March 10, 2014 archive

Forecast Updated 03.10.14 @ 7:55a

Windy Warm Up…A weak weather system will scoot north of IND this morning, but may be close enough to push a couple of very light showers into our northern suburbs during the mid to late morning period.  We note the latest HRRR model does just that.  Precipitation amounts, if any, north of the city will be very light and not much more than a trace. Otherwise the big story today will be a gusty southwest wind and much warmer temperatures. We think highs zero in on the 60 degree mark by this afternoon as southwest winds gust over 30 MPH.

This then sets the stage for a “chamber of commerce” weather day Tuesday with lots of sunshine and temperatures in the lower 60s.

Wintry Trouble Brewing…We continue to monitor the “goings on” for an accumulating snow event in here on Wednesday.  Low pressure will scoot across southern portions of the state Wednesday morning and help spread what will initially be rain into the region during the wee morning hours.  As the low deepens heading east it’ll tap much colder air looming just north of our area and result in a transition from rain to snow Wednesday morning from north to south.  A heavy, wet snow is likely to fall during the mid to late morning hours before ending.  The other aspect of this system will be a very stiff northeast wind and this will lead to blowing and drifting problems for some. Our expected snowfall accumulation idea ranges from 2-5″ of heavy, wet snow north of the city with 2″, or less, anticipated for the city and points south.  We’ll fine tune these amounts later, but feel our initial idea remains a good one this morning.

Thursday will return to the dry theme though much colder than what the early week period was.

Questions Heading Into Next Weekend…Forecast models are having difficulty handling what’s going to be a very active northwest flow regime later in the weekend into the following week.  We’re concerned at least one of the systems diving in from Canada has the chance to phase with the southern stream and crank out another snow event for the Ohio Valley during the time frame mentioned above, but we’re not confident on which system this will be just yet.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

• 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 2-5″
• 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″

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