Dec 31
Many across the Lower 48 are running MUCH colder than average this morning. Take a look a temperature departures from normal this morning: Mind you this is in the face…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/31/brrrrr-cold-pattern-continues/
Dec 30
Quick couple updates this evening:
Virtually all of today’s model data has jumped on a stronger storm system for the weekend as opposed to a flatter wave. This leads to a more northwest track and would imply more “wet than white” for local precipitation types for the weekend. One important difference between this upcoming event and those of recent past is that arctic air is now on the playing field and this can create all sorts of “havoc” in mid range modeling. We’ll keep a close eye on things.
The other HUGE item of business we want to get across is the prolonged and rather impressive cold pattern. A series of arctic highs will come down the Plains and spread southeast the upcoming 7-10 days. Despite a potential brief spike in temperatures Saturday, it’s a MUCH colder than normal pattern. Eventually, we’ll have to closely monitor the potential of a couple of snow-producing clipper systems. Sometimes these can be overachievers, depending on track and intensity and one of two clippers next week may be just that…
More later! Have a great evening!
Jet Stream Forecast: New Year’s Day 2015
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/30/tuesday-evening-cold-pattern/
Dec 30
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Fresh Arctic Air…Arctic air is on the move this morning and will result in a bitterly cold close to 2014. This arctic air may be accompanied by a snow flurry or scattered snow shower later this afternoon (especially across northeast and east-central Indiana). The bigger story will be the bitter feel to the air as wind chills fall to around zero tonight and Wednesday morning.
Dry, but frigid conditions remain New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. If you plan on ringing 2015 in downtown Wednesday night, be sure to be prepared for the cold and dress warmly!
Weekend Storm System…We continue to track a storm system for the weekend, but more questions than answers remain on precise track and timing and will have a huge impact on precipitation types and amounts. For now we forecast a wintry “potpourri” of rain, sleet, and snow Friday night into Saturday, tapering to backlash flurries Sunday. Stay tuned.
Eyes On Clippers…Indications are that we may get into a rather busy clipper pattern next week. The first of possibly two clippers may deliver snow Monday night into Tuesday. Cold weather continues.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/30/arctic-air-on-the-move/
Dec 29
This evening we take a look at fresh arctic air pouring southeast and click through the various midrange model solutions for the weekend storm system.
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/29/monday-evening-video-update-5/
Dec 29
Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. 20/ 35 22/ 29 14/ 22 18/ 31 22/ 32 25/ 34 31/ 37 Highlights: Freezing For For Some This Morning Sunny And Very Cold Weather To Close…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/29/morning-freezing-fog-in-spots-sunny-and-cold/
Dec 28
After a cold November, December has been a mild month across the country:
Our headache of a Christmas Eve storm delivered wet weather and this was followed by another wet weather maker (that ended as a wintry mix across central Indiana) yesterday:
Lower 48 Snowpack isn’t impressive considering the time of year:
As we move forward, colder times are ahead to wrap up 2014. Note the latest GFS ensembles showing a one-two punch of cold in the coming couple of weeks. Also note the initially warmer Southeast region- courtesy of that negative PNA. 1st image is Day 1-6, 2nd image is Day 6-11, and the 3rd image is Day 11-16.
The GFS ensembles suggests the cold eventually overwhelms the pattern in the face of a mostly negative PNA that slowly begins to trend positive:
Remember a negative PNA typically would provide a milder southeast this time of year:
The AO, or Arctic Oscillation, has shown a tendency to want to go negative- a cold signal (note the control run off the charts negative):
The European model is suggesting we have a true direct discharge of arctic air in the mid range pattern (left) while the GFS isn’t as bullish on the cold. We’ll likely have to put down a snowpack to achieve the cold the European is suggesting Days 8-10 (below zero). Needless to say, we’ll keep a close eye on things.
The last few days of 2014 will be relatively quiet, and colder than normal. The next storm system of significance awaits for Friday and Saturday. Modeling ranges anywhere from mostly a rain event to more of a significant winter storm. Case in point, let’s just compare the GFS (TOP- milder and less snow) and GFS Upgrade (BOTTOM- colder and more snow). While we can’t show it here, the European model is more of a blend and also delivers accumulating snow. Again, another big fight coming (and you thought you wanted to have this job ;-))?!
In the longer term, the MJO suggests we’re heading back into a milder pattern for mid January as it takes us into Phase 5. Caution though as the MJO forecasts have been erratic as of late, as well. (Click on the images to enlarge if needed).
Bottom line: Our short term confidence is very high on a dry and colder than normal stretch of weather through Day 5. By Day 6 confidence begins to decrease as a wide range of solutions can be argued for and against concerning the storm system next week. We appear set to go into a highly volatile weather pattern through the mid and longer range. Many of our long range teleconnections contradict one another leading to a lower than normal confidence in the longer range.
