May 2014 archive
The morning is dawning pleasant and quiet, but things appear to get quite noisy and active around these parts later this afternoon. A cold front will slice into the warm and humid air mass in place across the region and thunderstorms will erupt in rather explosive fashion as early as the early to mid afternoon hours. Damaging straight line winds and large hail are of greatest concern.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlights the region for an enhanced risk of large and destructive hail this afternoon.
Here’s a look at what the simulated forecast radar may resemble this afternoon, as always, courtesy of Weatherbell Analytics:
Forecast Radar 1pm
Forecast Radar 4pm
Forecast radar 5pm
Forecast radar 7pm
Now it’s important to note not everyone will see destructive severe weather (as is usually the case with any severe weather outbreak), but signals point towards the possibility of a rather significant and large scale severe hail event across central and southern portions of the state this afternoon and evening. It’ll be very important to stay tuned to your favorite media and certainly heed all warnings that come out this afternoon.
We’ll clear things out nicely later tonight and Thursday and set the stage for an absolute beauty of a holiday and race weekend. We forecast bright, sunny skies each day along with cool temperatures that slowly warm to the upper 70s for race day, itself. We’ll introduce the next threat of storms for Memorial Day amidst bubbling true summer heat and humidity for next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/21/damaging-hail-threat-looms-for-central-southern-indiana-this-afternoon/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Hail, NAM Model, Race Weekend, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos, Windy
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May 20, 2014
The region remains under fire for severe weather potential, primarily for damaging straight line wind and hail per latest thinking. The video uncovers when you can expect this and looks ahead to the all-important Memorial Day and Indianapolis 500 weekend!
The region is under fire for severe potential Wednesday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/20/severe-weather-video-brief-tonight-wednesday/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Hail, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Windy
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May 20, 2014
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The daytime hours into the evening will be very pleasant today- mostly sunny to partly cloudy, warm, and breezy! A windy warm-up is underway as temperatures are running 17 degrees warmer than 8 o’clock Monday morning. Highs both today and Wednesday will approach 80. We’re eyeing a couple rounds of thunderstorms in our future- late tonight/ early Wednesday and then again Wednesday afternoon. That said, we caution bust potential is high and while a slight risk of severe weather is up for the region for both potential thunderstorm complexes, conditions are far from a “lock.” We’re confident portions of the Ohio Valley will deal with a couple rounds of severe thunderstorms, but there’s the chance the first wave of severe weather is across far eastern portions of the state and targeting more of Ohio and there’s also the chance that round two Wednesday is mostly across downstate Indiana. We’ll keep an eye on things and update later this evening. Regardless, large hail and damaging winds will be of greatest concern. Stay tuned for further updates this evening. Rainfall potential is around half an inch tonight through Wednesday, with locally heavier downpours. As we move forward, we’re very confident on a glorious late week stretch and Memorial Day weekend- lots of sunshine and very pleasant temperatures! A warm front will introduce a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm Monday afternoon, along with a much hotter, more humid feel.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/20/eyeing-storms-wednesday-beauty-of-a-weekend-on-deck/
Happy Monday! Here’s hoping everyone had a great weekend! The week ahead will feature a much warmer, muggier regime as early as Tuesday. Rain chances will increase Wednesday night into Thursday (early indications are for around half an inch of rain). We’ll then (thankfully) dry things out and introduce a very pleasant air mass heading into the all-important Memorial Day and Race weekend. We’ll have a full 7-day forecast posted here later this evening. Make it a great Monday!
Southerly winds will transport 80 degree type air and a more humid feel by Tuesday and Wednesday.
A cold front will deliver best rain chances of the week Wednesday night into Thursday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/19/catching-up-on-a-monday-morning/
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“Improvement” will be the weather word of the weekend, but it’s going to take a couple of slow baby steps before we see full-blown improvement (we think that comes Sunday)! Today will feature more sunshine than Friday, but with plenty of cold air aloft, it won’t take long for that May sun to do it’s dirty work and help showers bubble up this afternoon. While some small hail will be possible with the showers, hail reports won’t be nearly as widespread as what we saw Friday. Temperatures will remain well below normal. We finally think we can shake shower chances Sunday and introduce a partly cloudy sky. Early next week looks dry, as well, until a warm front lifts north Tuesday. This will introduce a much warmer, muggy brand of air to central Indiana and allow for the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms for mid and late week. A weak frontal boundary will slip south Thursday into Friday which will knock temperatures back a few degrees to wrap up the work week. Rainfall amounts through the period will remain rather light, but some local downpours are possible in the muggy air mass mid week.
