October 2014 archive

Oct 11

Cool Autumn Weekend; Severe Storm Potential Monday Night…

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Cool Autumn Weekend…The rest of today will feature mid and high level cloudiness, but dry conditions.  Cool north to northeast winds will blow and require jackets or sweaters if venturing outside for too long of a time.

Be sure to enjoy the brief dry weather Saturday as shower chances return as early as Sunday, particularly during the afternoon hours and on.  Moisture will begin to surge back north in advance of a storm system that will lead to some rough weather around these parts to open the new work week.

Monday Severe Potential…Gusty southwest winds will usher in a warmer and more humid feel of things Monday out ahead of our next strong storm system.  We continue to closely monitor the potential of severe weather Monday night into Tuesday morning and want to highlight the threat of damaging straight line wind potential embedded with a possible squall line.  Beforehand, showers and embedded thunder will be possible during the daytime Monday.

We note the GFS remains consistent on strong to severe storm potential Monday night into Tuesday morning while the European is more delayed (suggesting more of a threat during the day time Tuesday).  For now, we’re leaning more towards the GFS and we’ll have more on the early week severe threat Sunday.  Locally heavy rain is also a good bet during this time, including widespread 1″-1.5″, with locally heavier totals.

Taking The More Optimistic Approach…Some forecast data wants to keep considerable cloudiness and pesky light showers around into the mid week period, but for now we’re still going with the more optimistic outlook and including drier weather along with cooler temperatures for the balance of the upcoming work week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1-2″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
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We continue to highlight Monday night/ Tuesday morning for the potential of severe weather, including damaging straight line winds. Here’s what the high resolution NAM simulated radar suggests at 8p Monday local time.

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/11/cool-autumn-weekend-severe-storm-potential-monday-night/

Oct 10

IndySportsReport.com High School Football Forecast: Rain For Some…

A stalled frontal boundary is draped over central portions of the state this morning and an area of low pressure will move east along the front today. High pressure to…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/10/indysportsreport-com-high-school-football-forecast-rain-for-some/

Oct 09

Carefully Watching Monday Night/ Tuesday For Storm Potential…

While rain and chilly air are the headlines as we wrap up the work week and open another important college football weekend (my anticipation is building rapidly for my beloved Tigers taking on a dangerous MS. State squad Saturday afternoon- WAR EAGLE, btw), our attention is continuing to focus in on the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday morning across the region.

Forecast models continue to suggest strengthening low pressure will track northeast from MO into IL and MI Monday night into Tuesday morning.

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The region will briefly get into a warm and humid environment Monday and Monday night (plenty capable of fueling strong to severe thunderstorm development).  Temperatures in the 70s will combine with dew points in the low to mid 60s.

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A ribbon of precipitable water values will approach 2″ across the state Monday night.  This supports heavy and locally flash flood producing rainfall.  Forecast models continue to key on additional Monday-Tuesday rainfall in the 1-2″+ range.

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We’ll continue to closely monitor the data as we move forward, but at this early juncture, make a mental note to be weather-aware Monday night into Tuesday morning as strong to severe thunderstorm potential develops.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/09/carefully-watching-monday-night-tuesday-for-storm-potential/

Oct 09

Not The Best Of Weather To Close The Work Week…

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Not “Chamber Of Commerce” Weather…A frontal boundary will slip through the region this evening before stalling just south of Indianapolis.  An area of low pressure will move along the front Friday while chilly Canadian high pressure to our north tries to suppress things.  The battle ground will lie across central portions of the Ohio Valley.  Pack the rain gear and the cool weather attire.

Today, anticipate showers and rather gloomy conditions.  We’re not anticipating any sort of heavy rainfall across the region, but instead mostly light rain with embedded pockets of moderate rainfall.  Another push of rain will move into town Friday.  Heaviest rainfall should primarily fall along the I-70 corridor and points south Friday.  Total rainfall from today and Friday should range from 0.25″ to 0.50″ with some heavier totals possible downstate.

Not A Bad Weekend…We’ll likely get some dry time in this weekend as the region remains in between weather systems over the Saturday-Sunday period.  After a mainly dry Saturday, rain chances return Sunday.

Bigger Storm Early Next Week…A rather robust storm system will impact the region Monday night into Tuesday with heavy rain potential and the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms.  We’ll keep a close eye on things as we move through the weekend and update the forecast accordingly.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2.00″ – 3.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″ 

John Salewicz took this stellar photo of the lunar eclipse Wednesday morning.  Thanks, John!

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Our forecast radar products show another slug of moisture aimed at a Friday AM arrival.

Our forecast radar products show another slug of moisture aimed at a Friday AM arrival.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/09/not-the-best-of-weather-to-close-the-work-week/

Oct 08

Rainy Friday Or No?

Thursday will feature showers and unseasonably cool air. All in all, it won’t be a chamber of commerce day around these parts. Pack the rain gear and jacket! What’s up…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/08/rainy-friday-or-no/

Oct 08

Nice Today; Wet, Chilly Thursday On Deck…

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Much Needed Sunshine…After several days of wet, gloomy weather, sunshine will be a welcome sight to see!  Today is easily the pick of the week with dry skies and mild temperatures.  Enjoy!

Wet; Chilly End To The Work Week…A cold front will sink south into the area Thursday and rain will move into the state as early as the predawn hours Thursday morning.  Temperatures will actually fall Thursday afternoon and evening.  While there’s some “model mayhem” in regards to what takes place Friday, we’re currently leaning more towards the GFS/ NAM wet solution with a secondary wave of low pressure moving along the frontal boundary. Stay tuned.

