November 2014 archive

Nov 15

Snow Chances And Gearing Up For Even Colder Air…

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Two Weekend Snow Events…The morning is off to a sunny, frosty, and frigid start with middle teens for many central Indiana communities.  Mid and high level cloudiness will stream into the region through the afternoon before lowering and thickening towards evening.  An area of light snow will then overspread central Indiana towards 6-7 o’clock.  This won’t be a huge snow event, but a dusting to less than 1″ will fall, especially along and north of the I-70 corridor.  This will be just enough to make for slick travel in places as you head out to church Sunday morning.

The second snow maker will be the more significant one.  Upper level energy will dive south out of the Plains states tonight and help ignite surface low pressure over the lower Mississippi River Valley Sunday morning.  This area of low pressure will then lift northeast and track up along the western slope of the Appalachians into Monday morning.  This will spread accumulating snows northeast into our region as early as Sunday evening, continuing overnight into the wee morning hours Monday.  Our initial snowfall forecast (posted below) places most of central Indiana in a 2-4″ swath of snow from this event, but we caution this still isn’t etched in stone.

Fresh arctic air will pour into the Mid West and Ohio Valley region Monday evening into Tuesday…  That Tuesday morning expected low isn’t a typo, BTW :-).

Bitter Feel And Periods Of Snow Showers…Waves of upper level energy will dive southeast and serve to provide two things: reinforce the cold/ arctic air and provide periods of snow showers.  Gusty northwest winds will also accompany the waves of cold air.  All-in-all, plan on a wintry week ahead!

Questions Concerning Late Next Week…Forecast models are struggling on the details, but we still think a storm system will deliver the chance of snow or a wintry mix of rain and snow late next week.  Details to come in the days ahead.

Snowfall Forecast Sunday evening into Monday morning

SnowfallMap111514

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 3″ – 5″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/15/snow-chances-and-gearing-up-for-even-colder-air/

Nov 14

50/50 Split On Sunday Night Snow…

Quick-hitting Bullet Points:

  • Light snow Saturday night
  • Still questions around Sunday night snow potential
  • Even colder air invades early next week
  • Fun and games continue in the longer range

The afternoon model suite is in in it’s entirety and it leaves us with about as many questions as answers :-)…

Four of our more trusted short-term forecast models are split 50/50 on the outcome Sunday night.  In the snowy camp you have the NAM and European.  In the drier camp you have the GFS and GEM.  Past experience with this type event says the European and NAM solutions may have the better handle and we think the drier modeling will shift a touch northwest with time over the upcoming 24 hours.  The difference between camps would be a nice 2-3″ type snowfall for the Monday morning commute across central Indiana versus nothing more than a few flurries.  More as the details become clearer…

We still forecast light snow to overspread central Indiana Saturday evening and night.  While this won’t be a big deal, a dusting to 1″ of snow is a good bet across most of central Indiana, especially from the I-70 corridor and points north.  Roads may be slick in spots on your way to church Sunday morning.

One thing that’s a certainty is that another blast of arctic air will invade along with scattered snow showers early next week.  This push of bitter air will be even colder than this weeks.

In the longer term, plenty of wintry “fun and games” remain.  In fact, today’s 12z European has the look set to offer more meteorological headaches come late next week.  Ah, the season is only beginning… 🙂

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/14/5050-split-on-sunday-night-snow/

Nov 14

Cold, But Sunny Close To The Week…

Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr.               17/ 32 22/ 34 24/ 37 19/ 29 16/ 23 14/ 34 21/ 38  Sunny, But…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/14/cold-but-sunny-close-to-the-week/

Nov 13

Mid November Or Mid January?!

Snow showers continue to track down the I-65 corridor this evening. Don’t be surprised of a quick dusting of snow for portions of Boone County over the next hour. Short…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/13/mid-november-or-mid-january/

Nov 12

Bitter Cold For November; Complicated Weekend…

Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed.               26/ 32 22/ 32 24/ 35 25/ 35 21/ 32 13/ 26 12/ 32  Wintry Feel…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/12/3033/

Nov 12

Upcoming Snow Chances…

Good morning and happy Wednesday! Just a quick post this morning, before a more extensive forecast update later tonight. We’re still eyeing the chances of snow in the short term.…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/12/upcoming-snow-chances/

Nov 11

Turning Much Colder; Eyeing Snow Chances…

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Arctic Front Moves In…The arctic cold front will slice through the state later this afternoon. Showers will precede the front, but we’re not talking about any sort of heavy rainfall. Blustery southwest winds this morning will shift to the northwest and drive in the much colder, arctic, air this afternoon and evening with falling temperatures.

Cold Stretch…Temperatures will remain well below normal for the foreseeable future.  Instead of November, it’ll feel more like January!  Sunshine Wednesday will give way to scattered snow showers Thursday as upper dynamics act upon reinforcing arctic air.  We’re back to dry skies to wrap up the work week.

Weekend Snow…We continue to monitor the chance of light snow developing Saturday night into Sunday as reinforcing arctic air blows in.  For now we’ll forecast partly cloudy skies Saturday giving way to increasing evening clouds and developing light snow during the overnight into Sunday.  We’ll fine tune in the days ahead.

Looking ahead, a “bigger” wintry event may loom the middle of next week…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.25″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/11/turning-much-colder-eyeing-snow-chances/

Nov 10

More On The Impressively Cold/ Snowy Pattern…

The more and more I look into the mid and long range data, the more impressed I become with what’s ahead.  We’ve been hitting the drum since Halloween on the…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/10/more-on-the-impressively-cold-snowy-pattern/

Nov 10

Enjoy Today; Arctic Front Coming

Our long advertised arctic cold front will slide in Tuesday evening. That said, try and let us worry about the cold, wintry details ahead and you enjoy today’s relatively mild…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/10/enjoy-today-arctic-front-coming/

Nov 08

Impressive Cold And Wintry Pattern…

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Chilly Sunshine For The 2nd Half Of The Weekend…We’ll enjoy sunshine as we progress through the second half of the weekend. While we’ll remain colder than normal (average high is in the lower/ middle 50s), it won’t be nearly as cold as what’s in store moving forward this week.  The early November sunshine should help lead to a relatively nice day- just grab the jacket!

Briefly Milder Southwesterly Air Flow…We’ll be under the influence of a southwesterly air flow Monday out ahead of an approaching arctic cold front. Though it’ll be mild and the day will feature sunshine, anticipate a strong southwest wind developing by the afternoon.

Arctic Slide…Our long advertised arctic cold front will push through the region Tuesday evening. Out ahead of the front, showers and gusty winds can be expected. Temperatures will begin the downward spiral Tuesday night leading to a frigid and true winter feel for the remainder of the work week- some 20 degrees + below average!  Stock up the wood pile and plan to bring the heavier winter gear out as both will be needed.

Wintry Event In The Cards…Our mid range computer models continue to hint at the first true accumulating snow event potentially in our future next weekend. As for now we’ll note increasingly cloudy skies Saturday and introduce light snow into the forecast Saturday night. We caution there’s still a long way to go and much fine tuning will have to be done between now and then.  That said, the pattern is loaded and will result in lots of wintry “fun and games” in the weeks ahead.  If you’re a winter fan, this is the pattern for you.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.25″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/08/impressive-cold-and-wintry-pattern/

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