continue into early Saturday.  We think the back half of Saturday will feature drier air moving into the region which will set up a dry, but cold Sunday.

Cold Push Early Next Week…We’re siding with the colder solution early next week for now.  We forecast a cold front to blow through the area Monday afternoon with a quick shower possible (not a big deal).  Tuesday will feature colder northwest breezes and a scattered snow shower, or two.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.00″ – 1.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting to less than 1″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/03/hoping-for-afternoon-sunshine/

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