All of that said, one key ingredient that’s been missing over the past few weeks is arctic air getting involved with the pattern. As stated above, that’s not the case any longer (thanks to this blocking ridge over AK):
Modeling can struggle in handling true arctic air and, as such, wild swings can take place with mid and long range guidance. We caution against this in advance. With so many different signals out there, anticipate a very stormy (not necessarily saying this has to mean snowy) pattern over the next 2-3 weeks.
Thank you, as always, for your support. If you, or your business, can benefit from more detailed weather discussions and updates, send us an e-mail to learn of additional weather consulting services we offer. Additionally, if you don’t already, be sure to follow us on Twitter- @indywx.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/28/sunday-morning-where-weve-been-and-where-were-going/
Dec 27
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Highlights:
Showers Around…The first round of light rain moved through central Indiana during the early morning hours and has now pushed into extreme eastern portions of the state and into Ohio. While low clouds and areas of fog will remain, we should be dry through a large portion of the late morning into the early afternoon. Showers will then redevelop later this afternoon and tonight as a cold front draws closer. We’re not looking at any sort of heavy rain and temperatures will be mild for this time of year.
Colder Air Pushes In To Close 2014…A cold front will move through the area early Sunday. Cold air may help change light rain to a light wintry mix/ snow flurries before coming to an end Sunday morning. The bigger story will be a much colder air mass that will push south and lead to a cold close to 2014 (fitting, considering the year as a whole has been colder than normal). Unfortunately for snow lovers out there we won’t have any moisture around to lead to snowy times.
Storm System Brews Late Next Week…A significant storm system is on the charts by Friday, but we want to be very clear when we say that the range of model solutions varies from a warmer and mostly wet event to one that’s much colder and primarily a winter storm. Which solution is correct? That’s virtually impossible to say at this point. One could actually argue for and against the wide range of possibilities with some of the pattern developments and teleconnections as of late. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/27/damp-at-times-today-colder-air-coming/
Dec 26
I hope this finds you coming off a blessed Christmas spent with family and friends! As you venture out this morning know that several reports of slick spots have come…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/26/catching-up-on-friday/
Dec 24
Most importantly, from our family to yours, here’s wishing you a very Merry Christmas. We can’t tell you how much your support and friendship means to us and it’s been a true pleasure and honor getting to know some of our loyal viewers over the past year. Here’s to a fun and exciting year ahead of tracking weather across central Indiana!
Thankfully the storm that’s been a true headache over the last week is almost outta’ here (good riddance)! It’ll leave some sleet and scattered snow showers tonight as colder air works in, but, unfortunately, it’s not going to be a white Christmas this year.
Forecast radar during the overnight shows scattered snow showers across central Indiana, but marginally cold air and relatively warm ground temperatures will prevent much, if any, accumulation:
We’ll have new challenges ahead in the weather department, but we’ll tackle those later tomorrow. Enjoy your Christmas Eve and thank you again for your support of IndyWx.com! Merry Christmas!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/24/merry-christmas-from-our-family-to-yours/
Dec 24
In what’s been an agonizing 6-7 days it’s only fitting that this will come down to the very end. Model performance has been poor, at best, concerning our Christmas Eve storm and given many forecasters a gray hair or two (yours truly included).
We’re going to lay out our best thinking below, but I want to be very clear when I say that we’re in a “now cast” mode for the rest of the day. It’ll be particularly important to have a means of gathering the latest weather information if you have travel plans later today.
Overnight model data shifted the track of a developing surface low east. After looking over all of the available data, we now have converged on a surface low track that moves northeast from west Tennessee into northwest Ohio. The surface low will strengthen as it moves northeast, helping wrap cold air into the system and change rain to a wet snow across central Indiana this afternoon and evening.
The tricky part comes into play when we get into the details. Banding features and associated precipitation rates will be key in determining when local communities see a transition to wet snow and ultimately how much accumulates. This won’t be a “uniform” type accumulation event. Dynamics with this system are impressive, despite only marginally cold air. If we get into a situation where heavier banding develops it won’t take long to cool the entire column of air and result in localized moderate to heavy snow.
On the flip side, surface temperatures are mild after a day yesterday into the middle 50s. Add in the fact stated above of only marginally cold air available and precipitation intensity will be key. If precipitation isn’t heavy enough, it’ll be tough for much snow to fall, yet alone accumulate.
Bottom Line:
As stated above, this is a now cast scenario through the rest of your Christmas Eve. Given all of the data we’ve looked at, this is how we see things playing out this evening:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/24/detailed-christmas-eve-breakdown/