March 2014 archive

Mar 27

Busy Pattern…

A busy weather pattern will keep us on our toes with two storm systems of note between now and Saturday.

Periods of showers will keep most of today wet.  While it won’t rain the entire time, periods of moderate to heavy showers are possible today.  A quick punch of milder air will arrive this afternoon after a chilly start to the day, combined with a strengthening south wind.  Total rainfall today and tonight should average half an inch, or less.

Highs today will reach the lower 50s, despite the showers.

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Latest simulated radar data shows the potential of a line of thunderstorms moving through here late tonight, directly associated with the cold front.  A strong storm is possible along with gusty winds as the front slides through early Friday morning.

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As if all of this wasn’t enough, another storm system will arrive Saturday.  This system will have a wintry component to it, with the chance of a stripe of wet snow along the northern shield of precipitation.  It’ll require our attention as we move forward.  March storms have been known to have a surprise or two and it’s our job to try and help eliminate any of these surprises.

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Mar 25

Active Pattern…

Wed.

Thr.

Fri.

Sat.

Sun.

Mon.

Tue.

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17/ 40

30/ 50

39/ 52

32/ 39

28/ 56

39/ 62

31/ 49

– – –

Light

Light

Moderate

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Light

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Forecast updated 03.25.14 @ 7:30a

Brighter Mid Week. . .After a cold and snowy Tuesday, sunshine returns today and will help temperatures get a boost…somewhat.  Average high temperatures are in the upper 50s this time of the year and we’ll struggle to eclipse the 40 degree mark today.  That said, we’ll concentrate on the improvement from Tuesday.  Additionally, we’ll notice a strengthening southwesterly breeze during the afternoon, including gusts that may top 20 MPH.

Late Week Storm System. . .Low pressure will lift out of the Plains and into the Great Lakes Thursday. A warm front will lift north through our area early Thursday morning and will be accompanied by a quick burst of rain (potentially mixed with wet snow during the onset).  Finally, a cold front will drive through here late Thursday night into early Friday with shower chances continuing until the front passes.

Busy Times Continue This Weekend; Tricky Storm. . .While we may see some sunshine Friday afternoon, clouds will quickly build back in Friday night and rain will overspread the region, continuing into Saturday.  Rainfall may be heavy at times Saturday morning.

The early consensus of the track of Saturday’s low combined with marginal temperatures, does at least raise an eye brow that some wet snow could be in play for portions of central and east-central Indiana Saturday morning into the afternoon and we’ll monitor this.  Again, while temperatures will be marginal, at best, heavy precipitation rates will stand the chance for a band of heavy wet snow along the northern periphery of the precipitation.

Another Fast Moving Storm. . .After a drier Sunday (and milder), clouds return Sunday night and scattered showers are possible Monday as yet another cold front swings through the region.  Moisture will be limited with this front so rainfall amounts should be light.  Tuesday looks drier and colder.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1″ – 1.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast:  Less than 1″

twicFor weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/active-pattern/

Mar 25

Snow Showers Today; Arctic Cold Continues For Now.

We’re waking up to snow showers and embedded quick-hitting heavier squalls.  The latest HRRR simulated radar shows snow showers continuing through the morning into the early afternoon hours across central Indiana.  A quick coating to less than an inch is possible in spots.

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Even though we’re in to late March and average highs should be in the middle 50s now, temperatures will struggle to reach freezing early this afternoon.  Yes, this is considered officially “ridiculously cold” in IndyWx.com terms :-).

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Lows tonight will dip into the teens for many as we clear things out.  This will be 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

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Mar 24

Out Of Season Cold…

Mon.

Tue.

Wed.

Thr.

Fri.

Sat.

Sun.

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18/ 37

25/ 33

19/ 40

34/ 42

39/ 58

37/ 46

28/ 60

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Light

– – –

Light

Light

– – –

– – –

Forecast updated 03.24.14 @ 12:00a

Unseasonably Cold And Tracking Snow. . .It sure won’t feel like late March around these parts to kick off the new work week. Instead, we’ll deal with a biting north wind and temperatures more comparable to January.  Needless to say, certainly plan to grab the coat on the way out the door.

As we move into the evening hours clouds will begin to increase and light snow and scattered snow showers will arrive tonight into Tuesday morning.  This won’t be a big deal and we’re still anticipating little, if any, accumulation for most (perhaps up to half an inch in localized spots).  All the same, for a region that’s been brutally cold and snowy for month on end, this probably won’t be a welcome with “arms wide open” type of forecast.

South Winds Deliver Warmer Air. . .A gusty southwest wind will blow milder air north into the region Thursday. Along with the milder air will come moisture and we forecast showers to develop Thursday with a potential thunderstorm Thursday night into Friday morning as a cold front slides through the region.

Nice Weekend. . .Though Saturday will be colder than normal, sunshine should return for the weekend.  Furthermore, we’ll enjoy a southerly flow of air by Sunday which may help temperatures reach close to 60!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Less than 1″

twicFor weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

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Mar 22

Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going…

It was a cold winter across the Lower 48, including Indiana:

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March has followed suite, month-to-date:  Cold continues for the majority of the upcoming week, but we note moderating late week temperatures.

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It’s been dry as of late, but after a snowy winter, the region is doing just fine from a drought perspective.  We note abnormally dry conditions west:

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Latest CFSv2 data points to a wet spring ahead.  We also note the latest European weeklies suggesting a potentially “busy” 1st half of April, including a couple of “bowling ball” systems of note.  With the changing seasons, it’s not unusual to see big spring cut off lows slowly moving through portions of the country.

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Note the GFS (7-day) and Canadian (10-day) precipitation forecast:

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We also are still forecasting light snow Tuesday.  Most of this won’t accumulate with the high sun angle and low snowfall rates, but a brief coating to less than an inch is possible in spots:

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