Feb 15
* Your full, updated, 7-Day Forecast will be published later tonight. 1.) In the long range, credit the Canadian model for being spot on with yesterday’s snow storm. It was…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/15/saturday-morning-notes/
Feb 13
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Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
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19/ 27 |
6/ 26 |
14/ 30 |
23/ 40 |
22/ 43 |
32/ 50 |
38/ 62 |
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2-5″ |
1″ |
0.00” |
0.40″ |
0.00″ |
0.00″ |
0.50″ |
Forecast Updated 02.14.14 @ 11:00a
Accumulating Valentine’s Day Snow…The Canadian led the charge and other modeling has followed suit. The region will deal with accumulating snow Valentines Day as low pressure moves southeast out of Missouri into the Tennessee Valley. We think snow will fall at a good clip, periodically heavy, and begin around mid morning around the city. In fact, a strip of 2-5″ of snow is likely to be laid down between Indianapolis and Louisville later today. Latest radar trends from upstream and banding features suggest snowfall amounts may reach 6″ along the I-70 corridor. Needless to say, if you have travel plans this afternoon plan for snow covered roads and slick travel.
A fresh shot of arctic air will drill south into the region tonight and result in Saturday “wake up” temperatures in the single digits with a biting northwest wind.
Another Fast Moving Clipper…After a mostly dry Saturday, we forecast light snow to build back into the region Saturday night into early Sunday. This will only be a light snow event and most amounts will be in the dusting to 1″ category. The sun should quickly return Sunday afternoon, though it’ll remain colder than normal.
Foggy Start To The Week…As a southerly air flow transports milder air north and over the snow pack across central Indiana fog will develop. It’s possible some freezing drizzle is dealt with Monday morning before temperatures rise above freezing. Prepare for a downright gloomy start to the work week. A cold front will push through the region Monday evening and lead to a period of showers, potentially transitioning to light snow or a light wintry mix Monday night as cold air sweeps back in.
A Spring Tease…A spring tease will have many Hoosiers wanting to break out the shorts by the mid week period. In fact, highs will zoom into the 60s Thursday, courtesy of a strong and gusty southwest breeze. The downside? A line of showers and gusty thunderstorms later in the day. While we still have a week to monitor this situation, the possibility is there for a few storms to reach severe levels across the Ohio Valley region. Stay tuned as we monitor this developing weather situation.
Looking longer term, we anticipate the briefly milder spring “tease” to be just that. Signals are increasingly favorable for a prolonged period of cold, wintry conditions building back into the region as we put a wrap on February and head into March.
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/13/valentines-day-snow/
Feb 13
This will be quick this morning, due to time, but we’ll have your complete 7-Day forecast posted tonight. We’re continuing to monitor the weather situation Friday. The Canadian has led…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/13/snowy-friday-on-tap-for-some/
Feb 12
There’s no doubt we’re looking at a brief pattern change next week that will result in air temperatures that will have many of you craving spring. That said, the key word in that sentence is “brief” and a colder, more wintry pattern looks to return to wrap up February and head into March.
Before we discuss the return of the cold and potentially wintry regime for late month, let’s focus on the milder conditions. Data suggests we may be looking at highs zooming all the way into the lower to middle 60s towards the 20th-23rd time period. The spring tease is likely to come at a cost as the milder southerly breezes likely result in lots of dense fog and areas of drizzle as a deep snowpack remains locked in place. Flooding concerns may also become a concern next week, especially if we inject moderate to heavy rain into the region. 10-day rainfall numbers do have to make us a little nervous as a blend of model data suggests 1″-1.5″ down between now and the 22nd. We’ll continue to monitor things.
Finally, it should be noted that while a brief “relaxation” of the seemingly unending winter is on the way, the long term pattern continues to suggest a cold and wintry time of things continues overall. Next week appears to be an “island of warmth in a sea of cold” type pattern. Latest ensemble data continues to back this idea up. That’s not saying we’re going to deal with the type of severe cold we’ve seen over the past several weeks, but instead means we’re going to go back below normal as we get set to wrap up February and head into March.
The latest GFS ensembles show the evolution of things well. The “double secret probation” European model also shows something similar.
Note the ridge and associated spring “tease” is replaced with a cold and more wintry looking eastern trough rather quickly. Circle the 24th on your calendar for the potential of a widespread storm system. Far too early for details or questions, but the pattern looks to produce some busy times around this point. Before that we have plenty of weather in front of us to deal with… weekend snow opportunities, foggy/ drizzly weather to accompany the initial surge of milder air next week, and a spring tease by late next week!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/12/next-weeks-spring-tease-is-just-that-a-tease/
Feb 12
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Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
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Mon. |
Tue. |
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0/ 27 |
9/ 36 |
21/ 28 |
8/ 27 |
17/ 32 |
24/ 42 |
28/ 46 |
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0.00” |
0.00″ |
1-3″ |
1-2″ |
0.00″ |
0.50″ |
0.20″ |
Forecast Updated 02.12.14 @ 7:50a
Midweek Moderation…While still cold (and still below normal), temperatures will begin to moderate from the frigid readings of the past few days. Additionally, we’ll continue to enjoy sunny skies both today and Thursday, though we’ll add a gusty southwest breeze into the mix Thursday.
