February 10, 2014 archive

Feb 10

Core Of Coldest Air Settles Over Central Indiana Tonight.

With a deep snow pack in place, calm winds, clear skies, and arctic high pressure settling over head tonight, the stage is set for a record breaking cold night.  In fact, the coldest air in the country will settle over eastern MN, WI, and down into central IL and IN tonight.  We note latest forecast data suggesting some air temperatures tonight “not fit for man nor beast…” Both the RAP and HRRR forecast lows in the city to plummet to between 15 and 20 degrees below zero.  Note the graphics below aren’t even extended until the 7-8 o’clock time period, or normally the coldest time of the morning when official lows typically take place.

hrrr_t2m_min_indy_16rap_t2m_city_scentus_12

While our official low isn’t forecast at 20 below zero, we do forecast an official low in the city at 12 degrees below zero and note many outlying areas may flirt with 15-20 degrees below zero by morning.  Certainly, a brutal night is ahead with arctic high pressure settling in…

gfs_precip_mslp_east_7

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/10/core-of-coldest-air-settles-over-central-indiana-tonight/

Feb 10

Watching The Pattern Turn Active Yet Again…

After a dry period through early to mid week, our weather pattern will begin to turn active yet again as we head into late week and this weekend.  Three of our more trusted mid range computer models handle the individual impulses of energy differently and the snow potential ranges anywhere from nothing more than 1″ to as much as 10″ in the Friday-Tuesday period.  Most likely, we’re looking at something somewhere in the middle.

Our first chance of accumulating snow arrives Friday.  Both the European forecast model and Canadian forecast model agree on this, while the latest GFS takes the same energy through the Great Lakes, missing our region entirely.  We feel the GFS may be in error mode here.  While it’s possible the GFS may lead the way (anything is possible this far off), we feel the EC and Canadian have a better handle on things and we’ve based our forecast (post below) off a blend of these two models for Friday, including accumulating snow.

00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_108f96

Our next shot of accumulating snow blows in Saturday.  All three models agree on this, but handle the track of the low, another clipper system, differently.  The Canadian tracks the low south of IND, strengthens it on it’s journey east and results in a full blown snow storm here Saturday.  The GFS and EC remain weaker and track the low across central or northern parts of the state, with much lighter snow amounts here.

00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_120f120 gfs_namer_135_500_vort_ht_s

You can find your completed 7-Day forecast in the post below this one.  Finally, there are some signs the pattern may begin to relax and allow a milder brand of air into the region around the 20th.  We caution though that this won’t be a “suddenly it’s spring” pattern, but rather a tease of sorts as longer term signals suggest a wintry regime returns late February into March…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/10/watching-the-pattern-turn-active-yet-again/

IndyWx.com