Not A Bad Weekend…We’ll have to dodge a couple rain drops over the weekend (particularly Sunday), but it won’t be a wash-out by any means.  A chilly Saturday will slowly moderate Sunday.

Heavy Rain Event…Forecast models continue to key in on a heavy rain event impacting these parts Monday night into Tuesday of next week.  More details to come, but plan on the possibility of excessive rains across a large chunk of the Mid West and Ohio Valley at this early juncture.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2.50″ – 3.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Hopefully you were up early enough this morning to enjoy the lunar eclipse!  The first image is from the Brownsburg area and taken from Ronna Jessen.  Thank you, Ronna!  I also added an image taken off our back deck at 6:30 this morning.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/08/nice-today-wet-chilly-thursday-on-deck/

Oct 07

Tuesday Morning Rambles…

1.) We posted our weekly outlook last night and this can be found below.  An active weather pattern continues.  2.) A cold front will move through the region later this evening. As a result, showers and embedded thunder will be around into the afternoon hours before drier, cooler air builds in tonight behind the front.  Forecast radar shows rain and embedded storm chances continuing into the afternoon:

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3.) Wednesday looks like the pick of the week with plentiful sunshine and pleasantly cool temperatures.  4.) Rain and storm chances return as early as Thursday into Friday.  5.) Friday stands to be quite an ugly day with rain chances and a new push of unseasonably chilly air.  A big thermal fight will be in place Friday as portions of northern Indiana don’t make it out of the 40s while temperatures across far southern areas of the state go into the 70s.  More specific to our region, look for falling daytime temperatures starting in the upper 50s.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/07/tuesday-morning-rambles/

Oct 06

Weekly Outlook: Active And Cool!

Another active period of weather is in store for the region. (After an extended stretch of pleasant conditions from late September into the opening of October, I guess we shouldn’t complain too much).

Dry days will be at a premium over the course of the upcoming 7-days.  The final in a series of disturbances in the fast northwest flow will blow through the region Tuesday.  This will offer up a threat of scattered showers and a possible rumble of thunder through the daytime hours. Latest forecast radar data suggests showers and embedded thunder will be ongoing Tuesday morning.

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After a dry day Wednesday (filled with lots of sunshine), we anticipate clouds and rain to quickly return as early as Thursday.  Forecast models handle the evolution of things differently at this juncture. For now, we’ll side with a blend of the GFS and Euro and serve up best rain chances late Thursday into Friday, followed by less concentration of rain Saturday, coupled with cool north winds.

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Saturday is a tough call at this point.  The cold front will be south of our area and chilly Canadian high pressure will be building in, but we may keep considerable cloudiness and pesky showers around (similar to last Saturday?). Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune.

Note the cooler than normal air settling in over the weekend.

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7-day rainfall numbers vary greatly from model to model.  Upcoming weekly rainfall totals range from as little as 1″ to as much as 2″.  The Canadian model is the most aggressive, suggesting over 2″ on a widespread basis.

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Just beyond this time next week we may be looking at an even more significant storm system, but we still have time to fine tune things as we move forward.

Despite the dry weather late September through October’s open, the past 30 days have featured beneficial to excessive Corn Belt rainfall…

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Year-to-date has featured a wet eastern region.  Also note the dry pattern across the southwest (some places under 1″ YTD)!  Officially, we’re just slightly wetter than normal at IND, year-to-date (+0.53″).

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Thinking longer term towards the darker, colder, and snowier months ahead… The JAMSTEC remains “bullish” on a regime plenty capable of delivering the cold and snowy “goods” for the region…  BTW- we usually post our annual winter outlook the first Friday of October.  Things have been very hectic as of late and we’re going to have to delay this release by a few weeks….

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/06/weekly-outlook-active-and-cool/

Oct 06

Unsettled And Cool…

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Cool And Gray Open To The Work Week…A couple disturbances will cross through the region between today and Tuesday. This will help lead to considerable cloudiness and off and on showers through the next 24-36 hours.  We’re not talking about heavy rainfall, but pesky showers, mostly cloudy skies, and unseasonably cool conditions will be in place.

Mid Week Sunshine Ahead Of The Next Front…High pressure will briefly build into the region Wednesday helping supply a brighter and slightly milder regime.  Enjoy whatever sunshine we do see Wednesday as clouds and rain will quickly return as we wrap up the work week (some indications are we could be looking at heavier rain late week, so stay tuned).

Another Cool Weekend…Another cool air mass will build into central Indiana for the weekend. While timing issues abound, we currently forecast dry skies Saturday with showers around Sunday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Jason Burton sent in this amazing sunrise shot taken in Union City.  Thanks for another great photo, Jason!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/06/unsettled-and-cool/

Oct 05

Chilly; Scattered Showers Highlight Your Colts Forecast

Colts v. Ravens Forecast Prepared For:

The Indiana Sports Report

10.05.14

Happy game day Colts fans!  A weak disturbance will cross the state later this evening.  As a result, mostly cloudy skies are forecast today along with the possibility of a few light showers this afternoon into the evening.  Temperatures will continue much cooler than normal so plan on packing the jackets and sweaters for that important tailgate.  Visit IndyWx.com for “Indy’s Behind The Scenes Weather!”

Tailgate Weather

Kickoff Weather

Heading Home
Mostly cloudy Mostly cloudy Mostly cloudy; scattered showers
Temp: 45-55 Temp: 55-57 Temp:  57-60
Wind:  SW 10-20 MPH Wind: SW 15-20 MPH Wind:  SW 15-20 MPH
Precip: 0.00” Precip: 0.00” Precip:  0.10”

 

Light showers will impact portions of the region later this afternoon.

Light showers will impact portions of the region later this afternoon.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/05/chilly-scattered-showers-highlight-your-colts-forecast/

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