Accumulating Late Week Snow…We’re eyeing two fast moving clipper systems that will deliver accumulating snow for late week. The first snow event moves in Friday followed by a second snow maker Saturday. Both have the potential to produce a couple inches of snow across the region and we’ll be able to fine tune these amounts over the next day, or so.
Rainy And Milder…A push of milder air will move in early next week. Unfortunately, the milder air will come at a cost. With the heavy snow pack on the ground combined with the warmer air moving in from the southwest we’ll be looking at a gloomy period, including a couple waves of rain.
A push of colder air will swoosh back in here Tuesday night and could lead to a wintry mix before precipitation end. Looking longer term, we’re still expecting a “taste of spring” late next week!
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/12/accumulating-valentines-day-snow/
Feb 12
With today’s latest forecast model runs in house, we have excellent run-to-run consistency, the only problem is, that run-to-run consistency amongst each model continues to disagree with one another. We…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/12/snowy-weekend-ahead-or-not/
Feb 11
A developing weather situation warrants our attention tonight and that’s the potential of a snow event Valentine’s Day. The Canadian has led the way with this system and other forecast model data is beginning to follow it’s lead, slowly, but surely :-).
While we have time to continue to fine tune things, the trend is certainly one for the snowier over the past 12 hours. That’s not saying we have complete agreement amongst all forecast models, but the overall pattern is one that has to at least raise an eye brow for accumulating snow potential across central Indiana Friday.
A clipper system will dive southeast out of Canada and into the Dakotas Thursday. It’ll race southeast through the Plains states and into Missouri as early as Friday before tracking into the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys’ Saturday morning. Clipper systems can always be challenging to track, but especially during the late winter and spring months. The combination of lingering winter chill and the resurgent spring warmth can turn what may seem like a “harmless” wet snow event into a full-blown snow storm with little warning if one’s not paying attention. That’s not saying this is the case with this particular event, but it is saying we have a close eye on things. This will come on the front end of a brief, but significant, pattern change that will promote warmer than normal conditions across the region next week. The tight thermal gradient can essentially help fuel this system as it moves southeast (whether or not this makes “the turn” and adds to the snow pack along the East Coast is yet to be seen). Temperatures Saturday may approach 50 degrees across southwest Missouri Friday while here, across the “snow fields” of central Indiana, we remain locked in the 20s.
For now we’ll refrain from hoisting snowfall potential, but suggest you keep a close eye on the Friday and Saturday forecast and plan for the likelihood of at least some accumulation. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/11/o-canada/
Feb 11
Tue. Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. -12/ 1 0/ 27 9/ 36 22/ 30 12/ 28 14/ 29 25/ 39 0.00” 0.00″ 0.00”…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/11/tracking-late-week-snow/
Feb 10
With a deep snow pack in place, calm winds, clear skies, and arctic high pressure settling over head tonight, the stage is set for a record breaking cold night. In fact, the coldest air in the country will settle over eastern MN, WI, and down into central IL and IN tonight. We note latest forecast data suggesting some air temperatures tonight “not fit for man nor beast…” Both the RAP and HRRR forecast lows in the city to plummet to between 15 and 20 degrees below zero. Note the graphics below aren’t even extended until the 7-8 o’clock time period, or normally the coldest time of the morning when official lows typically take place.
While our official low isn’t forecast at 20 below zero, we do forecast an official low in the city at 12 degrees below zero and note many outlying areas may flirt with 15-20 degrees below zero by morning. Certainly, a brutal night is ahead with arctic high pressure settling in…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/10/core-of-coldest-air-settles-over-central-indiana-tonight/
Feb 10
After a dry period through early to mid week, our weather pattern will begin to turn active yet again as we head into late week and this weekend. Three of our more trusted mid range computer models handle the individual impulses of energy differently and the snow potential ranges anywhere from nothing more than 1″ to as much as 10″ in the Friday-Tuesday period. Most likely, we’re looking at something somewhere in the middle.
Our first chance of accumulating snow arrives Friday. Both the European forecast model and Canadian forecast model agree on this, while the latest GFS takes the same energy through the Great Lakes, missing our region entirely. We feel the GFS may be in error mode here. While it’s possible the GFS may lead the way (anything is possible this far off), we feel the EC and Canadian have a better handle on things and we’ve based our forecast (post below) off a blend of these two models for Friday, including accumulating snow.
Our next shot of accumulating snow blows in Saturday. All three models agree on this, but handle the track of the low, another clipper system, differently. The Canadian tracks the low south of IND, strengthens it on it’s journey east and results in a full blown snow storm here Saturday. The GFS and EC remain weaker and track the low across central or northern parts of the state, with much lighter snow amounts here.
You can find your completed 7-Day forecast in the post below this one. Finally, there are some signs the pattern may begin to relax and allow a milder brand of air into the region around the 20th. We caution though that this won’t be a “suddenly it’s spring” pattern, but rather a tease of sorts as longer term signals suggest a wintry regime returns late February into March…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/10/watching-the-pattern-turn-active-yet-again/
