November 21, 2013 archive

A Closer Look At Thanksgiving Week

Today’s model data continues the theme of a southern and eastern storm for the days surrounding Thanksgiving.  We’ll continue to monitor for any potential shift northwest, but as of now, the trend remains for a “suppressed” storm track.  Here’s a look at the individual GFS ensemble members, off today’s 12z run.  Taken at face value, 3 out of 10 members show some light snow in the air.

f132

For now, the big story still appears to be the unseasonably cold air around for Thanksgiving.  The ECMWF, Canadian, and American models (GFS and NAM) continue to hammer home the idea of a frigid Thanksgiving ahead (relative to the time of year, of course).  I’m not convinced we won’t have to deal with some light snow next week at some point, but for now, the bigger story still appears to be  impressive early season cold, and this cold pattern isn’t going away anytime soon.

The latest European forecast data illustrates this well.  Note each and every day is well below normal, aside from tomorrow (cold air pushes in tomorrow PM).  This is a snap shot of the average temperature (in degrees C) over the upcoming 10 day period.  The blues, greens, and purples showcase the cold, relative to average.

tavg_anom_ecmwf_mc_1

 

 

 

 

 

 

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A Closer Look At Thursday

* A video update was posted late last night and talks about the rain, bitterly cold weekend ahead, and  looks at Thanksgiving.  Scroll below for that update.

Today will feature scattered light to moderate rain, but as noted last night, that rain will grow more widespread tonight.  The latest HRRR simulated radar shows that well.

hrrr_ref_indy_14

High temperatures today are forecast to reach the middle 50s, per the latest HRRR.

hrrr_t2m_max_indy_10

We’re still tracking major league early season arctic air due in here this weekend.  Take a look at just how far below normal these temperatures are come Sunday (shown in degrees celsius).  Wow!  Our forecast high of 24 will be the coldest November day in 13 years and a whopping 25 degrees below normal!  Thanks, as always, to Weatherbell Analytics model suite for this data.

gfs_t2max_anom_ma_29

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/21/a-closer-look-at-thursday/

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