Forecast radar valid at 2p today shows scattered showers developing.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/17/slow-improvements/
Good morning and happy Friday, Hoosiers! The region will remain under the influence of a swirling upper level low as we put a wrap on the work week. This will keep chilly, unsettled weather in our forecast. Temperatures will remain below normal through the weekend, though begin to moderate from the ridiculously chilly readings of late week.
We’re dealing with showers around the area now, but showers will intensify this afternoon and with all of the cold air aloft could easily produce small hail. Here’s a look at forecast radar early this afternoon- 2pm.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlights the region for the possibility of small hail.
The other huge story will be the very cold temperatures tonight into Saturday. In fact, we wouldn’t be surprised to hear reports of light frost in outlying areas Saturday morning with forecast lows in the mid 30s! Sunshine will increase as we progress through the weekend and temperatures will respond, albeit slowly! We’ll take what we can get!
- Friday: Mostly cloudy, scattered showers and thunderstorms (some stronger storms could produce small hail), 41/55
- Saturday: Cold start to the day! Increasing sunshine, still a possible light shower, 35/59
- Sunday: Partly cloudy and nice! 38/64
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/16/weekend-look-hail-producing-showers-storms-this-afternoon/
Many central Indiana neighborhoods are still in the 40s as of this update. Officially, the high so far today at IND has reached 50 and is more than 20 degrees below where we should be for this date.
The upper low continues to swirl over Iowa this afternoon and will help push a band of showers into central Indiana during the wee morning hours Friday. Additionally, the threat is there that a couple of the stronger showers Friday afternoon include some small hail with added instability and the very cold air aloft.
As we look ahead to the second half of May, don’t be surprised by a repeat performance in this weather pattern. We think brief ridging will be responsible for highs above the 80 degree mark the middle of next week, but the stage may be set for another stretch of unseasonably cool air to wrap up the month…. Additional details can be found in the video!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/15/thursday-evening-update-repeat-in-the-pattern-coming-to-end-may/
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We’re locked into a cloudy, raw, and wet weather pattern and there’s no let up until later into the upcoming weekend. A big upper low is positioned across Iowa this morning and will remain the primary driver in our weather here through Saturday. Unseasonably chilly conditions, gusty northwest winds, and periods of drizzle and rain can be expected through the period. We’ll finally begin to shake the clouds and rain, but unseasonably cool air will linger into early next week. As for the pick of the weekend, it still easily appears to be Sunday, with mostly dry conditions, increased sunshine, and moderating temperatures. An additional one half to three quarters of an inch of rain will be possible between today and Saturday. Warmer times are ahead early next week as a warm front blows through the area with a possible shower or storm Tuesday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/15/raw-and-chilly/
The remainder of the work week will feature plenty of rain and well below normal temperatures.
A surface wave will move up along a cold front today into Thursday and be responsible for widespread rain, some of which will be heavy, across central Indiana. Additionally, severe thunderstorms, including possible quick spin-up tornadoes, will be possible across far eastern Indiana and Ohio this afternoon and evening.
Note the forecast radar stays rather busy in the hours ahead!
Area additional rainfall total will reach between 1-2″ between this morning and Friday afternoon.
The other big story is the chill. Temperatures are drastically cooler this morning than what we’ve gotten used to the past several days, and the step down process will continue. We still think most of Thursday is spent in the 40s.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/14/promised-wet-chilly-pattern-here/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, NAM Model, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Videos
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May 13, 2014
Note how dramatic of a temperature shift is occurring to our west- temperatures are down more than 30 degrees from this same time last night.
That cool air will filter into our region tonight and Wednesday. As a matter of fact, we still think Thursday has the potential to remain in the 40s for the better part of the day. The video below has more details on this and a look ahead to continued rainy times.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/13/tuesday-evening-video-brief-the-cool-down-is-on/
